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Serie A betting: Jaded Milan may struggle at home to Cagliari

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Dan "The Betting Man" Fitch talks us through endless poor decisons made behind the scenes at the San Ciro which threaten to see them miss out on a Champions League spot. Next up on Betfair Live Video: Cagliari

You know how it is. You get involved in something with the best intentions and with plenty of optimism and hope. But as time goes on, things don't go as planned and you begin to lose enthusiasm. You realise that it's time to get out, but you're stuck. You have to see it through to the bitter end.

This sort of realisation can come when in a relationship, with a boring job, or most commonly of all, when watching any film starring Kevin Costner. Sometimes though, it can come during a football season.

Everyone wants the season to end. Nothing's going right and there's little to play for. The players want to go on holiday, the manager wants to send the players on a permanent holiday and buy some replacements, whilst the club president wants to replace the manager.

AC Milan are in such a situation. Yes, technically they can still qualify for the Champions League, but the players are showing about as much inclination towards entering Europe, as America did prior to Pearl Harbour. Milan are sleepwalking towards the end of the season and showing very little signs of waking up.

On Saturday night Milan have the perfect chance to do just that, when they play host to Cagliari, a side currently sitting in the relegation zone. However, Cagliari are fighting for their lives and only last weekend took a point from high flying Roma. Whichever way it goes, all the action can be seen on Betfair Live Video.

Home advantage hasn't counted for much this season at the San Siro, where Milan slumped to another defeat last week against mid-table Atalanta. Milan had looked brighter in the early exchanges, but it was Atalanta that took the lead through Sergio Floccari, with their first real effort of the game. As the frustrated Milan crowd jeered their underperforming team, Atalanta added a second through Langella, who fired past the useless Kalac at the near post.

Milan had their chances to get back into the game. An Ambrosini goal was disallowed late on, before Maldini scored from a corner to give Milan hope. It looked like they would salvage a point when Ambrosini won a last minute penalty, but from the spot, Pirlo was denied by a good save by Coppola.

The game summed up Milan's season. A poor start and when they finally did get into second gear, they'd left themselves with far too much to do. The jaunt to the World Club Championship in Japan now seems very costly, as the fixture build up has left an ageing side jaded. Milan have won just three games from their last ten, which isn't going to get them into the Champions League.

In a way it might be beneficial for Milan to not finish in the top four. Things have been allowed to slip at the club and it is revolution that they need, rather than evolution. A lack of Champions League action might force this issue, but I wouldn't bet on it. Here you have a team of over the hill superstars and who are their rumoured transfer targets? Ronaldinho, Van Nistlerooy and Shevchenko. Did Milan stop employing scouts sometime around 2003?

Cagliari go into this game in the sort of rude health that may propel them out of the relegation zone. They are now unbeaten in the last six games, though it should be said that five were played at home. This change of form seems to have stemmed from a much needed period of managerial stability, after Davide Ballardini was appointed in December.

Ballardini is the third manager this season. They started with Marco Giampaolo, before replacing him with his predecessor Nedo Sonetti. Cagliari then sacked Sonetti and attempted to bring back Giampaolo. When Giampaolo refused, they briefly re-appointed Sonetti, before giving him the boot again and bringing in Ballardini (who incidentally was Sonetti's predecessor back in 2006). Cagliari make Newcastle United look positively stable.

Despite the evidence of recent weeks, Milan are [1.4] with the draw [4.6] and Cagliari [11.5]. Milan are way too short and a lay will surely bring trading opportunities. Take the opportunity to pick this giant's pockets whilst they still sleep.