Man City v Porto: Plenty of work still to be done

Europa League / Jaymes Monte / 21 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Porto can still cause City one or two problems.

"So long as they don’t concede more than one goal – something they have only done twice all season at home – then City will be through to the next round."

Although City are in an extremely strong position Jaymes Monte believes that there may still be some mileage in the tie...

Man City v Porto, KO: 1700 GMT, ESPN, Match Odds: Man City [1.67], Porto [6.2], The Draw [4.0]
Manchester City have one foot in the Europa League last 16 after Sergio Aguero's late strike gave The Citizens an unlikely win in the Estadio do Dragao last week. Porto will now need to become only the third away team to win at the Etihad Stadium since it was renamed as such if they are to remain on course to defend their Europa League crown.

City had gone behind in Portugal last Thursday but battled back through a deflected Yaya Toure cross then an 84th minute tap in from Aguero after good work again from Toure.

The Ivorian's return to the side is a massive boost to Roberto Mancini and City, and comes at an ideal time as Manchester United apply increasing pressure on the domestic front. The Premier League remains Mancini's priority but the Italian is keen to also make an impact in the Europa League, as was evidenced by his team selection last week.

Having not played at the weekend and a home game against Blackburn to come on Saturday there is no reason for Mancini to abandon those philosophies here, he also has the luxury of a fully fit squad and so we should expect a strong City side this midweek.

Porto, on the other hand, do have personnel problems as Alvaro Pereira is unavailable due to suspension and right-back Danilo misses out with a knee injury.

Match Odds
City are quite obviously in the driving seat in the tie, and odds of [1.09] on them progressing to the last-16 quite accurately reflect that. But this tie is far from over. Porto haven't lost a two-legged Europa League (or UEFA Cup) tie since the 2000/01 season; winning the trophy on the two occasions that they have been involved in the competition in the intermitting years.

That may not be enough to warrant backing them to overturn the deficit and qualify for the next round at [11.0], but it is enough to generate some interest in a lay of City at odds of [1.67]. I'm always wary of backing a team that don't need to win, and when odds-on prices are offered in such situations I feel almost obliged to lay them. There is no exception here.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The away goals rule ensures that Porto have to come to Manchester and attack. A 1-0 win would not be enough to see them progress; they must score twice in order to at least remain in the tie.

Whilst that should logically tip the betting in favour of a high-scoring game it is also worth considering the situation from a Manchester City perspective; so long as they don't concede more than one goal - something they have only done twice all season at home - then it is they who will be through to the next round.

Over 2.5 goals is a shade of odds-on at the [1.9] mark with Under 2.5 goals at [2.1]. The best option could be one for In-Play traders who can back the Unders selection pre-match then trade out for a guaranteed profit or a risk-free bet as the game progresses and Porto make the increasingly necessary advances.

To Score
Our Opta stats highlight, interestingly, that Yaya Toure is City's top scorer in Europe this season with three goals. As mentioned above, his return to the club is a timely boost and one that could drive the Citizens to honours later in the season.

Despite his scoring record in continental competition Toure still pops up at double-figure prices in the first goalscorer market, and an even more appealing [4.2] in the To Score market. It may not be one to pile into, but it certainly represents good value.

For the Portuguese side all attentions will be focussed on one man. Hulk has played a part (scored four and assisted two) in six of Porto's eight European goals this season, yet is still available at appealing prices in the goalscorer markets. The Brazilian is around [9.0] to break the deadlock and [3.75] to net at anytime.

Best Bet:
Back Under 2.5 goals @ [2.1], with a view to trade In-Play

Recommended Bets:
Lay Man City to beat Porto @ [1.67]
Back Yaya Toure to score @ [4.2]
Back Hulk to score @ [3.75]