US Election: Trump's odds three weeks out are shorter than they were in 2016 or 2020

• Trump is 4/5 favourite with 56% chance on Betfair Exchange

• His odds are shorter than at this point in 2016 or 2020

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Donald Trump's chances of winning the US election are better than they were at this point in either of his previous runs for the White House.

The former-president has been the Republican candidate for the last three elections in a row and, with three weeks to go before election day 2024, Trump is 4/51.80 on the Betfair Exchange (a 56% chance).

In the past 10 days, he has regained the campaign momentum from Kamala Harris who is 5/42.25 (44.8%) and the odds indicate that he on couse to recapture the presidency.

The Betfair Exchange market had been very tight, with the lead flipping eight times since August, but punters are now heavily backing Trump.

The Betfair Predicts temperature gauge, a swing-o-meter style graphic that takes the live data from the Betfair Exchange market now gives the Republican a 56% chance, while Harris has a 43% implied chance.

Trump was trailing in 2016 and 2020

In previous elections Trump was far from the favourite at this point in the campaign.

In 2020, when he was up against Joe Biden, Trump was 2/13.00 with three weeks to go. Biden went on to win the election.

Prior to that, in 2016 when Trump went on to beat Hillary Clinton, he was as big as 5/16.00 with three weeks to go. When election day arrived, Trump pulled off a huge upset to take the presidency and send shockwaves around the world.

Trump favourite in key swing states

In 2024, support for Trump in the election winner market has coincided with the odds flipping in the key swing state markets, with the former-president now [10/11 ]to win the Keystone state, Pennsylvania, as well as being favoured at 2/51.40 to win Arizona and 4/71.57 to win in Georgia.

Betfair's Electoral College projection, which is based off all 50 state Betfair Exchange markets is predicting a Trump win by 281 votes, 11 more than the 270 needed to win the presidency.

It's not over

There are still three weeks to go and, if we have learned anything from this extremely close election campaign, it is that anything can happen. Could there be swings in momentum and shifts in the odds before 5 November?

Quite possible. Betting.Betfair politics expert Paul Krishnamurty believes the race is too close to call and today went in-depth on seven factors which could yet prove decisive.

Keep reading Betting.Betfair for the latest US election news all the way to voting day, quite possibly, beyond.

Now read US Election: Seven factors which could be decisive in the battle for the White House