Scolari's Chelsea: Offering plenty of betting options for punters in the side markets

Stats / Andrew Atherley / 05 November 2008 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

Andrew Atherley breaks down the numbers at Chelsea and notes some big differences between Mourinho's vintage and the new era.

What do you get when you cross iron-clad defence with silky-smooth attacking play? The answer is there at the top of the Premier League table: a new-look Chelsea combining a winning approach with the sexy football craved by Roman Abramovich, and offering fresh options for punters.

The change at Chelsea under Luiz Felipe Scolari is hardly as seismic, even in football terms, as the mood that swept Barack Obama into power, but the shift of emphasis at Stamford Bridge has been one of the most significant stories of the season.

Chelsea are averaging 2.45 goals per game in the Premier League, while retaining their defensive solidity by conceding just four goals in 11 matches. It's a potent formula that, outside their Big Four clashes against Manchester United and Liverpool, has been too good for every opponent apart from pre-Redknapp Tottenham, who somehow managed to draw 1-1 at the Bridge in August.

The goals-for column has received most attention, with only Liverpool able to shut out the Blues so far and Chelsea's last six victims outside the Big Four each conceding at least two goals.

Increased scoring power, with no diminution of Chelsea's defensive strength, means that what has emerged under Scolari is an outfit with the potential to offer tremendous value to the Asian handicap backer, where previously very little existed.

Under Scolari, Chelsea have won eight out of nine against non-Big Four teams, with seven of the eight wins coming by two or more goals. Overall, then, they have won seven out of nine against non-Big Four teams by two-plus goals - already closing in on last season's 10 wins by two-plus goals in 32 matches in that category.

The absolute win rate is important, but more significant in Asian handicap terms is the high number of clear-cut wins being recorded by Scolari's Chelsea. This season, in nine games against non-Big Four teams, Chelsea could have been backed on the Asian handicap on lines ranging from -0.5 to -2.0 at odds of around [2.0] and they have had only one handicap loss in those nine games.

That gives Asian handicap backers quite a margin, given that a handicap win rate of anything above 50% would put them in credit.

It is something of a sea change for Chelsea, who did not always press home their superiority in their title-winning seasons under Jose Mourinho. Of their 64 games against non-Big Four teams in those seasons, less than half (31) were won by two-plus goals, representing 63% of their overall wins in that category. The equivalent percentage under Scolari is running at 78%, and Chelsea need win only nine (39%) of their 23 remaining games against non-Big Four teams by two-plus goals to better the equivalent win rate in their title-winning seasons under Mourinho.

What hasn't changed is Chelsea's defensive strength. In Mourinho's first season, they set a Premier League record with only 15 goals conceded in 38 games, and in three subsequent seasons they have conceded 22, 24 and 26. Their number of clean sheets has been fairly steady against non-big four teams - 21 in Mourinho's first season, followed by 16, 20 and 20 - and that underpins their form.

Backing a Chelsea clean sheet in games against non-Big Four teams remains a viable option under Scolari, with seven clean sheets out of nine so far. Based on their average number of shutouts in the past four seasons, the odds on a Chelsea clean sheet against a non-Big Four team should average [1.67].

Goals totals in Chelsea's games against non-Big Four teams are on the rise too, though not as dramatically as their win margins. Five out of nine (56%) under Scolari have had over 2.5 goals, compared with 41% in their two title-winning seasons under Mourinho.

The problem for goals backers is that Chelsea have to do most of the scoring, given their defensive strength. With such a solid foundation, however, there is every chance that Scolari's more attacking approach will continue to bring more clear-cut wins than Chelsea have had in recent seasons.

What does all this mean for Chelsea's title prospects? The signs are good, as their 26 points after 11 games equals their haul in Mourinho's first title-winning season and, though it falls short of the 31 gained the following season, it is ahead of the 25 and 21 in the past two seasons.

Significantly, Chelsea had a clear lead over Manchester United at this stage of both title-winning seasons under Mourinho, as they have this season, but in the past two seasons they were behind eventual winners United. On that basis alone, Chelsea deserve their status as [1.98] favourites for the title.

And they could be underestimated in the Premier League Points market, which has them at [84.0] to sell and [87.0] to buy. In the past four seasons, the average points total of big four teams with 26 or more points at this stage has been 88, and narrowing the sample to only Chelsea and United the average rises to 90.5.

That is backed up by Chelsea's form over the past 38 games, during which they have accumulated 90 points. United's total over the past 38 games is 85 points, which indicates that Chelsea (despite taking only one point out of six in Big Four clashes, both at home, this season) will get very close to the title just by crushing the rest of the league - they have taken 82 points from their last 32 games (equating to a full season) against non-big four teams, and most of those games were under Avram Grant, so they could improve this season under Scolari.