World Cup Day 19 Tipsheet: Get Mark Stinchcombe's best bets and predictions including an 11/1 treble

Brazil v Japan Tip - Back the Blue Samurai to cause an upset

Click here for Brazil v Japan odds
Monday, 18:00
Live on ITV1

Japan look a fantastic bet at 5.709/2 on the Exchange. In their only test of this tournament, Brazil were torn apart in the first half versus a fluid Morocco and were lucky to get to half-time at 1-1. I'm not sure they can get away with it again.

The Brazilian midfield three of Lucas Paqueta, Bruno Guimaraes and Casemiro is not elite and lacks the legs to get around against the dynamism and fluidity of Japan who often end up with overloads centrally in their hybrid 3-4-3/4-2-3-1/4-4-2 with the Japanese coach Hajime Moriyasu tactically astute.

I think it's safe to say that Ancelotti is still figuring out Brazil's best approach. They will also be without Raphinha who other than Paqueta, is the only starter with a double figure goal return for the national team. For Japan, they have four starters with 10+ goals for their country.

Japan have already beaten Carlo Ancelotti's Brazil 3-2 in October, coming back from 2-0 down to win to show their terrific spirit. That day they outshot the Brazilians 15 - 9, creating much the better chances winning the expected goals battle 2.37 - 1.27.

Japan also beat England at Wembley in a friendly and let's remember at the last World Cup Japan beat both Spain and Germany - both times from a goal down.

Given the odds we even have the security of a draw getting our money back by backing Japan draw no bet at 3/14.00. Don't ever rule out the Blue Samurai.

Germany v Paraguay Tip - Back Germany to rack up the corners

Click here for Germany v Paraguay odds
Tuesday, 21:30
Live on BBC1

Germany's 1/31.33 match odds perfectly illustrates that this is going to be attack versus defence.

The Germans have averaged 61.7% possession so far where as Paraguay just 33.6% - the fifth lowest. Germany are averaging the sixth most shots with 17.7 per-game, with Paraguay conceding the fourth most at 20.0 per-game. Paraguay can be a tough nut to crack as we saw against Turkey but even if Germany find the breakthrough, their relentless style should continue to lead to plenty of opportunities for corners.

Germany hit eight corners in both games they needed to win against Ivory Coast and Curacao and averaged 5.83 corners across their six World Cup qualifiers.

Paraguay conceded 12 corners versus Turkey (albeit with 10 men) but five of those came before the red card on half-time. In similar matches in qualifying, they conceded 11 away at Brazil and nine away at Argentina.

We can back the main Germany line of Over 5.5 at 4/51.80 and also have a swing at what looks like a very attainable Over 8.5 at 19/45.75.

ver 5.5

Netherlands v Morocco Tip - Back goals, goals, goals

Click here for Netherlands v Morocco odds
Wednesday, 02:00
Live on ITV1

Netherlands 23/202.15 to beat Morocco? Not for me. They've failed to win their last eight matches when odds-against over the last two years. And let's not forget Morocco came here having already won AFCON this year and finishing fourth at the last World Cup.

However, whenever I think of the Netherlands I always think of goals. Their results here across a range of opposition prove my point precisely.

• 2-2 v Japan
• 5-1 v Sweden
• 3-1 v Tunisia

It means 17 of their last 23 matches have seen three or more goals (74%) and eight of their last nine major tournament games too. Only six teams have generated a higher expected goals total than Morocco but they can be got at defensively with 24 teams having conceded fewer xG.

The beauty here is the goal expectancy is just 2.35 for some reason which means Over/Under 2.5 goals is not even the most competitive line. Instead, head to the Betfair Exchange and we have the luxury of being able to back Over 2.0 Asian goals at 1.768/11.

The only way we can lose is if there's zero or one goals and there's nothing to suggest either of these two sides are in for such a low scoring game anytime soon.

Stinch's Acca - Back my best bets in a treble at 11/112.00

With Betfair's Bet £10 Get £10 on ACCAs or bet builders at the World Cup let's back my best bets in a treble.

Now read more World Cup tips here!