Super Bowl Betting: Why the Arizona Cardinals will defeat the Steelers...

Super Bowl / The Betfair Contrarian / 21 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

The Contrarian is rarely wrong when it comes to the NFL. He prophesised the New York Giants' Super Bowl success, the New England Patriots' failure to win the AFC and the New Orleans Saints' victory at Wembley. The Arizona Cardinals may be considered little more than a doormat on the Pittsburgh Steelers path to Superbowl victory, but the Contrarian has a vision: Cardinals [3.4 on Betfair] to win.

It's better to start slowly and improve

In each of the last three seasons the finalist that won fewer games in the regular season has gone on to win the Super Bowl. Three years ago the Steelers had won 11 regular season games to the Seattle Seahawks' 13, two years ago the Indianapolis Colts won 12 to the Chicago Bears' 13 and last year the New York Giants won ten to the New England Patriots' perfect sixteen. This year the Arizona Cardinals won just nine matches in the regular season compared to the Steelers 12 and the trend suggests that it's better to start slowly and build momentum through the playoffs than to open at a high standard and struggle to maintain it.

The Gruden Effect

Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt worked as both a tight ends coach and offensive co-ordinator for the Steelers between 2001 and 2006. The last time a coach came up against a former club in the Super Bowl so soon after leaving them was six years ago when Jon Gruden masterminded the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' victory over the Oakland Raiders, who he had left at the start of the season. Many pundits believed that Gruden's knowledge of the Raiders set-up played a major part in the underdogs' triumph. Whisenhunt will not be short of insider knowledge that could give his team the edge.

The Cardinals won the last encounter

The two sides met in September 2007 shortly after Whisenhunt had taken charge of Arizona and it was the Cardinals who triumphed 21-14. The Steelers arrived in fantastic form having won their first three matches of the season 34-7, 26-3 and 37-16 while the Cardinals had won just one of their first three, indicating that Whisenhunt's knowledge of the Steelers helped tilt the balance in their favour.

Quarterbacks are the key, so the Cardinals have the advantage

There's no doubt the QB is the difference maker - quarterbacks have been crowned MVP on 22 occasions, fifteen times more than any other position, and the Cardinals' Kurt Warner knows what it takes, having been crowned MVP nine years ago for the St. Louis Rams. The Steelers may have the best defence in the league and love to blitz, but who leads the league with fourteen touchdown passes against the blitz? Warner.

Warner has the edge over Ben Roethlisberger

Last year's encounter between the Cardinals and Steelers was Warner's first meeting with Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, and he was victorious after an error-free game, while Roethlisberger tossed two interceptions. There are also doubts over Roethlisberger's ability to perform on the big stage after he had a terrible game when the Steelers won the Super Bowl three years ago. He completed just nine of 21 passes for 123 yards and two interceptions. His passer rating of 22.6 on that day was the lowest ever recorded by a winning quarterback.

Larry Fitzgerald is on fire

When the Steelers won the Super Bowl three years ago it was their wide receiver Hines Ward who won the MVP award, but this year it is opposite number Larry Fitzgerald who looks like playing a decisive role. When faced the Steelers last year they had the third best passing defence in the league and he still caught the ball 11 times for 123 yards. This post-season he has five touchdown catches and has broken the record for the most receiving yards (419) ever in a post season. Previous record holder Jerry Rice won the Super Bowl with the San Francisco 49ers in 1988, the year he achieved the feat, as well as being crowned Super Bowl MVP.