Opta Stats: Saturday 3pm Championship Tips

Norwich vs Rotherham

Norwich to put struggling visitors to the sword

Opta Stat:

"Rotherham United have lost eight consecutive league games for the third time in their Football League history, only once before losing more in a row - 10 between February and April 2017"

Norwich were defeated in midweek as their miserable form on the road continued. The Canaries were looking good and appeared to be in full control prior to Borja Sainz's first-half dismissal. At home, it's a completely different story for the Canaries. Only Leeds have picked up more points on their own patch across the last six matches with the East Anglian side netting 14 times and picking up 16 points in the process. 67% of those matches have seen BTTS with 50% featuring three or more goals. They've been dominant when hosting bottom-half clubs with a 7-0-1 record here. They should be able to bag a few more on Saturday afternoon.

Rotherham were shambolic in midweek as they collapsed at the CBS Arena. The Millers have lost four of their last six away games and have conceded 17 goals in the process. Leam Richardson's side appear to getting worse with each passing week and haven't picked up a single point since January 20th. There have been 15 goals across their last three away trips.

Betfair Bet:

• Back Over 2.5 Goals at 8/111.73

English Football League - Championship - Overs Unders 2.5

Team	Games	2.5	%
Coventry	46	29	63
QPR	46	29	63
Southampton	48	30	63
Hull	49	30	61
Sheff Utd	46	27	59
Leicester	46	25	54
Middlesbrough	49	26	53
Sheff Wed	46	24	52
Derby	46	24	52
Ipswich	46	24	52
Swansea	46	23	50
Wrexham	46	23	50
Watford	46	22	48

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Southampton vs Sunderland

Yet another entertaining clash at St.Marys

Opta Stat:

"Since the beginning of last season Sunderland have lost four of their five league games that Jack Clarke has failed to start in (W1), scoring just four goals across those five matches"

Sunderland have undoubtedly been impacted by the absence of Jack Clarke, yet they are still creating chances. The Black Cats find themselves in a bit of a slump, however, they've been decent enough in their last couple of outings - either matching or bettering their opponent's shot count.

Southampton didn't play in midweek and that means they've fallen further behind in the race for automatic promotion. It is absolutely imperative that they don't lose this contest and Russell Martin will be keen for his side to start quickly. The Saints should enjoy competing against a side who enjoy playing exciting attack-minded football and this could be a cracking contest. The hosts have kept just one home clean sheet since Boxing Day and any lapse of concentration could result in yet another concession.

Betfair Bet:

• Back BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals at 10/111.91

Watford vs Coventry

Hornets to fight for Val's future

Opta Stats:

"Watford have lost each of their last three home games player on a Saturday, their worst such run outside of the top-flight since six such defeats in a row under Gianfranco Zola/Giuseppe Sannino in 2013-14"

"Coventry City have won just one of their last four away league games (D1 L2) after winning three in a row between December and January"

Watford picked up a point against Swansea in midweek and put in a decent enough performance. Val Ismael's future is hanging in the balance and their winless run at Vicarage Road isn't helpoing his cause. Nevertheless, they are managing to stay in matches and have lost by more than a single goal margin here on just one occasion so far this season.

Coventry thumped Rotherham in midweek and they are unlikely to have an easier assignment this campaign. Away from home, it's a completely mixed bag and they have kept just a single clean sheet on the road in their last six. BTTS is very short for this contest, so its worth exploring some bigger price alternative markets in this one.

Betfair Bet:

• Back Coventry or Draw and Over 2.5 Goals at 9/52.80

Millwall vs Birmingham

Points shared at the Den

Opta Stats:

"Birmingham City have won just one of their last seven away league games (D2 L4), going four without victory on the road (D1 L3) since a 2-1 win at Stoke in January"

"Millwall have lost nine home league games this season, last suffering 10+ defeats at the Den in a league campaign back in 2014-15 (11)"

Millwall are slowly edging themselves to safety under Neil Harris. Nevertheless, Lions fans are still a little concerned about the style of play and how much of the ball they have been surrendering to the opposition. Across the last two matches, they've taken just 12 shots and aren't likely to come out all guns blazing here.

