Belgium can score but slick Spain will win out
Click here for Spain v Belgium odds
Friday 10 July, 20:00 kick-off
SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Live on BBC One
This is the first meeting in a decade between Spain and Belgium, and first competitive fixture since 2009, with Spain 8/131.61 favourites after seven wins and a draw in the last eight meetings.
Belgium are 9/25.50 with their last head-to-head win coming almost exactly 40 years ago in a World Cup quarter-final at Mexico '86. That win came on penalties and a draw here is 29/103.90.
Spain's first World Cup quarter-final since lifting the trophy in 2010 came via a last-minute winner against Portugal in a defensive arm-wrestle of a game, while Belgium finally came alive by thrashing the USA after a series of dud displays.
It's quite the turnaround for The Red Devils who were dead and buried at 2-0 down after 86 minutes against Senegal, but now stand a game away from a second semi-final in three World Cups.
Luis de la Fuente has won his first six major tournament knockout matches with the European champions, while Spain are the first team ever to keep six straight clean sheets in the World Cup having failed to concede in all five games so far.
But Belgium are fancied to finally break that defence down as both teams to score is 8/111.73 while over 2.5 goals is 3/41.75. Belgium have scored 12 in the last three and average over three goals a game during their 18-match unbeaten run.
They've also had some joy going a bit more direct and having plenty of goal attempts - they lead the World Cup with 107 and are the only team to eclipse 100. They have muscular forwards who could cause a few problems. I've still got to back Spain but we'll go for them to finally concede a goal in the process.
Back Spain win and both teams to score
Safe Sub Lukaku could boost 4/15.00 De Ketelaere shout
Romelu Lukaku has become the ultimate super sub, scoring off the bench in the last three games to earn some World Cup history as the only man with four substitue scoring appearances in the finals.
Lukaku is 11/43.75 to score anytime but he's likely to be deployed from the bench again, so remember thanks to Safe Sub on the Sportsbook he could land you a bet even on a different player - most likely Charles De Ketelaere, who is 4/15.00 anytime scorer but likely to start ahead of Lukaku.
He's been replaced by Lukaku in three games so far, one of which he'd already scored in and two where Lukaku came on to score, so that looks like a good way to play it as De Ketelaere looks a danger in his own right, but it'd be a huge bonus if he's later replaced by Lukaku as usual.
Mikel Oyarzabal is the 11/102.11 anytime scorer favourite with Lamine Yamal 7/52.40, but much like Belgium, Spain have a couple of useful subs with Ferran Torres combining with Mikel Merino for the winner against Portugal.
At 17/102.70 Torres is a bit tight for a sub not named Lukaku, while Merino is 5/23.50.
Back De Ketelaere anytime scorer (with safe sub)
Think outside the box with 8/19.00 Max bet
Shots on target aren't guaranteed but this certainly has potential to be better than most of Spain's other games. Oyarzabal is 1/12.00 and Yamal 5/61.84 for 2+ shot on target but I wouldn't want to go too bold on SOTs, especially for Belgium as Spain have only allowed five shots on target all tournament.
De Ketelaere (with possibly Lukaku on as a Safe Sub to pick up the bet) and Kevin De Bruyne (if he starts) are attractive prices at 1/12.00 and 11/102.11 respectively for just a shot on target. Left-back Maxim De Cuyper actually leads the team with six shots on target so far - and is a 5/23.50 chance to test the Spanish keeper.
Two other markets to look at here are the method of shots on target as both sides have similar ways of attacking that's seen them near the top of the charts in terms of crosses (125-121,) headed goal attempts (16-15) and shots from outside the box (38-37) - with Spain just edging all of them.
Oyarzabal leads the way for Spain in headers and is 4/15.00 for a headed shot on target, while De Bruyne is 9/43.25 for a shot on target from outside the box. He didn't play against the USA but is averaging 2.5 attempts per game from outside the area. He has already scored and hit the woodwork so if he starts that looks a solid shout.
But backing De Cuyper at 8/19.00 for a shot on target from outside the box could be a value play here. He's hit the target twice from over 18 yards out and five of his nine goal attempts have come from outside the area so he loves to have a try. There are certainly worse bets than this one.
Back De Cuyper 1+ shot on target from outside the box