Manchester United v Nottingham Forest: Two timid attacks point to a 0-0 at 17/1

• Amorim taking time to get his philosophies across

• Man Utd games should yield a profit for unders backers

• Forest's defensive process is the fourth best in the PL

• Place £10 bet on any sport on the Betfair Exchange to start your Free Bet Streak

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Manchester United v Nottingham Forest
Saturday 7 December, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports

Profit to be had in backing the unders with Man Utd

It's hard not to be impressed with Ruben Amorim, off the pitch anyway. He's a superb communicator and is saying it how he sees it, which is appreciated by a fanbase that has had to put up with some mixed messages from Erik ten Hag during his reign.

The Portuguese had warned a storm was coming for his side before their meek defeat at Arsenal as he's doing a very good job of managing expectations in the early knockings of tenure. I believe he's being genuine too with his comments that certainly paints the picture of games being played like trial games for his players. He wants to sort the wheat from the chaff. The Amad Diallo's from the Anthony's.

Whilst he continually chops and changes his team, I'm keen on backing Manchester United matches to go down a low scoring path.

It's difficult to build patterns of play and consistency in forward areas when constantly refreshing the side.

Getting a team to score goals is much harder than sorting the defence out and getting a team organised out of possession. That is shown through the expected goals numbers put up by United in their three league games under Amorim - a total of just 2.1 worth of xG has been created including just 0.04 from open play in the defeat at Arsenal.

And this encounter makes significant appeal when it comes to backing the under 2.5 goals line at 2.166/5 on the Betfair Exchange.

Nuno has built a brilliant defensive block

We know Nottingham Forest are going to play a very defensive type of game under Nuno Espirito Santo, who likes to keep things tight.

This calendar year only Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City have a better expected goals process than Forest, offering up just 1.25 worth of expected goals per 90. This could be a game this type of football thrives in up against a team lacking in cohesion and fluidity in attack.

A recent run of conceding nine goals in their last four outings doesn't overly worry me about Forest as I'd rather take a longer-term view rather than concentrate on their results away at the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City. They had only conceded seven goals in their first 10 games this season - and remember, are the only team to beat Liverpool with Arne Slot in charge.

Backing this under goal line gives us plenty of likely correct scorelines on our side, including the 1-0 win for Forest, who have won four games this season by that margin. They are actually responsible for 24 per cent of the total 1-0 wins in the Premier League this season so it's a score that we need to make money from here if it lands.

I'll be having a good swing on that under line but it's also worth adding the 0-0 correct score to your staking plan at 17.016/1 on the Exchange with a low scoring encounter on the cards.

Nuno is on a run of 55 Premier League games without a goalless draw which is surprising considering his pragmatic style whilst Amorim is due one too having managed 86 matches since his last 0-0 stalemate. The trend ender could be coming.

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