Super Bowl LVII tips: A complete Eagles squad can pip the Chiefs

• Eagles have record rushing TDs this season

• Patrick Mahomes a playoff underdog for first time in his career

• Mahome & Hurts favourites for MVP award in Arizona

• Back the well-rounded Eagles to edge it at 5/6

Kansas City Chiefs v Philadelphia Eagles

Match Odds: Evens | 5/6
Spread: Eagles -1.5
Points Over/Under: 50.5

Here we go! After 284 NFL games down it's just the big one to go and it could hardly be any better with the two top seeds colliding in Super Bowl LVII in Arizona with nothing to split the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

They're separated by just a whisker in the betting and the alarmingly identical stat lines tell you why - both teams finished as top seeds, both had a 16-3 overall record, both of them scored exactly 546 points, and both had six Pro Bowlers. They've even both got a Kelce brother!

Philly are just fancied after their brutal victory over San Francisco, so it looks like Patrick Mahomes will run out as an underdog in a play-off game for the first time in his career. The fact he's been favourite in all 13 of his previous post-season games speaks volumes for just how good this guy is.

Mahomes is 6-3 as an underdog in his career and Super Bowl underdogs are 8-7 outright and 10-5 against the spread recently, while in terms of points the last four Super Bowls have gone under, as have the last six Eagles play-off games and the last three for the Chiefs.

Complete Eagles worthy favourites

Nick Siriani's outfit have the deepest, most complete roster in the league, with two 1,000-yard receivers, a 1,000-yard rusher and a QB who ran in 10 TDs - coupled with a devastating defence that had the third-most sacks in a single season.

We saw them basically batter the Giants and then wipe out San Francisco's QB options, but now they face probably the best player in the league in Mahomes.

Jalen Hurts' shoulder is a slight worry if the Chiefs manage to shut down their run game and Mahomes gets enough going to drag the Eagles into a mad shootout.

.@Chiefs. @Eagles. #SBLVII is on the horizon! pic.twitter.com/Na9EC0YXmo

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That run game is the worry for KC though, as the Eagles have had their way with teams when they wanted, with a record number of rushing TDs this season - and if they keep that up they'll keep Mahomes off the field and chasing the game.

We've seen this movie before as well, with Mahomes having to run all over the field, mainly backwards, when the Chiefs were bullied by the Buccaneers in their last Super Bowl. Their offensive line is better now but Mahomes' dodgy ankle will get a workout.

This could genuinely go either way, but on balance you have to give the Eagles the edge - they've got more depth and more options to provide more ways of getting the job done.

The Chiefs need Mahomes to produce some magic, Travis Kelce to have another huge game and Chris Jones and Frank Clark to somehow slow down a previously unstoppable run game. It's just too many cards to fall in the right place to back them with any certainty.

A Two-horse race for MVP?

Chances are that either of the 6/5 MVP favourites Hurts or Mahomes will win the MVP, as they're miles out in front in the betting - with Kelce the next best at 13/1.

You can probably forget anyone catching passes from these two QBs though as it's the triggermen who get all the credit - with especially Mahomes who will need to have an incredible game to fire the Chiefs to victory.

Running back Miles Sanders is 20/1 and if he goes for 100 yards and a score in a tight low-scoring game then that's easy enough to see, while on defence Haason Reddick may be a touch of value at 25/1 and the Chiefs' Jones is 40/1.

Haason Reddick had a stellar performance in the NFC title match pic.twitter.com/496XGIdSOG

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Reddick, the 19.5 sack machine, would be the value pick, as he showed in the Championship game that he can be a difference maker as he mauled the 49ers - more of that in Arizona could see him land a big one.

If you have a view on the winner then back the team to win & their QB to bag the MVP, as that's the most likely outcome - but if you fancy an outsider, then Reddick's your man, as he could really wreak havoc on this game and if he does that in a low-scoring Eagles when they he could bring home the bacon at a big price.

Michael Carlson's Bet Builder guide. Watch Below...

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