What The Stats Say: Opta Stats suggest Liverpool can cope without Salah

Jurgen Klopp.
Will Jurgen Klopp have the answers when Liverpool host Leicester?

Dan Fitch likes the price of Liverpool's in-form forward Diogo Jota to score against Leicester, as he analyses the Opta stats for the weekend Premier League games...

“Liverpool forward Diogo Jota has scored in all three of his Premier League home games for the Reds so far – no player in the club’s history has scored in each of their first four top-flight home games.”

Back Jota to score at 2.68/5.

Chelsea attack won't be stopped

Newcastle 7.26/1 v Chelsea 1.548/15; The Draw 4.77/2
Saturday 21 November, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Chelsea are unbeaten in six Premier League games (W3 D3), with only Spurs on a longer current such run in the competition (7). The Blues have netted at least three goals in five of those six games, failing to score in the other."

As stubborn as Newcastle can sometimes be defensively, it's hard to see them containing this Chelsea side. Over 2.5 goals is 1.728/11.

Goals flowing at Villa

Aston Villa 2.285/4 v Brighton 3.412/5; The Draw 3.711/4
Saturday 21 November, 15:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Aston Villa have won three Premier League games by a margin of 3+ goals this season, as many as they had in their previous four campaigns in the competition combined (1 in 2013-14, 1 in 2014-15, 0 in 2015-16, 1 in 2019-20). They last won more by such a margin in a single top-flight season back in 2007-08 (6)."

With Aston Villa full of goals and Brighton also an attacking side, this looks like another match where over 2.5 goals should land, this time at 1.824/5.

Hosts are a big price

Tottenham 4.216/5 v Manchester City 1.8810/11; The Draw 4.216/5
Saturday 21 November, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Following their opening weekend defeat against Everton, Tottenham are now on the longest current unbeaten run in the Premier League (7 - W5 D2). Spurs are looking to win four consecutive league games for the first time since February 2019 under Mauricio Pochettino."

Based on current form it's hard to see why these odds are so wide. Tottenham are 2.111/10 to avoid defeat in the Double Chance market.

Slim win for United

Manchester United 1.341/3 v West Brom 12.011/1; The Draw 5.95/1
Saturday 21 November, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"West Brom are one of three sides yet to concede in the opening 15 minutes of their Premier League games so far this season (along with Arsenal and Aston Villa)."

The Baggies' best hope is to keep this one tight and with Manchester United struggling to score at Old Trafford, a home win and under 3.5 goals is worth considering at 2.77/4.

Everton defence unreliable

Fulham 4.03/1 v Everton 1.9720/21; The Draw 3.953/1
Sunday 22 November, 12:00
Live on BBC One

"Everton have conceded at least twice in each of their last five Premier League games - they last conceded 2+ goals in six consecutive league games back in October 2008."

Fulham have scored in their last two home games and over 2.5 goals looks nicely priced at 1.84/5.

Blades no longer hard to cut through

Sheffield United 3.211/5 v West Ham 2.546/4; The Draw 3.412/5
Sunday 22 November, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Sheffield United haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last 11 Premier League games, conceding 20 goals in the process. Their previous 20 goals conceded in the competition came over a period of 21 matches."

With the Blades no longer defensively reliable, both teams to score could land at 1.9620/21.

Gunners lacking firepower

Leeds 3.412/5 v Arsenal 2.285/4; The Draw 3.814/5
Sunday 22 November, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Arsenal have lost three of their last four Premier League games (W1), as many as in their previous 12 (W8 D1 L3). The Gunners have failed to score in each of those three defeats, and haven't found the net from open play in their last six hours and 26 minutes of Premier League action."

Leeds have been poor defensively of late, but under 2.5 goals could be successful at 2.285/4.

Jota the man in form

Liverpool 2.021/1 v Leicester 3.814/5; The Draw 4.03/1
Sunday 22 November, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Event

"Liverpool forward Diogo Jota has scored in all three of his Premier League home games for the Reds so far - no player in the club's history has scored in each of their first four top-flight home games."

With Mohamed Salah out, Jota should start and is 2.68/5 to add to his goal tally.

Burnley defence better than you'd think

Burnley 2.8615/8 v Crystal Palace 2.915/8; The Draw 3.211/5
Monday 23 November, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Despite their low position in the table, Burnley have the second lowest expected goals against figure in the Premier League this season (7.5), behind only Chelsea (7.4). This means the Clarets have conceded around five goals more than would be expected based on the quality of chances they've faced (12 goals conceded)."

This could be decided by a single goal and under 1.5 goals can be backed at 2.915/8.

Saints are fast starters

Wolves 2.47/5 v Southampton 3.412/5; The Draw 3.39/4
Monday 23 November, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"No side has scored more first-half goals in the Premier League this season than Southampton, with Saints' 10 goals before half-time more than opponents Wolves in total so far this term (8)."

Southampton generally score away from home and it could be worth taking a chance on them leading at the break, at 4.216/5.

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Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 254.00 pts
Returned: 270.13 pts
P/L: +16.13 pts

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