Birmingham's away form is a little concerning. The Blues just cannot seem to find their rhythm on the road and although they took a point back from Hull in midweek, they survived a number of missed opportunities from the hosts. Nevertheless, they should be able to take at least a point back to the West Midlands and that will put them a step closer to safety.

Betfair Bet:

• Back Birmingham Draw No Bet at 6/52.20

Hull vs Leicester

Tight 90 minutes in Humberside

Opta Stat:

"Leicester City have won just one of their last four away league games against Hull City (D1 L2), though have kept two clean sheets across their last three such matches"

Hull have been frustrating to watch lately. Liam Rosenior's side have plenty of firepower within their squad and they always create plenty of chances, yet they struggle to score more than a single goal in a game. They've netted 2+ goals in just three of their last 11 Championship matches - all of which have come on the road. The hosts don't lose many games here and they tend to keep things fairly tight. They will be aiming to do the double over the league leaders having won 1-0 at the KP earlier in the campaign.

Leicester have gone slightly off the boil in recent weeks, however, they did manage to get back to winning ways with a narrow victory over Sunderland on Tuesday night. They aren't playing in their usual free-flowing manner and could be involved in another tight affair.

Betfair Bet:

• Back Under 2.5 Goals at 9/101.90

Blackburn vs Plymouth

Rovers to edge a tight affair

Opta Stat:

"Plymouth Argyle have lost four of their last five league games (W1), failing to score in each defeat; the Pilgrims had scored in each of their 10 matches prior to this run (W3 D5 L2)"

Blackburn picked up yet another point in midweek as John Eustace's side slowly edge their way to safety. Rovers have the toughest remaining fixture list of any of the bottom eight although this is potentially their easiest assignment. They've been better at Ewood Park this season, although too many draws have hindered their progress lately.

All is not well at Plymouth. The Pilgrims have lost their cutting edge and Morgan Whittaker appears to have lost his mojo. He's playing with his head down and Ian Foster's conservative style doesn't appear to be going down well with the players or the fans. With the visitors struggling to find the net, a single Blackburn goal could be enough to take all three points.

Betfair Bet:

• Back Blackburn to Win by Exactly 1 Goal at 13/53.60

Preston vs Stoke

BTTS at Deepdale

Opta Stat:

"After losing seven of their nine away league games against Preston North End between August 1999 and August 2019 (W1 D1), Stoke City are since unbeaten across their last three visits to Deepdale (W2 D1)"

Stoke were expectedly defeated to Leeds in midweek, yet Steven Schumacher's side gave a good account of themselves. The Potters have improved lately and Schumacher will be hoping to get one over on his former teammate and the man who he replaced at Plymouth.

Preston's game was postponed in midweek and they will be the fresher of the two sides here. PNE are looking much better going forward and with 31 shots across their last three matches, they should create plenty of chances. Ryan Lowe will be hoping that his side can stretch their unbeaten run on Saturday afternoon.

Betfair Bet:

• Back BTTS in Preston vs Stoke at 9/101.90

QPR vs Middlesbrough

QPR to expose Boro's dodgy defending

Opta Stat:

"Queens Park Rangers are unbeaten across their last six league games played on a Saturday (W5 D1) having won just one of the 11 prior (D2 L8)"

QPR have been in exceptional form lately and although they remain in the relegation picture, the Rs are unlikely to drop out of the division playing like this. Marti Cifuentes has found the right balance and although they only drew 2-2 in midweek, they did have chances to win the game (including a Steve Cook overhead kick!). The hosts have scored 2+ in each of their last three home matches and in four of their last five.

Middlesbrough beat Norwich in midweek although they were helped by a red card for the visitors. It ended their home hoodoo and will ease the pressure on the under-fire Michael Carrick. They don't keep many clean sheets and have conceded 2+ in four of their last six matches. They could struggle to contain the hosts.

Betfair Bet:

• Back Over 1.5 QPR Team Goals at 5/42.25