Crystal Palace v West Ham: Back 2/1 Hammers to take three vital points

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Monday, 20:00
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A game of contrasting needs

Although Crystal Palace are not completely out of the running to qualify for Europe next season via their league position, currently sitting 13th in the table, well clear of the relegation zone, it does feel like they are in no man's land a little.

A win on Monday night would move them up to 12th at best, and although points-wise they wouldn't be too far behind the teams in sixth, seventh, eighth etc, they'd require a very good end to the season - they still have Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool to play - and quite a few teams above them to falter in order to climb into the top six or seven themselves.

So it's likely that for out-going manager Oliver Glasner and his men all their European qualifying eggs will be in one basket, and that will be to win the Europa Conference League which will of course qualify them for next season's Europa League.

The Eagles came through a bruising encounter against Fiorentina in the quarter-finals on Thursday night, though the 4-2 aggregate win did come at a cost with key players Adam Wharton and Maxence Lacroix having to come off before half time due to injury, while Jean-Philippe Mateta was taken off at half-time as a precaution.

Unlike Palace, West Ham have had the luxury of a 10-day rest since they last played a game of football, that being a thumping, and morale-boosting 4-0 win over Wolves in the Premier League that took them out of the relegation zone for the first time since December.

And also unlike Palace, the Hammers' only focus is on the Premier League. A win on Monday night will take them four points above the drop zone, and with just five games remaining after the trip to Selhurst Park, that gap would be huge.

West Ham are boosted by having no fresh injury concerns, and in fact Nuno Espirito Santo doesn't have a single known injury to his outfield players so this really does feel like a game between an injury-hit, slightly fatigued team and a fully fit and completely fresh team; the former having one eye elsewhere, the latter with both eyes fully focussed on Monday night.

Away win has to be the call

Given what I've said above you won't be surprised at all to learn that I'm backing the away win in this clash at 2/13.00.

The only reason - and it's a very obvious one - why Crystal Palace are the 7/52.40 favourites is because they have home advantage, but when you consider that they've only won four of 16 home games this season in the Premier League, and that they've lost three of their last five at Selhurst Park - including a 2-0 defeat last season - against West Ham, then that is one good reason to take them on.

It's also worth noting that in those last five clashes at Selhurst Park, West Ham scored at least two in each of those games and 13 goals in total.

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But it's the make-up of this clash that really wants me to back the Hammers to take all three points on Monday night.

It's hard to get away from the fact that Palace were involved in a high-intensity game away to Fiorentina just four days ago and that they suffered some injuries to key players in that match. Both Wharton and Lacroix will miss the game, Edward Nketiah and Evann Guessand are already ruled out, so should Mateta not be risked then the Eagles will be far from at full strength.

And I just can't help but feel that the only game that matters to Palace right now is next week's Europa Conference League semi-final against Shakhtar Donetsk.

For West Ham, the only game that matters is this one. They're going into it on the back of a confidence-boosting 4-0 win over Wolves, they've had a 10-day break, and they have a fully fit squad, which includes of course the excellent Jarrod Bowen who ha been in tremendous form of late.

Hammers to score at least two with Bowen shining

For those who like to have a wager based on statistics and form then thankfully I've found one that goes along with my thinking that West Ham could easily be the better team on Monday night.

The Hammers have a decent record at Selhurst Park in recent seasons, winning three of their last five visits to South London. But what stands out in those last five matches is that they've scored at least two in every one of them and 13 goals in total. So in a game that I fancy Santo's men to play well in, backing West Ham Over 1.5 Goals at 13/82.63 is definitely worth a wager.

But if I'm going to back the Hammers to score at least two goals then I have to include Bowen in that wager. West Ham's star man has had nine goal involvements in his last nine league games (two goals, seven assists) so I will add him to score or assist in this clash to the goals bet, and that pays out at just over 9/43.25.

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