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Netherlands v Turkey Tips: Back 9/2 Bet Builder in last Quarter-final

Netherlands and AC Milan midfielder Tijjani Reijnders
Tijjani Reijnders shooting has been a common sight at Euro 2024

With an open Euro 2024 quarter-final expected on Sunday night, shots feature in the 9/2 Bet Builder of our football props column for Netherlands v Turkey.

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The former Arsenal man has comitted six in four games so far at Euro 2024, and is no stranger to the referee as we know from his time in the Premier League.

England (60) have won the most fouls of any side at Euro 2024 (15 per game on average), with both Jude Bellingham (9) and Harry Kane (8) sitting in the top 10 of the most fouls won chart. Indeed, only three players (all 10) have managed more than Bellingham.

Netherlands v Turkey
Saturday 6 July, 20:00
Live on ITV1

In terms of how this game pans out, it looks likely to be one of the more open Euro 2024 quarter-finals.

Over 2.5 goals - 8/11 here - has landed in seven of the eight games the sides have played so far at the tournament with neither looking particularly strong defensively.

That's borne out in the shots-conceded stats. Of the eight quarter-finalists, Turkey have conceded the most shots with the Dutch third on the same metric.

Leg 1: Tijani Reijnders 2+ shots

That leads me to a couple of players in the shots markets.

Let's start with one who has gone under the radar somewhat and that's Tijani Reijnders.

While the likes of Memphis Depay and Golden Boot-chaser Cody Gakpo have been much-talked about, it's notable that Reijnders has also made it into double figures in terms of shots.

He's posted match make-ups of 3-2-1-4 so far at the tournament, failing to land the 2+ shots bet only against a very solid France team.

Given the Turks' leakiness on the shots front, the AC Milan midfielder gets the nod here for at least two shots.

Leg 2: Hakan Calhanoglu 2+ shots

On the other side of the ball, Turkey captain Hakan Calhanoglu will return to the midfield here having been suspended for the 2-1 victory over Austria in the last 16.

I suspect he'll be straining at the leash having been forced to sit that one out and I'll happily back him to continue his strong shots record.

The Inter Milan star hit three against the Czechs, four against Georgia and has now managed at least two shots in 13 of his last 20 Turkey starts.

Admittedly, there was just a single shot against Portugal but the Dutch look more open than the Portuguese and I think Turkey will get chances in this contest.

Leg 3: Denzel Dumfries to commit 2+ fouls

Finally, I'm going to add Denzel Dumfries for 2+ fouls.

The Netherlands right-back was the leading fouler at the 2022 World Cup, delivering for 3+ fouls backers in four of his five appearances.

Those games form part of a run which has seen Dumfries hit the 2+ fouls line in 17 of his last 22 international starts. That looks the safer bet.

In this game, he'll have opposing full-back Ferdi Kadioglu coming forward and he's the Turks' second-most fouled player at the tournament so far.

Talented Juventus teenager Kenin Yildaz will also keep him busy and with Dumfries a man who likes to raid forward - my colleague Lewis Jones has made a strong case for him claiming an assist in this match - it's not difficult to envisage him getting caught on the wrong side and having to resort to a foul (or two) at some point.

Put the three legs together and you get a Bet Builder which pays 9/25.50.

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Now read Mark O'Haire's in-depth preview of Netherlands v Turkey!

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Column P/L 2023/24

Staked: 302pts
Returned: 320.31pts
P/L: +18.31pts

2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.