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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Bolton won't be relegated

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The Betfair Contrarian is at it again: this time arguing why odds-on Bolton will still be playing Premiership football again next season

The Contrarian: Why Bolton won't be relegated

Let's be honest, it's not looking good for Bolton, as you can tell from their current price of [1.47] on Betfair for the drop. Their win against West Ham was their first win at home in over three months, their match-winner Kevin Davies just got suspended for two of their final four games and three of their final four are away from home, where they have only won once all season.

However, someone always climbs out of the death pool at the last minute, and the Contrarian is of the firm belief that Bolton will not be one of the three teams having to discover the quickest route to Swansea next season.

They have a deceptively promising run-in

It would be wrong to suggest that just because they have three away games to come and their away form is dire that they have no hope. The reality is that all of Bolton's remaining games are against clubs who have nothing to play for and are just seeing out the season - first Middlesbrough, then Tottenham, followed by Sunderland and then Chelsea, who will surely be out of the title race come the final day.

At this time of the season relegation-battling teams are often better off playing mid-table teams whose season's work is done rather than clubs near them in the table, as Bolton themselves will no doubt testify after West Ham rolled over for them last weekend.

They have impressive records against most of their opponents

Bolton have only lost on one of their four visits to Stamford Bridge since Roman Abramovich's takeover, winning once and drawing twice. They have also won seven of their last ten league matches with Tottenham and are unbeaten in three home games with Sunderland.

Their poor away form counts for nothing now

The fact Bolton have won just once on the road all season, against Reading, is being over-emphasised. Look back just over a year ago and you will see that West Ham hadn't won away from home all season before winning four of their last five away games, against Blackburn, Arsenal, Wigan and Manchester United.

The one away match they lost was against Sheffield United who they were grappling for position with, while Blackburn, Arsenal and Manchester United had little to play for, which again indicates that Bolton are better off not having to play any relegation six-pointers.

Bolton finish seasons well

Taking last season out of the equation, where they were in transition as Sam Allardyce unexpectedly quit, Bolton have a great record at the close of play. In their last five games of the season from 2002 to 2006 they only lost three games overall, and averaged 6.75 points from their last four games during that period.

They excelled in their last relegation battle

It's been five years since Bolton last came close to being relegated (2002-03) and on that occasion they went on a fantastic run of just one loss in nine at the end of the season to survive.

They were above West Ham on goal difference alone after 29 games but despite the Hammers being on fantastic form, Bolton got the job done at the Reebok and beat them 1-0, handing West Ham their only defeat in their final 11 games.

A bizarre coincidence?

That 1-0 victory over West Ham at the Reebok in 2002-03, which proved the catalyst to survival, came in the 34th game, just as their 1-0 triumph did this season.

History is on their side

In the last seven seasons, every team that has suffered relegation from the Premier League has been in the bottom five at Christmas. This year Bolton were sat comfortably in 14th place.