What The Stats Say: Opta stat good news for Manchester United

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.
Will Ole Gunnar Solskjaer be applauding his Manchester United team after their match with Newcastle?

Newcastle can't score without Callum Wilson and Dan Fitch is backing Manchester United to beat them to nil, as he previews the weekend Premier League action using Opta statistics...

“Newcastle have lost all three Premier League games without scoring when Callum Wilson has been absent this season – the forward has netted 40% of their Premier League goals this season (10 of 25).”

Wilson is out of this match with a hamstring injury and Manchester United can be backed at 2.26/5 to win to nil.

Leeds means goals

Wolves 2.6413/8 v Leeds 3.02/1; The Draw 3.55/2
Friday 19 February, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Patrick Bamford has scored six goals in five appearances for Leeds in Friday matches (1.20 per game on average); of players to play at least five games on a specific day of the week for Leeds, only Jermaine Beckford on Mondays (9 in 8 games, 1.13) has also averaged more than a goal per game on a day of the week for the club."

With Bamford scoring regularly this season and Wolves starting to find some form, over 2.5 goals could land at 1.9520/21.

Another win for Chelsea

Southampton 5.14/1 v Chelsea 1.824/5; The Draw 3.9
Saturday 20 February, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Southampton have lost 24 Premier League games against Chelsea; only versus Manchester United (28) have they lost more in the competition."

Chelsea are much improved under Thomas Tuchel and should pick up another win against struggling Southampton, at odds of 1.824/5.

Clarets climbing to safety

Burnley 2.111/10 v West Brom 4.216/5; The Draw 3.412/5
Saturday 20 February, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"West Brom have won just two of their 24 Premier League games this season (W2 D7 L15) - eight of the 10 previous sides with two or fewer wins at this stage of a Premier League campaign were eventually relegated, with West Brom in 2004-05 one of the teams to escape relegation (also Fulham in 2007-08)."

Burnley are slowly inching up the table and can take a big step towards further distancing themselves from the relegation zone, with a win at 2.111/10.

Goals in derby

Liverpool 1.511/2 v Everton 7.87/1; The Draw 4.77/2
Saturday 20 February, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Everton are unbeaten in each of their last seven Premier League away games (W5 D2); they last enjoyed a longer such streak in March 2016 (8 matches)."

With Everton in good away form and Liverpool having lost their last three home games, the visitors should at the very least prove to be competitive. Both teams to score is 1.84/5.

Vital win for Fulham

Fulham 2.35/4 v Sheffield United 3.711/4; The Draw 3.39/4
Saturday 20 February, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Sheffield United have won just one of their last 12 away league games against Fulham (D3 L8) and are winless in their last five visits to Craven Cottage since a 3-2 win in September 1985."

Fulham have claimed four valuable away points in the last week and look value to claim a vital home win at 2.35/4.

Kane loves playing West Ham

West Ham 2.77/4 v Tottenham 2.8415/8; The Draw 3.55/2
Sunday 21 February, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored 11 goals in 15 Premier League games against West Ham - he's only scored more in the competition against Leicester (14)."

Though Tottenham are struggling, the price of 2.56/4 for Kane to add to his record against West Ham, is too big to ignore.

Vardy back and already scoring

Aston Villa 3.02/1 v Leicester 2.466/4; The Draw 3.711/4
Sunday 21 February, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Leicester City striker Jamie Vardy has scored five goals in his last four Premier League appearances against Aston Villa, netting home and away braces against the Villans last term."

Vardy was back among the goals against Liverpool last weekend and is 2.26/5 to score again.

Another clean sheet for City

Arsenal 7.06/1 v Manchester City 1.558/15; The Draw 4.67/2
Sunday 21 February, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Arsenal have failed to score in their last three home league games against Man City, losing each time. The Gunners have never failed to find the net in four consecutive home league games against an opponent in their history."

With Manchester City rarely conceding these days, it's worth backing them to win to nil at 2.68/5.

Newcastle can't score without Wilson

Manchester United 1.292/7 v Newcastle 12.5; The Draw 6.411/2
Sunday 21 February, 19:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Newcastle have lost all three Premier League games without scoring when Callum Wilson has been absent this season - the forward has netted 40% of their Premier League goals this season (10 of 25)."

Wilson is out of this match with a hamstring injury and Manchester United can be backed at 2.26/5 to win to nil.

Low scoring grudge match

Brighton 1.794/5 v Crystal Palace 5.85/1; The Draw 3.711/4
Monday 22 February, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Crystal Palace have failed to score in a higher share of their away games in the Premier League this season (58% - 7 of 12) than they have in any other campaign in the competition's history."

Brighton are much improved defensively and under 2.5 looks likely to land at 1.75/7.

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Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 442.00 pts
Returned: 451.85 pts
P/L: +9.85 pts

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