Blackburn Rovers v Sheffield United: Back McBurnie to be booked for Blades

• Tough to separate promotion-chasing duo

• Both side set to meet in FA Cup quarter-final

• McBurnie value to be shown a card

Blackburn Rovers v Sheffield United
Saturday 4th March 2023 12:30
Sky Sports Football

Rovers Return to Top Six

Having occupied a play-off spot for the majority of the season, a run of one win in eight games had seen Blackburn drop to 8th in the Championship, and many believed that would be their race run.

Three wins in a row against Swansea, Blackpool and QPR have rerouted their promotion bid under Jon Dahl Tomasson, the last of which in west London was arguably their best league performance of the season. The 1.93 xG created was their second highest total of the season, and the most on the road, with Sam Gallagher's two goals making up for talisman Ben Brereton Diaz's loss of form.

Having been one of the big data outliers of the season, there is some hope that Blackburn might be improving at this crucial time, but that will be tested here against a team who look destined for the Premier League.

Blades Boost after Boro Bubble Burst By Baggies

Having been gearing themselves up for a Championship title race with Burnley, Sheffield United's defeats to Middlesbrough and then Millwall suddenly had Paul Heckingbottom's men looking over their shoulder at the chasing pack.

Last weekend's 1-0 win at Bramall Lane against Watford was needed, but the big news came from The Hawthorns where third placed Middlesbrough's relentless form finally came to an end in defeat.

Blades now have a seven point gap to the play-offs with a game in hand and, having suffered that scare, will see this as an opportunity that they must take to push themselves further clear.

FA Cup Dress Rehearsal

Given how big a game this is for both sides' promotion possibilities, it's significant that you could argue that the more important match between the two is still to come after they drew each other in the FA Cup Quarter-Finals.

It means both played in midweek having seen off Premier League opposition in impressive fashion, with Blackburn winning 2-1 at Leicester and an Iliman Ndiaye goal sending Spurs out at Bramall Lane.

Blackburn have the extra days rest, but the extra significance of this one is sure not to be lost on the players with a Wembley semi-final at stake next time these two meet in a couple of weeks.

Look to McBurnie for Booking Bonus

In a game that's hard to call, the best way to find value here might be in the bookings markets. Sheffield United rank 2nd in the yellow cards table with 76, and Blackburn aren't far below in 8th with 70. Referee Josh Smith averages 4.4 cards per game this season so, with this being a huge game for both teams, there could be plenty of card action.

The clear value in the "Shown a Card" market is Oli McBurnie. He is 12/5 to be shown a card despite already seeing yellow nine times this season in 1435 minutes of football, averaging one every 159 mins, so more than every other game.

Anyone who has watched the Scottish striker knows how aggressive he is both on and off the ball, and if we do see an ill-tempered affair it's impossible not to see McBurnie play a leading role.