Manchester City v Newcastle: Champions to secure tough win

• City have won five straight at home

• Newcastle have drawn at Arsenal and Manchester United

• City flawless at Etihad v Newcastle in recent years

City primed for another title fight

While there's no question that Manchester City have dominated the Premier League under Pep Guardiola, it's worth noting that they haven't always had things their own way.

Last term, only a stirring final-day fightback against Aston Villa kept the title out of Liverpool's clutches, and they have had to dig deep in other seasons under the Catalan.

What that means is that this coach and these players know how to push for a league title under duress, and although they are five points adrift of Arsenal with 13 games to go, no-one is tying red and white ribbons on that trophy just yet. City are still 2.35/4 to win the Premier League, with Arsenal 1.981/1.

The champions' home form remains formidable. They have won their last five games at the Etihad in league and cup, taking the scalps of Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, Wolves and Aston Villa.

Against Villa they excelled against a well-organised side, picking Unai Emery's team apart with surgical precision in a 3-1 win that could easily have been a 5-1 or 6-1 victory.

City's 3-0 win at Bristol City in midweek means they are through to the quarter-finals of the FA Cup, and they have won eight of their last ten games in all competitions.

Guardiola is likely to bring back Kyle Walker, Rodri, Ilkay Gundogan and Erling Haaland.

Newcastle must salvage season after Wembley

After being kept at arm's length by a streetwise and star-studded Manchester United in the Carabao Cup final, Newcastle United and Eddie Howe were left to reflect on an occasion that perhaps just came a bit too early in their development.

Although the Magpies are now armed with Saudi cash, they have spent carefully so far, and Sunday's Wembley experience was the biggest game so far in the careers of some of their players. Despite the 2-0 defeat, it was an important day out for a fanbase starved of success.

Newcastle weren't expected to challenge for a Champions League spot this term, but they are in the mix, and success would turbocharge their development.

Regardless of the funds available and the merits of joining such an historic football institution, there's no doubt that access to European football's VIP club does recruitment no harm.

The Magpies have hit a sticky patch, and their consistent goalscoring problems show no signs of easing. Newcastle have netted just 35 goals in 23 league games, which is the worst attacking record in the top nine.

They have won just two of their last seven competitive matches (they beat hapless Southampton home and away in the League Cup semis), and in the top flight they have won ten games all season, fewer than top-four rivals Tottenham, Liverpool and Fulham.

They have drawn their last three Premier League road matches at Arsenal, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth.

Goalkeeper Nick Pope should return after missing the League Cup final through suspension, while key midfielder Bruno Guimaraes hopes to shake off an ankle injury. Howe may consider a change in attack, with Alexander Isak pushing to replace the off-form Callum Wilson.

City to win, but don't expect a rout

The Opta stats tell us that Manchester City have won their last 13 Premier League home games against Newcastle, and they have won 14 of their last 16 PL home matches in general.

I expect them to win this one too, but they'll have to work for it. Newcastle have played out draws at Manchester United and Arsenal this season, and they were seconds away from doing the same at Liverpool before the hosts grabbed a late and undeserved winner.

We can use the Sportsbook to back City to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 2.26/5, and I think that's a fair price. Don't be distracted by the 3-3 draw in the reverse fixture - both teams are a lot more controlled now, and I just can't see a shootout of that nature here.

Rodri and Joelinton to misbehave

One of my favourite new markets on the Betfair Sportsbook is the fouls market, and we can back both Rodri and Joelinton to commit at least one foul each here.

Rodri has committed 33 fouls in the Premier League this term, while Newcastle's Brazilian behemoth has been whistled for misbehaviour 37 times.

To take it up past evens, I'll go for Riyad Mahrez to have a shot on target (he's averaging 0.76 shots on target per 90 in the PL this term) and City to have five or more shots on target (they have had the most shots and shots on target in the PL this season). That gives us a Bet Builder priced at 2.427/5.