Saturday Football Cheat Sheet: All the best bets in one place

• Champions backed to win tight match

• Back booking when Blades go to Blackburn

• Arsenal backed to score four

• Maddison to make difference for Foxes

• Bets for Bayern Munich and PSG before their UCL clash

Man City v Newcastle: Champions to secure tough win

Man City 1.4840/85 v Newcastle 7.87/1, the Draw 5.85/1
12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Kevin Hatchard says: "The Opta stats tell us that Manchester City have won their last 13 Premier League home games against Newcastle, and they have won 14 of their last 16 PL home matches in general.

"I expect them to win this one too, but they'll have to work for it. Newcastle have played out draws at Manchester United and Arsenal this season, and they were seconds away from doing the same at Liverpool before the hosts grabbed a late and undeserved winner.

"We can use the Sportsbook to back City to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 2.2, and I think that's a fair price. Don't be distracted by the 3-3 draw in the reverse fixture - both teams are a lot more controlled now, and I just can't see a shootout of that nature here."

Kevin's bet: Back Man City & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.26/5

Blackburn v Sheff Utd: Back McBurnie to be booked for Blades

Blackburn 3.929/10 v Sheff Utd 2.111/10, the Draw 3.6553/20
12:30
Live on Sky Sports

NTT20 Podcast says: "In a game that's hard to call, the best way to find value here might be in the bookings markets. Sheffield United rank 2nd in the yellow cards table with 76, and Blackburn aren't far below in 8th with 70. Referee Josh Smith averages 4.4 cards per game this season so, with this being a huge game for both teams, there could be plenty of card action.

"The clear value in the "Shown a Card" market is Oli McBurnie. He is 12/5 to be shown a card despite already seeing yellow nine times this season in 1435 minutes of football, averaging one every 159 mins, so more than every other game.

"Anyone who has watched the Scottish striker knows how aggressive he is both on and off the ball, and if we do see an ill-tempered affair it's impossible not to see McBurnie play a leading role."

NTT20's bet: Back McBurnie to shown a card @ 12/5

Arsenal v Bournemouth: Gunners to fire four once more

Arsenal 1.251/4 v Sheff Utd 16.015/1, the Draw 7.06/1
15:00

Opta Stat: "Arsenal have won all six of their home games against Bournemouth in all competitions, by an aggregate score of 17-2. Only against Gainsborough Trinity (8/8) do the Gunners have a better 100% win record at home.

"Indeed, Bournemouth have lost all eight of their Premier League games against teams starting the day top of the table, conceding 27 goals in the process."

Betfair bet: Back Arsenal to score over 3.5 goals @ 11/4

Wycombe v Exeter: Back Wanderers

Wycombe 2.0421/20 v Exeter 3.953/1, the Draw 3.613/5
15:00

Alan Dudman says: "Wycombe are still adjusting to life without Gareth Ainsworth and Matt Bloomfield as the heir apparent faces his first match in charge of the team at Adams Park this Saturday. Bloomfield played his 558th and final game for Wycombe against Exeter, so there's a bit of fate here.

"The 39-year-old was a good call as an appointment as the prodigal son, and he'll be hoping Jack Grimmer and Ryan Tafazolli both return from injury to come into contention.

"Exeter possess a dreadful record at Adams Park, and have only won one of their previous ten visits to Buckinghamshire, on New Year's Day a decade ago."

Alan's bet: Back Wycombe @ 2.01/1

Southampton v Leicester: Maddison can boost Foxes from 2/1 to 6/1

Southampton 2.8815/8 v Leicester 2.727/4, the Draw 3.4549/20
17:30
Live on Sky Sports

Dave Tindall says: "Southampton weren't the only team to suffer an embarrassing FA Cup exit in midweek. Leicester were big favourites to see off Championship side Blackburn at the King Power but slipped 2-0 behind and eventually fell to a 2-1 loss.

"After forgivable defeats to Manchester United (0-3) and Arsenal (0-1), the FA Cup was supposed to get Leicester firing again but that's now three straight losses in all competitions.

"The last two were suffered without James Maddison in their line-up and stats show that Leicester are a completely different team when the attacking midfielder plays (see Opta stat at bottom of page)."

Dave's bet: Back James Maddison to score & Leicester win @ 7.06/1

Stuttgart v Bayern Munich: All hail the King

Stuttgart 7.87/1 v Bayern Munich 1.434/9, the Draw 5.69/2
17:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video

Kevin Hatchard says: "With Bayern priced as heavy odds-on favourites, I'll turn to the goalscorer markets, and I'm attracted by the price of 3.0 for Kingsley Coman to score at any time.

"Stuttgart have problems in both full-back positions - first-choice left-back Borna Sosa is suspended, while VfB coach Bruno Labbadia has experimented with several right-back options, including playing central defender Waldemar Anton out of position.

"Those issues should play into the hands of Coman, and the Frenchman was outstanding in the win over Union. He has scored in each of his last four competitive appearances, and if he starts here, he's too big a price to ignore to find the net."

Kevin's bet: Back Coman to score (if he starts) @ 3.02/1

PSG v Nantes: Low goals smart selection

PSG 1.341/3 v Nantes 11.010/1, the Draw 6.05/1
20:00
Live on BT Sport 2 and Betfair Live Video

James Eastham says: "Low goals is our selection on a game on Saturday evening where PSG may take their foot off the gas. Christophe Galtier's side are in the middle of an intense period of action but may hold something back here.

"Their impressively easy 3-0 win at nearest challengers Marseille last weekend has given them an eight-point cushion at the top of the table. As a result, they're under much less pressure to collect points in the league now.

"They also have a far more important match when they face Bayern Munich in their Champions League Last 16 second leg next Wednesday. Ahead of that match, they may rotate here, or ease off if and when the points are secured."

James's bet: Back under 3.0 & 3.5 Goal Lines @ 1.84/5

Atletico Madrid v Sevilla: Hosts keep it tight

Atletico Madrid 1.758/11 v Sevilla 6.05/1, The Draw 3.814/5
Saturday 4 May, 20:00
Live on LaLigaTV

Dan Fitch says: "Atletico Madrid will be looking to extend their unbeaten run when they host Sevilla on Saturday night.

"Diego Simeone's team came close to snatching a victory in the Madrid derby last weekend, before eventually conceding a late equaliser to draw 1-1. That extended their undefeated record in LaLiga to seven games (W4 D3).

"Sevilla's form had improved a little, but their followed their Europa League defeat to PSV with a 3-2 home loss to Osasuna. Each of Atletico's last five games have seen a maximum of two goals."

Dan's bet: Back Atletico Madrid double chance & under 2.5 goals @ 1.784/5