Super Bowl 59 Prediction: Back Chiefs to make history and more Mahomes MVP magic

• Back Chiefs to win Super Bowl three-peat in 9/43.25 shootout

• Eagles tight end a sound 3/14.00 shout to score a touchdown

• If Chiefs make history Mahomes looks guaranteed to bag MVP award

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Betfair Super Bowl SuperBoost 

Betfair punters can enjoy a very special SuperBoost for the Sunday night spectacular. 

Eligible customers will be able to back both teams to score in the first quarter at boosted odds of 6/42.50 rather than even money. 

The bet would have been a winner in the two teams' last five meetings.

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Kansas City Chiefs v Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday 9 February, 23:35 kick-off
Live on Sky Sports

Match Odds: 4/5 | 1/1
Spread: Chiefs -1.5
Total Points: 48.5

It's revenge or repeat in New Orleans. Or should that be revenge or three-peat? The Kansas City Chiefs can make history by claiming a third Super Bowl in a row if they can beat the Philadelphia Eagles - just as they did in the big game two years ago.

And the Chiefs are slight favourites at 4/51.80 to win the Super Bowl despite it widely being recognised that the Eagles have the better team.

The number one defence, a fearsome pass rush, two genuinely elite wide receivers, a dual-threat quarterback and in Saquon Barkley possibly one of the best running backs of all time. When you list it like that the 1/12.00 on the Eagles winning the Super Bowl raises eyebrows.

And still, even with all the heavy artillery, they'll probably have to play the perfect game to beat this winning machine Andy Reid has compiled in Kansas City. Quarter-back Patrick Mahomes is 17-3 in the play-offs and in his fifth Super Bowl in seven seasons as starter. A team with that championship DNA just keeps finding ways to win.

Like a glory-hunting part time fan, Travis Kelce was hardly spotted in the regular season but is everywhere in the play-offs. Steve Spagnuolo's defence has been the star of the team and even when scored upon they have pulled off some life-saving stops just at the right time.

The last two Chiefs appearances and the last two Eagles Super Bowls have seen the overs land, and a repeat of their 38-35 shootout would be no surprise.

In terms of handicaps and margins of victory, the Chiefs to win by 1-6pts at 3/14.00 sounds about right as they are kings of the one-score game.

If backing Philly I'd back something like Eagles -6.5 on the handicap as I think they'll have to blow KC out to get it done. And it's something you could see happening with that roster.

But, ultimately I think it'll be another thriller, and what I firmly believe makes a huge difference is the Chiefs' winning experience. Eight of the Chiefs squad have never lost a play-off game, a lot of the rest have multiple rings, and after some of the tight wins they've enjoyed this season they must feel unbeatable.

Against a team they beat just two years ago at this stage, that counts. And same for the Eagles - the Chiefs' aura leads teams to beating themselves, either trying too hard or playing it too safe when it comes down to it. And that's why until they show me they can beat the Chiefs, when it matters, I have to back the Chiefs to do it yet again.

Who will score a Super Bowl touchdown?

Saquon Barkley is the anytime touchdown favourite at 1/2 after five play-off scores, and he's going to bag another here isn't he? But he's best used in Bet Builders.

I can't see any version of the game where Jalen Hurts doesn't score - and he's 5/6 to score a Super Bowl touchdown again after three in his first appearance two years ago. He's almost automatic from a couple of yards out.

Travis Kelce is 5/42.25 to score his third Super Bowl touchdown 6/5 and, again, most likely as he always seems to get open when Mahomes needs him, but the Chiefs also have the speedy Xavier Worthy and off-season signing Hollywood Brown as options. 

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Only Worthy and Kelce have caught TD passes this post-season and I think Reid will find a way to get the ball into his exciting rookie's hands. The Eagles will know this but sometimes the one thing you can't defend against is just flat out speed and Worthy has that. He is 7/52.40 to score.

DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown are both studs, 17/102.70 Brown seems to be the favoured target, but for me Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert gets the nod as a 3/1 anytime touchdown scorer. He's a red zone threat but also proved he can stiff-arm his way into the end zone from long range too.

Goedert leads the Eagles this post-season in targets, catches, yards and big plays - he's also top with a monstrous 123 yards after the catch. He'll be a huge weapon for Philly on Sunday.

Who will win Super Bowl MVP?

It's really hard to look beyond the favourites here but for once it's not the two quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes obviously leads the way as the 11/102.11 Super Bowl MVP favourite and, although he'd not have won it for most of the Chiefs' games this year, if they win the three-peat the vote will surely go his way.

After all, 33 quarterbacks have won the MVP award, six of the last eight have gone to the league's star position and three of those to Mahomes himself.

Jalen Hurts is 10/34.33 but Saquon Barkley 11/43.75 is favourite for the Eagles and he's undoubtedly been the star of the show in Philly this season. You do wonder though if KC wil sell out to stop him and make Hurts win the game. There's every chance the QB gets the nod if that's the case.

A receiver has won twice in the last six years. I'd count out anyone from the Chiefs as the way Mahomes plays and, with his star name, he'd get the credit even if one of them has a big game. AJ Brown could have a huge game at 30/131.00 but he'd benefit from good throws from Hurts.

There is a scenario where the Chiefs shackle Barkley, make Hurts throw it and Dallas Goedert collects some short passes and turns them into catch-and-run touchdowns to become the first tight end to win Super Bowl MVP at 90/191.00. Unlikely? Yes, but not impossible.

We're only really going to consider defenders if it's a low-scoring affair, Chris Jones 60/161.00 and Jalen Carter 70/171.00 would then be in the thick of it no doubt, but can these two offences really be silenced? File that under doubtful. 

So, as boring as it is, it just has to be one of the top three in the betting. I'd always encourage tagging your MVP bet with their team to win, especially with the teams so close in the market, and remember it's a part fan vote and part media at the stadium who decide.

Those media members often give a name from each team when asked five minutes before the end and say whoever wins gets their vote - and Barkley and Mahomes are loved by both, so although it seems flippant to say it's a shootout between those two, it likely is.

And since we've backed the Chiefs, there's no way they're winning a historic three-peat and the architect of it all, the game changer at quarterback is not walking away with the MVP - again. A three-peat of his own!

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