Click here for Switzerland v Colombia odds
Tuesday 07 July, 21:00
Live on ITV1
Both nations have impressed
In some ways we shouldn't be surprised that Switzerland and Colombia have made it to the last 16 of the World Cup.
Switzerland have a rock-solid record in major tournaments, having escaped the group stage in their last four World Cups and reaching the quarter-finals of the last two European Championships. As for Colombia, they got to the final of the Copa America on US soil in 2024, and they qualified for this tournament with room to spare in the CONMEBOL section.
Colombia won their group ahead of Portugal, conceding just one goal in the process, and their 1-0 win over Ghana in the round of 32 was more comfortable than the scoreline suggests. Luis Diaz has carried his exceptional Bayern Munich form into the tournament, James Rodriguez has shown flashes of his brilliance, and centre-backs Jhon Lucumi and Davinson Sanchez have worked superbly together.
Jefferson Lerma and Gustavo Puerta have been excellent in midfield for Colombia, and rampaging Crystal Palace right-back Daniel Munoz is a constant outlet.
Switzerland took rather longer to grow into the tournament. A clumsy 1-1 draw with Qatar made for a bad start - the Swiss failed to add to a narrow lead and conceded a late equaliser against arguably the tournament's worst team - but wins against Bosnia Herzegovina and Canada got the Nati back on track. A 2-0 victory over Algeria in the round of 32 was probably their most complete performance to date.
The Swiss have a ton of experience to call upon, but it's actually two younger players that have consistently impressed. Freiburg midfielder Johan Manzambi has been one of the stars of the tournament, and the 20-year-old has already netted three goals and set up a further two.
Sevilla winger Ruben Vargas has scored twice and produced an assist. Coach Murat Yakin can be slow to trust, but he is finally convinced by two players who could well be hot property this summer.
The Match Odds market feels about right given the form of the sides, with Colombia priced at 2.47/5 to win and Switzerland as 3.6553/20 outsiders.
Given how stubborn and grizzled this Swiss team is (the starting back four alone has more than 350 caps combined, and in front of them Granit Xhaka has 150) I can't be backing Colombia to win in 90 minutes, even if I do give them a slight edge here.
Over 2.5 Goals is probably a touch overpriced at 2.486/4, but Colombia's defensive record has been excellent, and the Swiss haven't conceded more than one goal in any of their matches.
Never fear though, because we can find plenty of juice in the props markets.
Manzambi to attract attention again
Switzerland's Johan Manzambi was the most fouled player in the Bundesliga last term, and in this World Cup he has been fouled three times across his two starts. Therefore let's start a Bet Builder by backing the energetic ball carrier to be fouled twice. Remember, the Safe Sub provision applies here, so if Manzambi is subbed off, whoever replaces him carries the bet on for you.
I'll also go for the impressive Gustavo Puerta to be fouled twice or more. The 22-year-old was a bit-part player in Bayer Leverkusen's double-winning season under Xabi Alonso, but he has since had a bigger role in loan spells at Hull City and Racing Santander. Puerta has been carrying the ball superbly, and he is being fouled 1.8 times per 90 on average.
We'll add in Daniel Munoz to have a shot. The Crystal Palace wing-back plays really high up in this Colombian team, and he scored in the group stage against both Uzbekistan and DR Congo. Munoz is averaging 0.8 shots per 90.
That Bet Builder comes out at 5/42.25.
Back Manzambi to be fouled 2+ times, Puerta to be fouled 2+ times and Munoz to have a shot @
We'll also back Luis Diaz to score at any time as a single. The former Liverpool star netted against Uzbekistan and had a goal ruled out for offside against Ghana. He is constantly involved in Colombia's attacking play, and he scored 29 goals for club and country last season.
We can back Diaz here at 23/103.30 on the Sportsbook to find the net.
Back Luis Diaz to score @