Mexico enjoying home advantage
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Monday, 01:00
Live on BBC One
Three wins out of three in the group stage without conceding a goal followed by a 2-0 victory over Ecuador in the last 32 - things couldn't be going much better for co-hosts Mexico.
Add in a frighteningly good record in the altitude of their home Azteca Stadium and this looks like a big, big test for England.
That win over Ecuador ended the 'fifth game' curse that had weighed so heavily on the Mexicans. Time after time they'd got out of the group but then crashed out in game four of a World Cup.
With England far from convincing to this point, is this Mexico's great chance to go deeper still?
England face altitude test
Of course, England have history at the Azteca as it was the scene of one of their most famous defeats - the 2-1 loss to Argentina in the 1986 quarter-finals when Maradona pulled of his infamous cheat/genius double strike in a five-minute spell that took the game away from Bobby Robson's men.
It's less reported that England do have some more positive history in the Azteca having beaten Paraguay 3-0 there in the previous round in 1986.
The big narrative this time is the altitude and how England will adapt to it having been based in the United States up to now. In 1986 they'd played all three group games in Monterrey (2,000 feet above sea level compared to the 7,380 of Mexico City, home to the Azteca).
Mexico prowess being overplayed
There's a scenario where England fall victim to the altitude, get hit early and never recover.
Those buying into that will jump all over Mexico at 21/103.10 in the match odds market. The 23/202.15 'To Qualify' odds will appeal too.
But I'm with England here as I believe all the stuff about altitude, Mexico's prowess and home fans honking horns outside the Three Lions' hotel don't outweigh the simple fact of Thomas Tuchel's men being easily the better team.
Who have Mexico beaten? A poor South Africa, a South Korean team that were seen as a disgrace by their president and a very lacklustre Czech Republic. Ecuador weren't much better.
In other words, they haven't been tested or faced adversity. And when they do, the dynamic could change completely. Even with all this positivity, Mexico's crowd have booed when their team haven't pushed forward in attack so imagine what happens if El Tri go behind?
While Raul Jimenez has done well against average teams, he's a 35-year-old who has just re-signed with Championship side Wolves. England's defenders know all about him.
Fellow attacker Julian Quinones has shone so far but he plays in the Saudi League and taking on England in the last 16 of the World Cup is a huge step up.
England haven't faced extra-time or oppressively hot conditions so far so there should be plenty in the tank. If they have to go beyond 90, the staying power and array of fresh options from the bench should hold them in good stead.
So, in terms of an England bet, it's 7/52.40 in normal time or 4/61.67 To Qualify. I'll be a little cautious and play the latter before getting on to some bigger prices.
Back England To Qualify
Back Kane header in Bet Builder
The other main memory from that 1986 Azteca clash is Gary Lineker heading home John Barnes' cross to cut the deficit to 2-1 and then somehow failing to nod home another Barnes delivery shortly after.
Lineker (1986) and Harry Kane (2018) are both Golden Boot winners so let's take the symmetry to continue here by backing England's current number nine to also net with his head in the Azteca.
The historical link is nice but the main reason is that Kane headers have already been a feature of this World Cup. He's scored three of them and therefore the 4/15.00 for another against Mexico has to be worth a look.
But let's go beyond that and try and cash in on who sets him up.
So far Kane has headed home crosses from Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham and Anthony Gordon. He even flicked home a cross with his bonce in the friendly against New Zealand, that one provided by Djed Spence.
Therefore, let's back a couple of combinations. The two assist providers I like are set-piece king Rice and open play roamer Bellingham. Hopefully both can provide the moments of quality that Mexico haven't seen so far.
Both combinations - Rice assist/Kane header and Bellingham assist/Kane header - are 20s.
And, of course, they don't have to be part of the same action. A dream scenario would be Kane heading home from one of them and the other setting up someone else for a goal. Both 20/121.00 shots land.
And at least now we know that the game will kick-off at 1am on Monday - weather permitting of course - after it briefly looked like it would be brought forward to 7pm on Sunday. So it's as you were, a depleted workforce in the UK on Monday it is then!
Back Harry Kane To Score A Header and a Declan Rice Assist
Back Harry Kane To Score A Header and a Jude Bellingham Assist