World Cup Final & 3rd Place Final Tips: Best stats-related bets for France v England and Spain v Argentina

France v England Opta stats bets

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Saturday 18 June, 22:00 kick-off
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami

Bet #1: Back France to Win @ 10/111.91

England have won just one of their last nine matches against France (D2 L6), winning 2-0 in a November 2015 friendly. They're winless in four competitive meetings (D2 L2) since a 3-1 win in the FIFA World Cup in 1982.

Bet #2: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 9/52.80

France's 0.31 xG against Spain in the semi-finals was their lowest recorded in a FIFA World Cup match on record (since 1966), while they could fail to score in successive games of the same tournament for only the third time after 1930, 2002 (3) and 2010.

England had just 12% possession when they were winning 1-0 for 30 minutes against Argentina in the FIFA World Cup semi-final, the lowest ever by a team when leading in a World Cup match for at least 10 minutes in the last 60 years.

Bet #3: Back Michael Olise to Assist (if he starts) @ 8/52.60

Michael Olise leads the FIFA World Cup 2026 for assists (5), with all five coming in open play, while he's second for expected assists (2.46) behind Lionel Messi (4.12). Since 1966, only Pelé has more assists at a single edition of the tournament (6 in 1970), while no player has recorded six from open play.

Spain v Argentina Opta stats bets

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Sunday 19 June, 20:00 kick-off
MetLife Stadium, New Jersey

Bet #1: Back Spain -1 to Win @ 7/24.50

Spain have won three of their four meetings with Argentina this century, losing the other 4-1 in a friendly in 2010. The most recent game between the nations was a 6-1 win for Spain in a March 2018 friendly, which remains one of only five occasions Argentina have conceded six in a game.

Bet #2: Back Spain Win to Nil @ 13/53.60

No side has faced fewer shots on target per game at the 2026 FIFA World Cup than Spain (1.4), while they've allowed their opponents an xG of just 0.31 per game, the lowest of any side in 2026 and joint lowest on record since 1966, along with Uruguay in 1990.

Bet #3: Back Lamine Yamal to have 2+ Shots on Target @ 17/102.70

In the last 60 years, Lamine Yamal is the teenager with the most shots (23), shots on target (10), and touches in the opposition box (51) at the FIFA World Cup. He will be the third-youngest player to appear in a World Cup final (19 years, 6 days), behind Pelé for Brazil in 1958 (17 years, 249 days) and Giuseppe Bergomi for Italy in 1982 (18 years, 201 days).

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