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Defensive stars could be value play in MVP market
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Back Maye & Darnold rushing totals in best player props
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Who will win the Super Bowl MVP?
So with both quarterbacks having good back stories and seven of the last 10 Super Bowl MVPs being triggermen then naturally enough it's the QBs who head the market with Sam Darnold 6/52.20 and Drake Maye next best at 23/103.30.
It's 4/111.36 that either quarterback wins the MVP with a wide receiver being next up at 4/15.00 - the last two non-quarterbacks to win the award were both receivers and one of them is playing in this game, with Seattle's Cooper Kupp a huge 100/1101.00 shot to do it again.
The league's best receiver, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, is the shortest price non-QB at 11/26.50 and he's proven to be almost impossible to cover in the post-season, but he'll have to make some spectacular catches or serious yards after the catch to stop Darnold getting the nod, as quarterbacks mainly get all the credit.
Running back Kenneth Walker seems the most likely non-QB to win the MVP vote at 15/28.50 after two big games in the play-offs where he registered 145 and 111 total yards and four touchdowns. He's an electric runner who'll have plenty of touches in the run and pass game and some of the moves he can produce can catch the eye.
He also doesn't need Darnold to shine, and another game like his hat-trick outing against the 49ers in a Seahawks win would give him a great chance of becoming the first running back MVP since Terrell Davis in 1998.
Any defensive player to win MVP at 17/29.50 could be a decent shout given there are game wreckers on both sides, most notably Seattle's DeMarcus Lawrence at 100/1101.00 and 275/1276.00 shot Milton Williams, who had a huge game for the Eagles against the Chiefs in last year's Super Bowl and signed a record deal in New England.
Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis are ace cornerbacks capable of a crucial pick-six and Harold Landry is the sack leader for the Pats, while Seattle's Nick Emmanwori can do everything from safety and Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy are also defensive talents.
It's more than likely the winning QB that'll get the nod, but Walker is certainly worth a look and there's value in a defensive winner - the more adventurous out there could play very small stakes on Lawrence and Williams.
Back any defensive player to win MVP
Paul Higham's five best Super Bowl player prop bets
Love this one to start with as former Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp has landed this in both play-off games and he's set for a decent outing here as the Patriots will try and limit Jaxon Smith-Njigba as much as possible. Having a receiver with Kupp's quality as a second option is a luxury for Sam Darnold and I wouldn't even stop you backing him for 5+ receptions at 3/14.00.
Back Cooper Kupp 4+ receptions
The Patriots have a decent run defence but I really want to back the excellent Walker so we'll take his receiving yards and he's eclipsed this mark in the last three games, easily in two, and as New England bring the heat Sam Darnold will check it down to a safe pair of hands out of the backfield, who has got some nasty moves and could get most if not all of this yardage in one chunk play.
I'm just doing singles here but a Bet Builder worth backing is Walker & Kupp to both have 4+ receptions at 11/26.50.
Back Kenneth Walker over 20.5 receiving yards
I always look for QB rushing attempts in the Super Bowl. Absolutely everything is on the line and with the Patriots defence sure to bring pressure on him even a QB not known as an athlete like Sam Darnold will have to just tuck it and run at some stage. Even when it's not been the biggest game of the season he's had three or more rushes in six of the last seven so when the chips are down here I expect him to hit this with ease.
Back Sam Darnold over 2.5 rush attempts
Drake Maye's had nine games with at least one run of 14 yards or more, and I wouldn't put it past him to break off another decent chunk play with the Super Bowl on the line. He's had a few big ones in the play-offs, a 37 yarder against the Chargers and 28 yarder in Denver so although Seattle's defence is as good as it gets, sometimes there's no stopping a QB with mobility like Mayes.
Back Drake Maye longest rush over 13.5 yards
He's New England's downfield threat and the Rams showed that Seattle's secondary can get beat over the top after all, having previously enjoyed a decent run without allowed a 20-yard chunk play or longer. Boutte's made some brilliant catches this season and in 10 of his 17 games he's had a reception longer than this spread so hopes are high with this one.
Back Kayshon Boutte longest reception over 17.5 yards