Euro 2008

 

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Portugal v Turkey

Group: A

Match 02 - Portugal v Turkey

Portugal v Turkey - Match odds, First goalscorer, correct score, half-time, corners odds

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This game is much more like it to really kick start the tournament. A high percentage of opening major tournament games have under 2.5 goals, but the odd match does buck that trend, and this could be a thriller.

Turkey are much underrated for the Championships as, rather like Romania, they have a lot of classy players that people don't know much about.

"I think that Turkey will put their illustrious opponents on the back foot, and it could turn into a bit of a see-sawing classic."

While they may not actually win the tournament, I feel that they'll get out of the group and will be a serious danger in the knockout stages. Portugal didn't beat any of their main rivals in qualifying and made it through simply because they had better results against the smaller teams in the group.

Two of their big players, Ronaldo and Carvalho, were involved in a gruelling Champions League final only two weeks ago, Deco looks tired, and the big players may take a while to get into the tournament.

I love watching Portugal, and so it sticks in the throat to oppose them too strongly as I feel that they'll get through the group and make a telling contribution to Euro 2008. This opening game may just see them caught a little cold, and it's very hard to fancy them too strongly against one of the tournament's real livewires.

Portugal may have won five out of their six matches against Turkey, but there must be question marks hanging over Scolari's side, and Turkey, with their businesslike buzz, are just the kind of team that can take advantage. The worry is that Turkey aren't the strongest at the back, but more than make up for that in attacking areas. Turkey have the potential to cause a shock and win this opening game, but Portugal are short enough to make laying them the smart thing to do. My advice is to lay Portugal at [1.78].

CORRECT SCORE

Tipping anything which involves over 2.5 goals being scored in teams' first tournament games is of course risky, whether in the goals market or in this one, as the statistics point you in the opposite direction. But just under thirty percent of these openers do have over 2.5 and so I'm taking Portugal against Turkey to be one of those. I think that Turkey will put their illustrious opponents on the back foot, and it could turn into a bit of a see-sawing classic, with Nihat, Tuncay and Arda going head to head with Portugal's big three up front. I'll have a stab at 2-2 at [26.0].


FIRST GOALSCORER

There has been much hullabaloo about the potential impact of Fernando Torres on this tournament, and yet here you are able to back one of La Liga's most incisive finishers at a relatively big price for First Goalscorer, purely because he plays for a Villarreal team that has played fabulous football all year, but which hasn't has much Europe-wide exposure. Nihat scored 18 La Liga goals last season from a deep lying role and for the national side there's a chance that he'll play even further forward and be even more potent. A confident selection at [11.5].

HALF TIME

Both of these teams showed in qualifying that they can take a while to break down the opposition, and so one play that you must keep an eye on in running is over/under 2.5 goals. With regard to the half time market, I'm going to back the Turks to take an early lead through Nihat, and for it to end level once Portugal wake up and start playing. That makes Turkey the value call to be leading at half time at [6.2].

CORNERS

This is one of the games in which a high corner count jumps out at you. Both teams play with wide men, both like to attack, and both have goalkeepers who don't hold on to the ball, and full backs who are often caught out of position. Don't get too carried away, and take the [3.4] about their being over 13 corners, but do put up a lay of around [2.3] on there being 9 or fewer corners.

Best Bet

That makes Turkey the value call to be leading at half time at [6.2].

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Group A

  P W D L +/- Pts
Portugal 3 3 0 0 +2 6
Turkey 3 2 0 1 0 6
Czech Republic 3 1 0 2 0 3
Switzerland 3 1 0 2 0 3

Group B

  P W D L +/- Pts
Croatia 3 3 0 0 3 9
Germany 3 2 0 1 2 6
Austria 3 0 1 2 -2 1
Poland 3 0 1 2 -3 1

Group C

  P W D L +/- Pts
Netherlands 3 3 0 0 +8 9
Italy 3 3 1 1 -1 4
Romania 3 0 2 1 -2 2
France 3 0 1 2 -5 1

Group D

  P W D L +/- Pts
Spain 3 3 0 0 +5 9
Russia 3 2 0 1 0 6
Sweden 3 1 0 2 -1 3
Greece 3 0 0 3 -4 0

Match Calendar

19/06/2008Portugal v Germany

20/06/2008Croatia v Turkey

21/06/2008Netherlands v Russia

22/06/2008Spain v Italy

25/06/2008Germany v Turkey

26/06/2008Russia v Spain