Saturday Football Cheat Sheet: Podcast tips, match previews, superboost and free bets

• Oppose goals and back cards in Everton v Liverpool

• Man City Bet Builder comes to 8/19.00

• Go low on goals when Man Utd host Forest

• Get the best bets for EFL Championships

• Tips for top flight in Spain, Germany and more

• Place £10 bet on any sport on the Betfair Exchange to start your Free Bet Streak

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Premier League tips and predictions

Everton v Liverpool: Oppose goals and back cards

Mark O'Haire: "Eight of the last 10 Merseyside derby dates at Goodison Park have produced Under 3.5 Goals and a repeat appeals. Only seven of Everton's 35 home fixtures under Sean Dyche have featured four goals or more, whilst matches involving the Toffees are averaging only 2.38 non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) per-game, the second-lowest figure in the division.

"Only three of Liverpool's 14 Premier League contests under Arne Slot have also posted Under 3.5 Goals and so I'm happy to oppose goals here, as well as supporting cards. Seven of the previous nine meetings between the pair have seen Over 3.5 Cards bank, as have four of the last five head-to-heads at Goodison. Under 3.5 Goals and Over 3.5 Cards pays 2.05.

"Michael Oliver has been handed the whistle and the experienced referee flashed five yellows and a red in his last Merseyside derby experience. The official has also covered the Over 3.5 Cards line in nine of his 12 league matches this season, avergaing 5.17 cards per-game in that same sample. Meanwhile, the EPL is avergaing 5.11 cards per-game this term."

15:00 - Brentford v Newcastle: Back the Bees

Mark Stinchcombe: "With the best home record in the Premier League, Brentford look underrated as underdogs against Newcastle. The Bees have won six and drawn one of their seven home games, scoring the most goals with 22 - an average of 3.14 per-game. It's deserved too with Brentford creating the second most expected goals on home turf.

"Newcastle have blown hot and cold so far this season to sit 10th in the table, scoring just 17 goals in 14 games. This despite having played six of the bottom eight. Statistically they've not looked great, registering the sixth fewest shots in the league (12.5 per-game), while conceding the sixth most (14.7).

"The Magpies are creating the sixth fewest expected goals, whilst they are third biggest overachievers defensively, having conceded 17 goals yet 23.61 expected goals. Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa have scored 15 goals between them this season and could be in for more here."

15:00 - Crystal Palace v Man City: Back champs Bet Builder at 8/1

Stephen Tudor: "Palace will be on a high after securing only their second victory of 2024/25 in midweek. They will be further bolstered by Eberechi Eze getting another hour or so under his belt at Portman Road after injury. The winger has averaged 3.6 shots per 90 this term along with 2.1 key passes. He improves the Eagles frontline ten-fold.

"Really, though, this is all about City and where they currently are on a new trajectory. Those brave enough to back against them in recent weeks have cashed in a bonanza but a restorative win over Forest in midweek suggests now is the time to stop all that.

"Yes, City are still conceding clear-cut chances, and yes, Erling Haaland has only scored twice in his last nine league outings, but there was enough about City's performance against Forest to intimate that the worst is over. Jack Grealish especially impressed in a number eight role, the midfielder fouled four times.

"The champions' corner count has remained high amidst their recent turmoil and they have scored inside 35 minutes in each of their eight league victories this term."

17:30 - Man Utd v Nottm Forest: Timid attacks point to 0-0

Lewis Jones: "It's hard not to be impressed with Ruben Amorim, off the pitch anyway. He's a superb communicator and is saying it how he sees it, which is appreciated by a fanbase that has had to put up with some mixed messages from Erik ten Hag during his reign.

"The Portuguese had warned a storm was coming for his side before their meek defeat at Arsenal as he's doing a very good job of managing expectations in the early knockings of tenure. I believe he's being genuine too with his comments that certainly paints the picture of games being played like trial games for his players. He wants to sort the wheat from the chaff. The Amad Diallo's from the Anthony's.

"Whilst he continually chops and changes his team, I'm keen on backing Manchester United matches to go down a low scoring path. It's difficult to build patterns of play and consistency in forward areas when constantly refreshing the side.

"Getting a team to score goals is much harder than sorting the defence out and getting a team organised out of possession. That is shown through the expected goals numbers put up by United in their three league games under Amorim - a total of just 2.1 worth of xG has been created including just 0.04 from open play in the defeat at Arsenal.

"And this encounter makes significant appeal when it comes to backing the under 2.5 goals line at 2.16 on the Betfair Exchange."

