Premier League / Ed Nicholson / 29 August 2008 / Leave a Comment

Ed Nicholson sees a busy afternoon for keepers everywhere but Villa Park in his 'Over/Under 2.5 Goals' tipping column.

Everton v Portsmouth

Everton have not substantially added to their 2007/8 squad and although without the influential Tim Cahill they have still managed to score four goals in two Premiership games. They have also conceded four.

Portsmouth on the other hand have not scored a goal yet despite adding England strikers Jermain Defoe and Peter Crouch to their squad. However, Harry Rednapp's side have had to play Chelsea and Manchester United in their opening two fixtures.

Last year's fixture between Everton and Portsmouth ended 3-1 to the Toffees, despite the home side playing with just one up front (4-4-1-1). Pompey played with both Defoe and Kanu in a 4-4-2 formation.

It is also interesting to note that Everton travelled to Italy to play Fiorentina in the UEFA Cup just four days later losing 2-0 - where they started with the same XI; Pompey hadn't played for a week and didn't play again for another six days.

This season Harry Redknapp decided to opt for a 4-4-2 formation against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge which proved grossly ineffective and handed the advantage to Chelsea's high class midfield. He criticised himself for his tactical ineptitude that day - but I still feel that he will play two up front against a side like Everton.

Yakubu continues to score his fair share of goals, and as when at Boro, he scores a great majority in front of his home crowd. Last season he grabbed 15 Premiership goals in 29 appearances - nine coming at Goodison. He remains a very important player for Everton, but don't expect him to pass when he has a chance to shoot - 36 shots on target (SOTs), 24 shots off target (SOFFs) and just one assist last year explain what he is all about - goals.

Despite a relatively poor season last year, Mikel Arteta remains hugely influential. He assisted in seven goals during 2007/8, yet only netted once in the Premier League. He has already scored this season and will take most of Everton's free kicks around the penalty area.

This season Portsmouth started poorly against Chelsea but did create chances at Fratton Park against Man Utd - having, for example, seven SOTs. I do have my suspicions about their defence with the ageing Sol Campbell definitely not as good as he has been, and the pace of Everton's attack may cause him problems - especially as fellow defender Younes Kaboul remains a defensive liability.

Recent head-to-heads between these two have resulted in goals. Last season at Goodison it was 3-1, the season before 3-0. In total, three of five fixtures here have been over 2.5 goal affairs.

Portsmouth will be desperate to get both points and goals, being without both at present. Traditionally, Everton play expansive football at home - they are the 6th best Premiership team in terms of goals scored at home in the last two years (1.73 ave goals per home game in 2006/7 and 1.78 in 2007/8). Portsmouth meanwhile had the fourth highest away goals average last season (1.26).

Prediction: I expect to see the goals trend continue in this fixture and will be backing the overs. Team news remains important and obviously I will be ensuring that Redknapp plays two up front before jumping in. If Defoe and Crouch all start for Portsmouth and Yakubu starts for Everton, that [2.34] may look big come 3pm Saturday.

2pts - Everton v Portsmouth over 2.5 goals @ 2.34.


West Ham Utd v Blackburn

Paul Ince returns to Upton Park in charge of a Premiership side for the first time and he will ensure that his Blackburn side know how much that means to him.

West Ham play here on the back of an unfortunate 3-0 defeat at Eastlands - where they played for most of the game with just 10 men against Man City.

The Hammers have eight first team players out of action including, surprise-surprise, Kieron Dyer and Craig Bellamy; Blackburn have David Dunn out injured.

Ince's Blackburn side have started the season well gaining 4pts from two games. Their Everton victory showed grit and determination and whilst their opening home game draw against Hull was a little disappointing it followed recent trends of promoted sides outperforming themselves early in a season (based upon retrospective analysis).

Last season's fixture on 15th March went West Ham's way 2-1 - and was their sixth consecutive victory over Rovers (five in the league), the last four being over 2.5 goal games. Mark Hughes played 4-4-2 last year, while the Hammers were the same. Both sides had a week between fixtures and a week free thereafter. There were six SOT's for WHU and five SOTs for Blackburn; six SOFFs for WHU and four SOFFs for Blackburn.

Blackburn created 243 SOTs last season compared with West Ham's 226. The Hammers though could only score 24 times at home (seventh worst record) while Blackburn managed 24 goals away from home (fifth best). This season Blackburn started with an impressive 11 SOTs against Everton and five SOTs at home against Hull.

Prediction: I expect this to be a tough fixture with goals. Roque Santa Cruz is an important player for Blackburn and having scored 19 Premiership goals I would hope to see him line up, with perhaps Jason Roberts as well up front. Paul Ince will demand the highest performance from his charges especially given the relatively disappointing result against Hull last weekend.

1pt - West Ham Utd v Blackburn over 2.5 goals @ [2.26]


Aston Villa v Liverpool

Villa continue to be the over 2.5 players' favourite side with both games this season obliging in high scoring results. Their victory against Man City on the opening day demonstrates why those playing overs in any of their games always have a chance whatever the clock says. Nil-all at half-time against City, it was only 1-0 after 68 minutes but a seven minute Agbonlahor hat trick changed all that. Then Villa travelled to Stoke to lose 3-2...

Liverpool meanwhile have managed to somehow collect maximum points against Sunderland and Boro.

Only four of the last ten fixtures between Villa and Liverpool at Villa Park have been over 2.5 goal games - and last year's 1-2 Liverpool victory saw two goals scored inside the final four minutes in a match that had 13 SOTs. Last season, this game was the opening fixture of the season and Fernando Torres' first match for Liverpool.

Liverpool remain a hard side to break down - they had the fifth best defensive record in 2006/7 conceding on average just 1.05 goals per away game, while they scored on average 0.94 goals per away game - only the 12th best record in the league. A season later it was a similar tale - the Reds conceded just 15 goals away from home (=2nd best record) while they increased their scoring average up to 1.26 (=5th best).

Villa scored more goals away from home than at Villa Park. Thirty-four goals saw them =5th in terms of home goals scored, while a 22 against record placed them with the 12th best defensive record at home.

Liverpool have restricted their opponents to just seven SOTs so far this season - and it wouldn't surprise me if it was a similar story here with very few chances and a highly populated midfield. Last season Villa played with Young, Carew and Agbonlahor in a 4-3-3 format, while Liverpool started with a 4-4-2 formation - although Kuyt played a little less deeper than Torres.

Prediction: With so many great offensive players on view I expect the overs boys to be playing this one, but the head-to-heads and, as importantly, the way the game may be played might all add to a small play of the unders being the call.

The head-to-heads show if anything that this fixture is tight with few chances and goals, and at the current prices I think that [1.91] is a fair price. I would even take a little less but nothing below [1.82].

1pt Aston Villa v Liverpool under 2.5 goals @ [1.91]

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