Cricket World Cup

India v New Zealand World Cup Tips: Kiwis are a value bet to pull off shock win

Rohit Sharma
Rohit is boosted to [3/1]

Our cricket tipster Ed Hawkins is in profit by almost 12 points at the 2023 World Cup and he is shooting for the stars by predicting the mother of all upsets in Mumbai on Wednesday


India v New Zealand
Wednesday 15 November, 08:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

India v New Zealand World Cup semi-final team news

India are unbeaten but it's forgotten that they are not perfectly balanced following the loss of all-rounder Hardik Pandya. Mohammad Shami at No 8 and only five bowlers isn't ideal. Hence them desperately trying to audition a sixth option against the Netherlands.

Probable XI: Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Shreyas, Rahul, Yadav, Jadeja, Shami, Kuldeep, Bumrah, Siraj

New Zealand are patched-up somewhat. Kane Williamson looks pretty close to full fitness, Tim Southee has recovered from a finger fracture and Lockie Ferguson has had a niggle. Key pacer Matt Henry has returned home. They may well be reliant on a big performance from a Wiliamson or Trent Boult.

Probable XI: Conway, Ravindra, Williamson, Mitchell, Phillips, Latham, Chapman, Santner, Southee, Ferguson, Boult

India v New Zealand World Cup semi-final pitch report

The Wankhede looks like a very flat surface. More than 350 has been busted in three out of four. And the odd one out was a mighty effort of 291 by Afghanistan against Australia. We expect runs first up. Taking on the Kiwi par line for 290-300 or more could be a solid option. We also expect death-over runs. Adding 120, 130 and 140 to the runs lines in the last ten is fair for India.

India v New Zealand World Cup semi-final match odds

Are New Zealand the side which has given India the biggest scare? Probably. In Dharamsala the Kiwis were poised for more than 300 before they were squeezed by Mohammad Shami and Jasprit Bumrah.

If they bat first they have the talent and the tools to breach such a score. Then it will be all about getting the ball to zip under lights.

Their Betfair Exchange odds could offer a trade from 3.711/4. But we'll simply have a small stake that they cause the mother of all shocks.

We've mentioned India's balance and there is sonething perturbing about their stroll to the semis. Where's the jeopardy, the pressure, the requirement to think on their feet? When all that is cranked up, how do they react?

Perhaps they go into overdrive and recall the four straight wins against the Kiwis in India this year. We shall see but there's a hint of value on the visitors.

Back New Zealand @ 3.7011/4

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India v New Zealand World Cup semi-final player bets

Virat Kohli is boosted to 16/5 by Sportsbook for top India bat but it's wrong price by only 0.5% on win rate. Rohit Sharma gives us 4.5% at 3/14.00 and Shubman Gill 4.5 (a double against New Zealand this year) at 7/24.50.

For the Kiwis Devon Conway's boost to 7/24.50 gives us a shade under 4% points on two-year win rate.

With the ball, Trent Boult and Mohammad Shami have strong head-to-heads. Boult returns 54% of the time and is 11/43.75. Shami gets a 3/14.00 quote.


Now read Ed's semi-final verdict on each team here


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Ed Hawkins P-L

2023: +40.93
2022:+16.79
2021: +29.41pts
2020: +5.91pts
2019: +37.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pt

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