• Election is too close to call, three weeks out

• Is there an October Surprise in the pipeline?

• Could party organisation make the difference?

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We are three weeks out from the most consequential election the USA or indeed the Western world has seen since the end of World War 2. The race is closer than any since at least 2000. For my money, literally too close to call - a phrase I am not known for saying! What will be the determining factors? Try these seven.

1: The foreign policy effect

The world is on fire, whether that be in Ukraine, the Middle East, or Asia. CNN journalist Fareed Zakaria summed it up well on Sunday. Yesterday North Korea, who have sent troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine, blew up the roads and bridges connecting it to South Korea. If there is an 'October Surprise', this is the likeliest source.

We are now in the most dangerous moment internationally since the end of the Cold War. My take: pic.twitter.com/WeOS5g37cI

-- Fareed Zakaria (@FareedZakaria) October 13, 2024

We already know some of the potential electoral impact. If scrolling down the Live Blog to September 26th, you'll find my post about the substantial Ukrainian-American and Polish-American populations in the 'Blue Wall' - 900,000 combined in Pennsylvania, 800,000 in Michigan and 500,000 in Wisconsin. This is a major problem for Trump, who has long been against NATO and evidently sides with Putin in Ukraine,

However, on the other side, Arab American voters in Michigan are a huge problem for Harris, due to the administration's support for Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon. Biden won 66% of these voters in 2020. Harris seems sure to undershoot that, shedding votes to both Jill Stein and Cornel West and will therefore need to pick up other voters to compensate. Lest we forget, Stein's presence played a key role in handing the 2016 election to Trump, at Hillary Clinton's expense.

2: The hurricane effect

Hurricanes Helene and Milton continue to wreck havoc across America, including some pivotal states such as North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. It will affect voters getting to the polls and absentee ballots. One can only guess about whether voters will want to reward or punish the Federal admininstration for their response.

Most shockingly, these natural disasters have become part of the political war. Republican officials in these states find themselves having to debunk conspiracy theories put out by Trump and his online network. Barack Obama couldn't hide his despair at the situation.

Obama: "We didn't have arguments about whether you should tell the truth or not. We didn't make excuses for people who violated basic norms of treating people fairly & w/ respect. Last week, we had one of the deadliest hurricanes in US history ... Trump started making up stories" pic.twitter.com/4S9TJIaoqv

-- Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 11, 2024

While Trump is out here politicizing Hurricane Helene, North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis says he's "impressed" with the federal response. "They're doing a great job. We're working together and I'm pretty proud of the effort that's been done."pic.twitter.com/3uff3wkszd

-- Keith Boykin (@keithboykin) October 5, 2024

In one North Carolina county, FEMA had to withdraw their emergency workers as they were being hunted by far-Right militia. Joe Biden only lost North Carolina by 1.3%, and the Governor fronting the emergency response is a Democrat. If there is any meaningful backlash from Republican voters against the conspiracy madness, it could easily cost Trump the state.

Some news: Federal emergency response officials had workers in hard-hit Rutherford County NC move to a safe area after the National Guard encountered pick up trucks of "armed militia saying there were out hunting FEMA," per a USFS email sent to agencies https://t.co/em510yKkPI

-- Brianna Sacks (@bri_sacks) October 13, 2024

3: Has Trump's electoral college advantage diminished?

There appears to have been significant churn amongst the electorate since 2020. Harris is doing better than Biden among seniors, white college educated and suburban voters. Trump is faring better among men (particularly young men), Hispanic and black voters. His conversion to Crypto-mania taps into growing, fairly deep pool of voters who were far from certain to vote last time, let alone for him.

Consequently, the maths in districts and key states may be changing. As I wrote in the blog last week, it seems that he is doing better in populous states which are extremely unlikely to change hands - New York, California, Florida. The reverse effect may well apply to Pennsylvania and Michigan. If so, that affects the electoral college maths. Harris may well only need to win the popular vote by 1-2% now, in order to win the electoral college.

4: Differential turnout

Likewise, will these emerging new voter coalitions turn out? The good news for Harris is the groups she has gained among are reliably high turnout groups. Whereas Trump's new voters have historically been lower turnout but, by definition, the potential growth among them and chance of a polling miss is higher.

There is also the gender gap to consider. Women turned out at a higher rate in all recent presidential elections, and have never been more mobilised due to the abortion issue. There are referenda on the ballot in several states, including Arizona, Nevada and Florida. Could this provide a decisive advantage for Harris?

5: Can Trump compete on the ground?

Fundamentally connected to turnout is ground game. Here, the general consensus is that the Democrats have the edge. They are far better organised and have many multiple times as many field offices in key states. This might be a key difference with 2020, when the pandemic and lockdown limited on the ground campaigning.

6: Is America ready to elect a black woman?

This question remains pertinent. America has never elected a woman and, when Hillary Clinton was heavy odds-on favourite in 2016, she lost. Especially set against a world on fire, a woman is arguably at a disadvantage, against somebody who loves to identify as a 'strongman'.

As for the race angle, America did decisively elect a black man twice. Based on personal experience, I regard the diverse USA as a less racist country than largely homogenous Europe. But Obama may have been an exception and racism seems to have got worse everywhere during this era of micro-targeted, weapons grade propaganda and hybrid war. I do think that a white male candidate for the Democrats, such as Andy Beshear, would have been at less of a disadvantage.

7: Will election denial and Jan 6th ruin Trump?

On Jan 7th 2021, the idea of Trump being odds-on favourite in 2024 seemed absurd. But somehow, he has yet again proved to be Teflon when it comes to the events that led to a violent insurrection at the previous election.

Perhaps that is because the issue didn't feel especially live, or pertinent, to the average disengaged voter. It does now. In three weeks, we may well have another extremely close election, beset by chaos and legal challenges.

Trump, Vance, and other Republicans are and will continue to be pressed to accept the results, to commit to a peaceful transition of power. They aren't doing so convincingly. At the 2022 midterms, despite a turnout advantage for Republicans, they massively underperformed. Election deniers on the ballot were punished and MAGA candidates proved a drag on the party. Don't be surprised by a repeat of those dynamics, or the chaos of 2020, or worse.

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