English Premier League Tips

Premier League Tipsheet: Five fantastic bets for Saturday from Evens to 9/2

Erik Ten Hag, United boss
Ten Hag's side have been blowing warm and cold all season

Ste Tudor highlights where the goals and three points will likely be found to get this weekend started...


Man United v Everton (12:30) - A game of chance

The Toffees haven't won at Old Trafford in just over a decade but they can at least expect some chances to come their way this Saturday lunchtime. In four of their last five outings, United have surrendered 20+ shots. Indeed, only Sheffield United and West Ham have faced more shots this term.

Moreover, belying their lowly league standing and season of crisis Everton are pretty handy at carving out opportunities. The problem they have is in taking them.

Sean Dyche's men have the biggest difference between their xG and goals scored, a substantial 12.6.

Don't rule out a late strike here, with the Reds notching four times beyond the 85th minute in their last six league games. Everton have come unstuck four times in their last four with only minutes remaining.

And maybe goals will be at a premium too. Erik Ten Hag's warm-and-cold merchants have converted the same amount at Luton in 2023/24. Everton's 1.07 per 90 ratio hardly smacks of prolificacy.

Chances are though that chances will be in abundance.

Back the Toffees to have 15 or more shots @ 1/12.00

Bet here

Bournemouth v Sheff Utd (15:00) - Porous and down



After adding to Burnley's woes last weekend, the Cherries continue their tour of the bottom three with a hosting of a Blades side who are well and truly broken, hemorrhaging multiple goals on a weekly basis.

In what has been an especially grim month for the relegation-doomed visitors they have shipped in five against Villa and Brighton, then six at the hands of Arsenal.

The last team to concede so many goals (72) at this stage of the season across the four divisions was Doncaster Rovers in 1997-98. To put another way, United have been breached every 33 minutes since August.

Bournemouth for their part are consistent in front of goal, only failing to get on the score-sheet twice since early October and those times against Liverpool and Manchester City.

Antoine Semenyo has bagged two in three and the winger is not a bad shout either to pick up a booking, seeing yellow four times in his last 10 starts.

Back over 2.5 goals for the Cherries @ 6/52.20

Bet here

Crystal Palace v Luton (15:00) - Mirror images

After going all Roy Hodgson at Spurs, Oliver Glasner is expected to give his side far more of an attacking remit this weekend, replicating the approach taken in his first game in charge, at home to Burnley.

Then, three at the back, wing-backs pushed high, and intensive pressing from the front brought the rewards of a 3-0 win. Add in a fit-again Eberechi Eze and Palace should be fancied to trouble a Luton rearguard that has conceded 3.2 goals per 90 in their last five league games.

Glasner.jpg

The return of Eze is huge for the Eagles, the England international firing eight in his last 10 outings at Selhurst Park. This season he is averaging 3.1 successful dribbles per 90.

What intrigues about this fixture is that Luton will no doubt be set up much the same way, only for them it's second nature and, despite results in recent weeks saying otherwise, they're rather good at it. No team has put in more crosses. No other team comes close.

Which partly explains the Hatters' high corner-count this term. Palace meanwhile racked up 12 versus Burnley, illustrating they're learning quickly.

Back Eze to score or assist and over 9.5 corners @ 23/103.30

Bet here

Wolves v Fulham (15:00) - Advantage Cottagers

The Cottagers are in decent shape, losing just one of their last six, and are bolstered further by the return of Palhinha to their centre. Only Luton's Cauley Woodrow has made more successful tackles this season.

A five-goal thriller in the corresponding tie last November saw Alex Iwobi and Willian each find the target and that's pertinent given that both players have previously fared well against Wolves. Iwobi has netted more times at their expense than any other team.

Yet it's two other individuals who catch the eye, namely for their consistent creativity in 2023/24. Pablo Sarabia's chance creating per minutes ratio is the second best in the top-flight while Fulham's Andreas Pereira is not far behind.

English Premier League - Top 10 Chances Created

Player Team Apps Chances created Chances/90*
Bruno Fernandes Man Utd 35 136 4
Dominik Szoboszlai Liverpool 36 78 2.2
Enzo Fernández Chelsea 36 68 2
Declan Rice Arsenal 36 63 1.8
Anton Stach Leeds 29 63 2.4
Rayan Cherki Man City 33 61 3.1
Bukayo Saka Arsenal 31 61 2.5
Florian Wirtz Liverpool 33 60 2.3
Jérémy Doku Man City 30 59 3
James Garner Everton 38 56 1.5
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An assist for either is worth a punt, with a combined 11 so far for the opposing stars.

But an early advantage for the visitors is the more persuasive way to go. Wolves have conceded six inside 35 minutes in their last six league contests. Fulham have scored six in that time period in their most recent six.

Back Fulham at 30 minutes @ 3/14.00

Bet here

Arsenal v Brentford (17:30) - Assault continues

The Bees' record against the traditional 'big six' this season is hardly the greatest but at least it's largely made up of narrow losses. Such a result would almost be considered a net gain at the Emirates coming up against a rampant side who have scored every 20 minutes in 2024.

To put the Gunners' blistering form since the new year into perspective their remarkable goal-haul is only six fewer than Manchester United have managed all season. It is a sustained assault that's seen Kai Havertz surprisingly come to the fore with five goal involvements in his last three appearances, while less shockingly Bukayo Saka has been instrumental too.

The only player to rack up 200+ touches in the opposition box this season, Saka has taken on 15 shots in his last four outings, scoring from five of them.

Brentford's Christian Norgaard is fancied here for a booking. The midfielder has been cautioned eight times this season, seven of them against sides in the top half of the table.

Back Saka to have 4 or more shots and Norgaard to be shown a card @ 9/25.50

Bet here

Now read Jack Critchley's Saturday Championship tips here


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Stephen Tudor avatar

Stephen Tudor

Stephen Tudor has written extensively about football and sports betting for well over a decade.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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