Stats / Bettorlogic / 17 April 2009 / Leave a comment

With only six games left to save his beloved Newcastle United, new boss Alan Shearer needs a win. Do Bettorlogic expect it to come at White Hart Lane on Sunday? Best Bet: Back Tottenham/Tottenham @ [2.78].

Match Odds

After somewhat fortuitously escaping the Britannia Stadium with a point thanks to Andy Carroll's late equaliser, Newcastle now face another stern test with a trip to in-form Tottenham. Spurs have won five of their last seven games -- as well as four of their last five at home -- and have lost only once at home since Harry Redknapp took charge.

Indeed, Spurs have the sixth-best record in the league in the time since Redknapp's appointment, behind Everton and the Big Four, and are W5-D2-L0 at home against everyone but those five in that period (W7-D4-L1 overall). Their recent history against bottom-half sides is very strong as well, going W26-D5-L5 at home against bottom-half finishers from the past three seasons and this season's bottom half teams -- although whether they are as good as Martin Jol's two fifth-placed sides yet (who went W17-D2-L1) is debatable.

Newcastle have won here in both of the last two seasons, which accounts for nearly a quarter of their away wins (W9-D14-L31) since the start of the 2006/07 season. In that time, they are just W2-D6-L19 at top-half finishers and this season's top-half teams and W2-D3-L11 excluding the Big Four (W0-D1-L3 this season).

The only deterrent to backing the home win is the possible difference in motivation for the two sides with Spurs safe and having only the dubious reward of a Europa League place to play for. Historically, top-half but not top-six sides at home to teams in the bottom six in the final 10 games of a Premier League season have won less than half (W44%-D27%-L29%) of the time, although Tottenham are W6-D2-L2 at home in that sample. Still, the gulf in form and this season's figures suggest Spurs are value at [1.73].

Correct score

Half of the games at White Hart Lane since Redknapp's arrival have ended either 0-0 or 1-0 to the home side (both 3/12), with the 1-0 win the only to crop up more than once (2/7) against sides from outside the top six. For Newcastle the 2-1 and 3-1 defeats (both 4/16) dominate their
record away to top-half non-Big Four sides since the start of 2006/07, with all three such defeats this season coming by those scores.

HT/FT

Newcastle have been relatively strong in the first half on the road recently, trailing at the break in only three of their last 10 on the road, although the loss/loss is still their most common double result, both this season against all teams (5/16) and in the last three seasons against top-half non-Big Four sides (6/16 -- including 3/4 this term).

Spurs have had only five half-time leads in their last 22 home matches, although the W/W is the joint-most common HT/FT result under Redknapp along with the D/D -- including four of seven at home to the sides outside the top six. Tottenham/Tottenham looks the way to go here ([2.78]).

Tottenham clean sheet

Perhaps Redknapp's greatest achievement at Spurs has been the transformation at the back --only Liverpool have a better defensive record at home this season than Spurs -- keeping eight clean sheets in his 12 games in charge. Newcastle have scored in over two thirds (11/16) of their games however, as well as in 13 of 16 at top-half non-Big Four sides over the past three seasons. Spurs' defensive record suggests definite value at [2.36] and they have already blanked sides with better attacking records than the Magpies, although it is not strongly recommended.

Newcastle clean sheet

Spurs have failed to score three times in Redknapp's 12 home games but they came against the rather more sturdy backlines of Arsenal, Fulham and Man United. Newcastle have kept three clean sheets on the road this season but just one in 16 at top-half non-Big Four sides over the last three seasons.

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