EFL tips and predictions

15:00 - Millwall v Coventry: Sky Blues to struggle

Jack Critchley: "Although there have been some reservations about Neil Harris' ability to manage at this level, the former striker has successfully managed to revert back to familiar tactics and has made Millwall incredibly tough to break down. The Lions are now unbeaten in their last nine Championship outings and although they've drawn each of their previous three, they haven't conceded more than a single goal in a game since August 17th.

"At this venue, they've taken maximum points off Leeds and Burnley and held the early pacesetters Sunderland to a 1-1 draw. Japhet Tanganga's return from suspension has coincided with the Lions' upturn in form and he is forming a nice partnership with Shaun Hutchinson at the heart of the defence. Millwall could improve their attacking output, yet, if they remain tough to beat, they should continue to flirt with the possibility of reaching the play-offs.

"Frank Lampard couldn't get off to a winning start at out-of-form Cardiff last weekend. It wasn't a hugely convincing performance from the Sky Blues, although Ephron Mason-Clark's enterprising display and the form of Ben Sheaf will give fans plenty of encouragement. Overall, Coventry have won just four of their last 24 games and have been victorious on the road just once all season. Lampard is likely to improve his side's results going forward, however, this is a tough away day for the former Chelsea boss."

15:00 EFL 1 - Wycombe v Reading: Back hosts in 19/5 acca

Andy Robson: "Leaders Wycombe are setting a good pace at the summit in League One and Wanderers have an opportunity to cement their position with a win over promotion rivals Reading at Adams Park. With Royals boss Ruben Selles locked in discussions with Championship side Hull about the vacant managerial position there, this should be a good time to play a Reading side facing a period of uncertainty.

"Even without the added distraction of Selles's impending exit, Reading have had trouble performing on the road this season, winning just twice in nine attempts on the road in League One since the summer. When Reading last travelled to face a fellow promotion hopeful, they were soundly beaten by Stockport (4-1) and they could find the going just as tough against a formidable Wycombe side.

"Red-hot Wanderers have won 11 of their last 12 assignments in all competitions, while they have also pocketed 18 points from the last 18 available at Adams Park in League One. Back Wycombe to come up trumps again in this one."

European football tips and predictions

14:30 Bundesliga - Bayern Munich v Heidenheim: Hosts to bounce back

Kevin Hatchard: "There are still question marks over whether Kompany's Bayern can beat the top sides. They have drawn with Leverkusen, Frankfurt and Dortmund in the league, lost to Leverkusen in the cup and been beaten at Aston Villa and Barcelona in the Champions League. However, against teams below that level they have been lethal, racking up goals and wins.

"Out-of-form Heidenheim look particularly vulnerable this weekend. Frank Schmidt's team have lost nine of their last 11 games in all competitions, and they are really struggling against the big hitters. They lost 4-2 at Borussia Dortmund, 5-2 at Bayer Leverkusen and 4-0 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt. They are shipping two goals per game in the league, and goalkeeper Kevin Müller seems particularly low on confidence."

18:00 Ligue 1 - Nice v Le Havre: Back hosts on handicap

James Eastham: "For Nice, Evann Guessand has developed into an excellent striker this season, while Jeremie Boga and Mohamed-Ali Cho are terrific supporting attackers in the wide positions. When fit, former Tottenham midfielder Tanguy Ndombele has shown flashes of class on the ball, and he has a good oppoturnity to showcase those skills this weekend.

"Le Havre were our 9/4 pre-season tips for relegation and so far we've seen nothing to change our minds. They currently sit 16th out of 18 teams in the Ligue 1 standings, and are just four points above bottom spot. With nine defeats from 13 games played, they travel to Nice deservedly as rank outsiders.

"Understandably, Nice are short odds-on to win (1.63). So instead, we prefer backing Nice on the Asian Handicap. With our selection, you'll get your stakes back if Nice win by a single goal, and make a profit if Nice win by two or more goals."

20:00 La Liga Tips - Girona v Real Madrid: Back 9/2 double

James Eastham: "We always get goals in this fixture, and with the way that both arrive into the latest one, there's no reason to think the trend will be bucked. True, Kylian Mbappe may be struggling in front of goal by his lofty standards, but the instability of both sides out of possession - along with their attack-minded styles - really should keep us on the edge of our seats here.

"Together with over 2.5 goals in the game, I'm going to drag us out to a 9/2 double, courtesy of Bryan Gil to score or assist anytime. Even with reduced attacking firepower compared to last season, Girona are still averaging over two goals per home game in La Liga this term (2.1), and have netted exactly four in each of their last two.

"And for his part, Gil has been directly involved in four goals in his last four appearances in La Liga, scoring once and providing two assists. While he's in good form and likely to be up against Lucas Vazquez at right back (in Dani Carvajal's continued absence), that is a match-up that Girona ought to feel good about."

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