Cricket World Cup

Australia v South Africa World Cup semi-final tips: More pain for Saffers

Heinrich Klaasen
Klaasen is worth a bet at 5/1

Ed Hawkins says South Africa could struggle in a chase at Eden gardens on Thursday and also finds bets at 10/3 and 5/1...

Australia v South Africa
Thursday 16 November, 08:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Australia v South Africa World Cup semi-final team news

Australia have grown into the tournament and are now sure of their best XI. With Travis Head fit there is no room for Marnus Labuschagne. Mitchell Starc is expected to return to the team after being rested for Sean Abbott against Bangladesh.

Probable XI: Warner, Head, M Marsh, Smith, Inglis, Maxwell, Stoinis, Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood, Zampa

South Africa are not sure of their best XI. Temba Bavuma is a fitness doubt meaning Reeza Hendricks could come in. With the ball, Andile Phehlukwayo put his hand up against Afghanistan. That puts the expensive Lungi Ngidi in jeopardy. Or they could include spinner Tabraiz Shamsi.

Possible XI: De Kock, Hendricks, van der Dussen, Markram, Klaasen, Miller, Jansen, Phehlukwayo, Mahraj, Coetzee, Rabada

Australia v South Africa World Cup semi-final pitch report

If England can get 337 on this ground it suggests it's flat. India 326 versus South Africa, who in turn were bowled out for 83. We expect the toss winner to bat first and 310 or 320 should be the minimum. We're happy to play for a high-scoring dig regardless of who bats first. Both teams to score 300 has some appeal at 9/43.25.

Australia v South Africa World Cup semi-final match odds

Australia are 1.774/5, which is a slight cut. South Africa are 2.265/4. The sides have met four times this year with South Africa winning four, including an easy win at the beginning of this tournament. So why are they outsiders?

Well, the market doesn't trust South Africa in knockouts. It also knows Australia fight to the last (see Afghanistan).

We suspect that South Africa are a one-dimensional outfit who must bat first. Against Netherlands and India they were awful in the chase. Against Pakistan and Afghanistan they muddled through.

If the toss goes their way we can bet Australia with confidence and also expect that they come back to that 1.804/5 price at some point before the start.

Back Australia batting first @ 1.804/5

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Australia v South Africa World Cup semi-final player bets

There are two bets on the top-bat markets. Heinrich Klaasen is giving us a sizeable edge on two-year win rate versus price at Sportsbook's 5/16.00. We'll also take the boosted 10/34.33 on David Warner for top Aussie which affords us more than 7% points in win rate.

Back Heinrich Klaasen top SA bat @ 5/16.00

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Read Ed's Australia and South Africa semi-final analysis here

Lusten to the Cricket...Only Bettor crew on Australia v South Africa here...

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Ed Hawkins P-L

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