Italy v Ukraine: Value lies with 9/2 Di Lorenzo

• Di Lorenzo carded in five of last 11

• Competitive clash and ref should ensure cards

• Back three-legged 15/28.50 Bet Builder

Italy v Ukraine
Tuesday September 12, 19:45
Live on Viaplay Sports 2

This is a massive game for both sides in terms of Euro 2024 qualification.

While England haven't yet won Group C, they are in a strong position to do so following Saturday 1-1 draw against Ukraine.

That left Ukraine six points behind England with a game in hand (this one).
Italy are three further back having played a further game less following their own 1-1 draw at the weekend.

That came away to North Macedonia, a result which hurts their chances of reaching Germany next summer. They still have trips to England and Ukraine (well, Poland) to come, so clearly this is a game they need to win.

The problem is, they are still settling into the new methods of Luciano Spalletti, who, on Saturday, was in charge for the first time since replacing Roberto Mancini.

It wasn't the greatest performance, Italy struggling to create good chances; despite seeing plenty of the ball they were outshot by their hosts.

They will likely hold more of the ball again here with Ukraine having been happy to play mainly on the break against England, a game which saw them have only two shots.

Leg 1: Giovanni di Lorenzo to be carded

Given weekend travails, some of the shots prices look very short - Ciro Immobile is odds-on for six, for example - so I much prefer to head to the cards markets especially given how competitive this should be when you consider the group situation.

The value pick looks to be Italy right-back Giovanni Di Lorenzo to be shown a card at 9/25.50.

This has occurred in five of his last 11 competitive internationals and this game is set to see him go up against the jet-heeled Mykhailo Mudryk.

The Chelsea man will look to break at pace when he can and it won't take much for him to be dragged back or clipped by his marker.

Leg 2: Italy over 1.5 cards

The referee is Alejandro Hernandez Hernandez, who is one of Spain's wildest carders.

While he does tend to rein things in a bit in his UEFA appointments, the potential for cards here is obvious and he can deliver them.

With that in mind, I'm happy to add each team over 1.5 cards to the Bet Builder.

Italy have had 2+ cards in nine of their last 11 competitive games, including the last five.

They were responsible for three of the five shown in Macedonia at the weekend.

Leg 3: Ukraine over 1.5 cards

As for Ukraine, they've landed the over 1.5 cards bet in nine of their last 12 competitive internationals.

They picked up two of the four in their game against England.

The three-legged Bet Builder pays around 15/28.50.

Scotland v England: Check out Lewis Jones' 33/1 Bet Builder