What The Stats Say: Opta shows Liverpool's strength against promoted clubs

Mohamed Salah.
Will it be another successful match for Mohamed Salah and Liverpool when they host West Brom?

Dan Fitch crunches the Opta numbers from the festive Premier League fixtures and finds that Liverpool are truly a side that West Brom should fear.

“Liverpool have lost one of their last 52 home Premier League matches against newly promoted sides (W42 D9), a 2-1 defeat to Blackpool in the 2010/11 season.”

After Liverpool’s 7-0 win at Crystal Palace last weekend, they look a safe bet to win both halves at 2.01/1.

United go for eleventh away win

Leicester 3.185/40 v Manchester United 2.427/5; The Draw 3.711/4
Saturday 26 December, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Manchester United have won each of their last 10 Premier League away games. In top-flight history, only two sides have ever won 11 in a row on the road - Chelsea between April-December 2008 and Manchester City between May-December 2017."

United are a big price considering their remarkable away record and can be backed at 1.768/11 in the Draw No Bet market.

Villa can keep on scoring

Aston Villa 2.0421/20 v Crystal Palace 4.03/1; The Draw 3.9
Saturday 26 December, 15:00
Live on BBC One

"Crystal Palace have conceded in each of their last 13 Premier League games, since beating Southampton 1-0 on the opening weekend. The Eagles conceded as many goals in their 0-7 defeat to Liverpool last time out as they had in their six previous league games combined."

With Aston Villa a dangerous side going forward, over 2.5 goals should land at 1.834/5.

Saints will soar again

Fulham 3.39/4 v Southampton 2.427/5; The Draw 3.55/2
Saturday 26 December, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Southampton lost their first two Premier League games against newly promoted teams under Ralph Hasenhüttl but have since won each of their last nine in a row. Saints have never won 10 in a row in the top-flight against newly promoted teams, also winning nine in a row between October 1979 and January 1981."

With Southampton generally reliable away from home, their odds of 2.427/5 to win seem generous.

Chelsea will win London derby

Arsenal 4.216/5 v Chelsea 1.991/1; The Draw 3.814/5
Saturday 26 December, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Arsenal are winless in their last seven Premier League games (D2 L5) - only once in the competition's history have they had a longer run without a win, going eight games between November 1992-January 1993."

With Arsenal in such poor form, Chelsea's price of 1.991/1 to claim three points has to be taken.

Another clean sheet for City

Manchester City 1.141/7 v Newcastle 29.028/1; The Draw 11.010/1
Saturday 26 December, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Newcastle haven't won any of their last 16 away league games against Man City (D2 L14), last winning such a game against them in September 2000 (1-0). Their current run of 11 straight away defeats against Man City is their longest such losing streak in their league history."

Manchester City have been defending well of late and you can back them to beat Newcastle to nil at 1.768/11.

Everton will beat blunt Blades

Sheffield United 4.57/2 v Everton 1.9420/21; The Draw 3.814/5
Saturday 26 December, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Sheffield United remain winless in their 14 Premier League games this season (D2 L12) and are just the third side to be without a win by Christmas in English top-flight history after Burnley in 1889-90 and Bolton in 1902-03."

Everton have regained some form and are good value at 1.9420/21 to win.

Burnley will keep it tight

Leeds 1.814/5 v Burnley 4.77/2; The Draw 4.1
Sunday 27 December, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Burnley have kept four away clean sheets in their seven Premier League away games this season, with only Aston Villa (5) keeping more on the road."

The Clarets have really tightened up and under 2.5 goals could land at 2.47/5.

Goals will flow

West Ham 2.486/4 v Brighton 3.211/5; The Draw 3.55/2
Sunday 27 December, 14:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Brighton have the highest difference between expected goals conceded (14.7) and goals conceded (22) in the Premier League this term, shipping around seven goals more than would normally be expected based on the quality of their chances faced."

Both teams to score is a reliable bet for Brighton and can be backed at 1.774/5.

Another big win for Liverpool

Liverpool 1.152/13 v West Brom 28.027/1; The Draw 10.519/2
Sunday 27 December, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Liverpool have lost one of their last 52 home Premier League matches against newly promoted sides (W42 D9), a 2-1 defeat to Blackpool in the 2010/11 season."

After Liverpool's 7-0 win at Crystal Palace last weekend, they look a safe bet to win both halves at 2.01/1.

Few goals at Molineux

Wolves 3.814/5 v Tottenham 2.226/5; The Draw 3.412/5
Sunday 27 December, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Since their return to the Premier League in 2018, Wolves average just 0.7 goals per Premier League game without Raúl Jiménez in the starting lineup, compared to 1.3 goals-per-game when the Mexican does start."

With Spurs also struggling to score goals of late, under 2.5 goals should land at 1.75/7.

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Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 337.00 pts
Returned: 353.35 pts
P/L: +16.35 pts

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