Premier League Betting Preview: Bolton v Newcastle

Premier League / Richard Walker / 28 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

Richard Walker believes that Gary Megson's men will take a big step towards Premier League survival on Sunday. Best Bet: Back Bolton to win @ [2.08].

If there's a collective looking over of shoulders at both these clubs you'll have to forgive them; for, as Sir Alex says, it's getting towards "squeaky bum time" now.

With a mini-gap - only two points, but you cling to any mental boost you can - having recently developed between the bottom three and the rest, a win for either side here is a giant step towards Premier League survival. You might suggest Sunday lunch-time's Lancashire hosts have done enough already but Gary Megson will let no one at The Reebok slip into that mind-set.

For me, the team celebrating this step towards next season's guaranteed riches will be Bolton Wanderers, odds against at [2.08] to back. Don't miss out. The Draw [3.5] and the Magpies are [4.2].

Stand-in boss Chris Hughton's Newcastle have won just twice on the road; at West Brom of late - against whom everyone does well - and at Portsmouth back in December, when I tipped them on this very site.

But the Albion victory is their only one in 10 matches and that should tell you the tale. Michael Owen is still out - as are six or seven of his colleagues (including Joey Barton, Habib Beye and Danny Guthrie) - so Obafemi Martins, with a decent six goals in 12 starts, will be expected to bear the goal-scoring burden. You can also add in the suspension of Kevin Nolan for his x-rated antics.

Wanderers have few injury concerns by comparison. In the goals stakes, Kevin Davies' nine leads the way for the hosts, with Matt Taylor (7) and Johann Elmander (5) in support. So it's fair to say neither of these sides is prolific but Bolton, with two recent home wins against Spurs and West Ham, are the better organised and I expect them to win this 1-0, [8.2] to back, or 2-0 [11.0].

Under 2.5 goals is my choice, but only a tentative pick at odds of [1.9]. I couldn't put you off the [2.1] about Overs - it's a tough market fro this match. And it would be just like United to get a late consolation and tip the goal count to three.

However, they have other priorities. Hughton will recognise this one as a 'don't lose it' match, and will set up with a little more caution than if it were at St. James' Park. That's why I expect it to be into the second half before the Trotters take control. Draw/Bolton's a [5.6] HT/FT option, with alternatives including Bolton/Bolton [3.55], Newcastle/Newcastle [8.0] and Newcastle/Bolton a fancy [36.0].

I mentioned Bolton's Taylor earlier and he's actually my To Score selection - and quite a confident one, too - backable around [3.9]. He's popped a couple in lately and still possesses a potent shot from set-pieces and long-range. Kevin Davies is perhaps the more obvious candidate and a little short maybe as a [2.66] To Score option, so how about [7.6] for first goal if, say, you reckon a strike from him might be the only one of the match.

This Premier League fixture is billed as our warm-up to the Carling Cup Final which follows it. I hope I'm still hungry for more football action after this appetiser.