Bet of the Day

Sheffield United v Burnley: Take aim with 20/1 Bet Builder

Burnley's Republic of Ireland international midfielder Josh Cullen
Josh Cullen: Among our shots selections for Burnley

Our football props column will bid to bounce back on Saturday by backing a 20/1 shot in the Premier League relegation battle between Sheffield United and Burnley...

Sheffield United v Burnley
Saturday 20 April, 15:00

Friday's bet went down inside six minutes thanks to an almighty corner cock-up in Spain but I'm going to get off the floor and come out punching with a 20/121.00 shot for Saturday's relegation showdown in the Premier League.

This is must-win for both sides and while even victory might be too little too late for the hosts, three points for Burnley would give them real hope in their battle against the drop.

I certainly wouldn't put anyone off backing the Clarets to claim the victory, after all they've lost just one of their last six and that was due to a goalkeeping howler.

However, this is a props column so the way I'm looking to back them is largely via the shots market.

Given both sides' need for a result, I'm expecting this to open up at some point, probably fairly soon.

Neither side looks good enough defensively to try to play out a tight game. Sheffield United have now shipped 31 goals in their last eight games at Bramall Lane and are top of the goals conceded chart, one in which Burnley sit third.

In shot terms, the hosts' last 10 matches have seen them concede the following totals: 9-6-29-24-32-22-13-24-20-14.

OK, so Burnley aren't Arsenal but, as already highlighted, they have improved over the past couple of months and the Clarets' shot output also reflects that with their decent six-game run producing tallies of 11-6-13-18-17-11 (and the game before that brought 20).

Leg 1: Back Wilson Odobert 2+ shots

So, who to back?

Wilson Odobert gets the first nod. He's had 2+ shots in five of his last seven games and certainly isn't afraid to try his luck - three of those matches have seen him hit the 4+ line.

Leg 2: Sander Berge 1+ shot

Sander Berge is also worth adding for 1+ shot.

Up against his former club here, the Norwegian has landed the bet in six of his last seven and should be found driving forward from midfield on occasion.

Leg 3: Josh Cullen 1+ shot

The other Brunley shot bet is for Josh Cullen to have at least one.

Berge's central-midfield partner has delivered this in six of his last eight appearances and certainly isn't afraid to shoot from distance. At 8/11, he looks a value pick in the market.

Leg 4: Anel Ahmedhodzic 1+ shot

A final shots bet comes on the other side of the ball with old favourite Anel Ahmedhodzic making the cut in the 1+ shot market.

The Blades' defender had a superb record for this bet in the Championship last season and while he's understandably slowed down following promotion, he's still delivered regularly for his backers.

He's a big threat from corners - and Burnley are fourth when it comes to shots conceded from set-plays - and is also happy to strike from range if the opportunity presents itself.

Given the level of opposition, Sheffield United should get some set-piece chances and Ahmedhodzic is more than capable of getting on the end of one.

Leg 5: Maxime Esteve to commit 2+ fouls

The last leg of our Bet Builder really provides its fuel and it comes in the fouls market.

Centre-back Maxime Esteve, who joined Burnley on loan from Montpellier in the January transfer window, has been a regular fouler since arriving at Turf Moor.

He's committed at least one foul in eight of his 11 games but has also landed the 2+ fouls bet in six of those, including five of his last seven.

Here, he'll likely be up against Ben Brereton Diaz and Oli McBurnie, the hosts' two most-fouled players, while we've got Andy Madley in charge, a referee who is above the average when it comes to fouls per game.

Those playing safe will add the 1+ bet and create a Bet Builder which pays around 8/19.00.

However, with 2+ fouls being available at 13/53.60, and such a huge amount riding on this game, I'm going to take the higher option to create a 20/121.00 shot.

Back Odobert 2+ shots, Berge, Cullen & Ahmedhodzic 1+ shot each and Esteve 2+ fouls @ around 20/121.00

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Column P/L 2023/24

Staked: 230pts
Returned: 251.38pts
P/L: +21.38pts

2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts


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