Betfair Official Blog

Premiership

Premier League Betting: Ronaldo is the backer's friend

Click here to view market

Cristiano Ronaldo importance to Manchester United is obvious but the true weight of his contribution is not always reflected in the odds, says Andrew Atherley.

Cristiano Ronaldo is poised to make his first Premier League start of the season on Saturday and, boy, do Manchester United need him.

Okay, so United went close to ending Chelsea's long unbeaten home record at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, but that 1-1 draw was the champions' seventh consecutive game of the season in which they scored no more than one goal without Ronaldo in their starting line-up.

For all their star quality in other positions - and the £30m addition of Dimitar Berbatov this summer - Ronaldo makes all the difference for United. He proved the point on Tuesday night when he started for the first time this season and scored the opener in the 3-1 Carling Cup win over Middlesbrough.

That result, albeit in a lesser competition, demonstrated all the ingredients that have made Ronaldo such a backer's friend. Not only did he score, he scored first; not only did United win, they won by two clear goals; and backers of over 2.5 goals were rewarded too.

Now backers should be able to look forward to Ronaldo making a similar impact on United's stuttering league campaign as he did around this time last year when he returned from a brief spell on the sidelines. Then, as now, United had struggled to score without him - two goals in three league matches. Ronaldo, though, was the catalyst for an astonishing run of 11 wins and one draw in the first 12 Premier League games he started upon his return.

Nothing startling in all this, you might think, and yet the true weight of Ronaldo's contribution to the United cause is not always reflected in the odds.

Turn the clock back to New Year's Eve 2005 to find one of the early signposts on Ronaldo's road to greatness. The venue was Old Trafford and the visitors were Bolton - just as they will be on Saturday for Ronaldo's expected return to the starting XI in the league. Ronaldo scored twice against Bolton that day in a 4-1 home win - his first brace at Old Trafford - and he has hardly looked back since.

Ronaldo's impact at home has been particularly stunning and is worthy of consideration in the context of Bolton's visit on Saturday. Take out home games against the big four (where Ronaldo's record is relatively poor) and since that Bolton game at the very end of 2005, United have won 30 out of 34 home games with Ronaldo in the starting line-up. That's a win rate of 88%, equating to odds of [1.13].

Those odds can be bettered on a fairly regular basis - the early betting on Saturday's game has United at [1.25]. There is usually better value, however, in following the Ronaldo factor down some other avenues.

For instance, his own scoring rate. In those 34 starts at home against non-big four teams, Ronaldo has scored in 20 (59%), which equates to odds of [1.70]. Ronaldo's odds to score rarely drop that low and against opponents of Bolton's stature are likely to be only a shade off odds-on, so that is one option for backers.

Ten times (29%) in those 34 games he has been first goalscorer, equating to odds of [3.4]. Last season his strike-rate as first goalscorer at Old Trafford improved dramatically to eight from 14 starts (57%), and on that measure he is a solid bet at the odds usually available.

Then there is Ronaldo's impact on United's margin of victory. In those same 34 home games against non-big four teams, United have won 25 (74%) by two or more goals - equivalent to odds of [1.36] for them to win by that margin when Ronaldo starts. Yet on Saturday against Bolton, we can expect odds of [1.75] or better for United at -1.5 on the Asian handicap, which requires them to win by a two-goal margin.

Another option is backing over 2.5 goals in United home games with Ronaldo starting, as 21 out of 34 (62%) have turned out that way, equating to odds of [1.62]. Against Bolton on Saturday, odds of [1.79] are available for over 2.5 goals.

And, just in case there is any remaining doubt that Ronaldo is the main reason for United's success, consider this: since the New Year's Eve game against Bolton in 2005, Ronaldo has started and scored in 22 home league games and United have won all 22. Nineteen of those 22 games were won by two goals or more and 18 had over 2.5 goals.

Ronaldo at Old Trafford is a potent weapon and it is rare for such a high-profile player to be underestimated by the market and, yet on the Asian handicap in particular, there is scope for backers to cash in on his prolific figures.

Long term, Ronaldo is not bad value at [10.0] in the Top Goalscorer market for the Premier League season. He has ceded a three-goal start to current [7.8] favourite Emmanuel Adebayor, yet it is noteworthy that Ronaldo had not scored in the Premier League by this stage of last season and still went on to notch 31 goals.

The average of his league goals from late September onwards in the past two seasons is 23, and anything close to that will put him bang in contention to be the league's top goalscorer once again.