What The Stats Say: Opta reveals West Ham quality in 2021

David Moyes.
Will David Moyes inspire West Ham when they host Sheffield United?

West Ham are one of the form sides this year and Dan Fitch likes their price to beat Sheffield United, as he previews the weekend Premier League games using Opta statistics.

"Coming into this weekend's fixtures, only Manchester City (24) have won more Premier League points than West Ham so far in 2021 (16), with the Hammers winning five of their seven league games so far this calendar year (D1 L1)."

Against a Sheffield United side that are bottom of the Premier League, the 1.774/5 on offer looks like a great price for a West Ham win.

Goals should flow in weekend opener

Leicester 3.613/5 v Liverpool 2.166/5; The Draw 3.711/4
Saturday 13 February, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Managers who've previously managed Liverpool have lost their last 12 Premier League matches against the Reds by an aggregate score of 39-8. The last former Reds boss to win against them in the Premier League was Roy Hodgson in April 2012 with West Brom."

There should be goals in this one and over 2.5 looks too big at odds of 1.845/6.

Burnley lacking firepower

Crystal Palace 2.486/4 v Burnley 3.412/5; The Draw 3.39/4
Saturday 13 February, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Burnley are averaging just 8.9 shots and 2.9 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, their lowest averages in any of their seven campaigns in the competition."

With Palace hardly prolific themselves, under 1.5 goals could be worth considering at 2.9215/8.

Spurs can score in defeat

Manchester City 1.364/11 v Tottenham 10.09/1; The Draw 6.05/1
Saturday 13 February, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Son Heung-min has scored six goals in his last eight appearances against Man City for Spurs in all competitions - since Pep Guardiola took over at Man City, only Jamie Vardy (9) has scored more goals against City than Son."

With Son and Harry Kane back in tandem, Spurs should find the net and you can back a home win and both teams to score at 3.02/1.

In-form sides will draw

Brighton 2.8815/8 v Aston Villa 2.6413/8; The Draw 3.613/5
Saturday 13 February, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Brighton are unbeaten in their last five Premier League games (W3 D2), with only Manchester City on a longer current run without defeat in the competition (14)."

With Aston Villa also playing well, the draw is worth backing at 3.613/5, in what looks destined to be a tight match.

Repeat of midweek cup result

Southampton 2.56/4 v Wolves 3.39/4; The Draw 3.39/4
Sunday 14 February, 12:00
Live on Amazon Prime

"Wolves haven't opened the scoring in any of their last 13 Premier League games (W2 D4 L7). Only three clubs have ever had a longer run of Premier League games without netting the first goal - Manchester City in 1995 (16), Coventry in 1996 (14) and West Ham in 1997 (14)."

Wolves are struggling to assert themselves in games and when these teams met in the FA Cup on Thursday, it was Southampton that won 2-0. Back the Saints to win again at 2.56/4.

Baggies still loose in defence

West Brom 11.010/1 v Manchester United 1.351/3; The Draw 5.95/1
Sunday 14 February, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"West Brom have conceded the most Premier League goals this season (54), while Manchester United have scored the most (49). A goal for Man Utd will see them reach 50 in the Premier League in 24 or fewer games for the first time since 2012-13 under Alex Ferguson (20 games)."

Sam Allardyce was expected to tighten up West Brom, but instead he's made them more dangerous in attack. A Manchester United win and over 2.5 goals is 1.834/5.

Gunners not firing

Arsenal 1.9520/21 v Leeds 4.216/5; The Draw 3.9
Sunday 14 February, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Only the bottom four sides coming into this weekend have failed to score in more Premier League games than Arsenal this season (9). The Gunners last failed to find the net in more different league games back in the 2005-06 campaign (11)."

This looks like a match that could go either way, but under 3.5 goals seems like a safe investment at 1.635/8.

Everton rebuilding morale at home

Everton 1.981/1 v Fulham 4.3100/30; The Draw 3.711/4
Sunday 14 February, 19:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"The home team has won 23 of the 29 Premier League meetings between Everton and Fulham, although the Toffees won 3-2 at Craven Cottage earlier this season."

Everton have been in poor home form of late, but beat Spurs 5-4 at Goodison Park in the FA Cup this week. Back the home side to win again at 1.981/1.

Great price for West Ham

West Ham 1.774/5 v Sheffield United 5.69/2; The Draw 3.9
Monday 15 February, 18:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Coming into this weekend's fixtures, only Manchester City (24) have won more Premier League points than West Ham so far in 2021 (16), with the Hammers winning five of their seven league games so far this calendar year (D1 L1)."

Against a Sheffield United side that are bottom of the Premier League, the 1.774/5 on offer looks like a great price for a West Ham win.

Another win for Chelsea

Chelsea 1.261/4 v Newcastle 14.013/1; The Draw 6.86/1
Monday 15 February, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Newcastle have lost their last seven away league games against Chelsea, scoring just three goals and conceding 18."

Newcastle are without the injured Callum Wilson and with Chelsea defending well under Thomas Tuchel, the hosts should win to nil at 1.9420/21.

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Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 442.00 pts
Returned: 451.85 pts
P/L: +9.85 pts

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