Super Bowl 60 Betting Tips: Pick the Patriots with the points in Seahawks showdown

• Underdogs have fine recent record so Pats preferred with the points

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Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots
Sunday 8 February, 23:30 kick-off
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
Live on Sky Sports & Channel 5

Moneyline: Seahawks 4/91.44 | Patriots 7/42.75
Handicap: Seahawks -4.5 
Points total: +45.5

It's been one of the most surprising NFL seasons in years so it's only right we've got a Super Bowl nobody really expected. The Seattle Seahawks were dark horses but nobody saw Mike Vrabel turning the New England Patriots around from two four-win seasons into contenders for the Lombardi Trophy.

Seattle are large 4.5-point favourites, which in Super Bowl terms is a sizeable handicap as there's been nothing bigger for 16 years. Four other teams have been 4.5-point favourites in that spell with all four failing to cover that spread, and three of them losing outright!

So beware these Patriots, who are going for a record seventh Super Bowl title and revelling in the rare underdog role after being favourites in seven of their last eight appearances in the big game.

Vrabel won it three times as a player with the Pats so knows what it takes and he has that experience advantage over Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald, in just his second season in the job.

Stats wise there's not too much between them, they both had 14-3 records, won eight games on the road and ended up with the best two scoring defences in the league at just over 17 points a game allowed - so that in itself doesn't scream shootout.

Super Bowl stats point to tight contest 

The relatively low points total tells us that, with 45.5 the lowest for a decade and maybe that's a combination of not only these defences but the fact unders has landed in five of the last seven Super Bowls.

New England's last victory in 2019 was a 13-3 defensive street fight with just three first-half points, so going under 20.5 points in the first half at 1/12.00 might be worth a look, and overall the game is most likely shaping up to be a low scorer. 

If you're into trends then New England's decision to wear their white away kit despite being the 'home' team is of interest. The Pats are 3-1 in their past four Super Bowls all of which sporting white jerseys, while teams in white have won 18 of the last 26 Super Bowls.

It's the players wearing the jerseys who decide the game though. Seattle have the better attacking options, so good that some believe they'll blow the Pats away, but neither side has been blown out this year and favourites have a poor record in covering Super Bowl spreads.

The underdogs have lifted the Super Bowl in four of the last five, and covered the spread in all five of those games. And since 2010 underdogs have gone 11-5 outright, with the Bengals losing but covering against the Rams.

In short, Super Bowl winners usually also win against the spread, so although I think Seattle have the better side, rightly favourites and if I had to pick a winner it'd probably be them, I can't see them winning by that much and 4.5 points is a lot in a low-scoring contest, so I'm more comfortable taking the points with the Patriots.   

Who will score a Super Bowl touchdown?

Both of these sides had a kick-off return touchdown in the regular season, with Seattle having that memorable opening kick-off score against the 49ers in the play-offs.

Both teams also had two punt return touchdowns this season so they both have dangerous returners and a sound special teams unit, while they've also had three defensive touchdowns each during the campaign.

With Darnold having interception issues and Maye a case of the fumbles in the post-season then 2/13.00 on a defensive or special teams touchdown looks a decent shout.

In the anytime touchdown market, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is 10/111.91 and has looked impossible to guard in the post-season, while running back Kenneth Walker seems almost inevitable but is priced that way at 8/151.53.

For the Pats, rookie TreVeyon Henderson is 9/25.50 and is explosive. He led the team with 10 touchdowns ahead of 11/82.38 shot Rhamondre Stevenson, but his inability to block meant he hardly played against Denver so could be a risk.

Maye has spread the ball about so there's no favourite receiving option - Kayshon Boutte has shown a love of the spectacular so at 16/54.20 he could be value, but tight end Hunter Henry is the top red zone target and paced the team with eight receiving touchdowns this season.

Henry is 23/103.30 to score anytime.

But perhaps the pick of the lot is for the quarterback Drake Maye to find the end zone himself at 11/43.75.

Maye ran it in four times during the regular season and he's the only Patriot to score a rushing touchdown in the play-offs. He's got the trust of the coaches to call his number down in the red area and he's got a decent combination of speed and strength.

In the biggest game of all you need the ball in the hands of your big players, and Maye look like the type of guy who'll relish the responsibility.

Now read what Betfair Exchange punters are predicting at Super Bowl 60