What The Stats Say: Opta reveals Arsenal's reliability at home

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta.
Will Mikel Arteta's Arsenal beat Leicester?

Arsenal are very consistent at home and can be backed at a big price against Leicester, says Dan Fitch as he uses Opta stats to pick ten Premier League bets for the weekend.

"Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League home games (W9 D2), after losing their final three at the Emirates in 2019.""

With that record, Arsenal’s price of 2.01/1 to beat Leicester looks rather generous.

Villa can go top with win

Aston Villa 2.3411/8 v Leeds 3.39/4; The Draw 3.711/4
Friday 23 October, 20:00
Live on BT Sport Box Office

"Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League games (W6 D2), the longest current run of all sides in the competition. They've earned 20 points in these eight games, more than they had in their previous 26 matches in the competition (19)."

With Leeds proving competitive in the Premier League this season, cautiously back the hosts at 1.728/11 in the Draw No Bet market.

Hammers are now scoring regularly

West Ham 8.415/2 v Manchester City 1.422/5; The Draw 5.49/2
Saturday 24 October, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"West Ham have scored 10 goals in their last three Premier League games, beating Wolves 4-0 at home, Leicester 3-0 away and drawing 3-3 at Spurs."

It's not a huge price, but both teams to score should land at 1.674/6, considering Manchester City's unpredictability at the back.

Palace can edge London derby

Fulham 2.9215/8 v Crystal Palace 2.767/4; The Draw 3.39/4
Saturday 24 October, 15:00
Live on BT Sport Box Office

"Fulham have lost their last three home Premier League games by a 3+ goal margin, scoring none and conceding 10 goals. No team in top-flight history has ever lost four consecutive home matches by a margin of at least three goals."

There is value in Crystal Palace's price. With Fulham getting their first point on the board last weekend, back Palace in the Draw No Bet market at 1.875/6.

Goals will flow at Old Trafford

Manchester United 2.546/4 v Chelsea 2.962/1, The Draw 3.711/4
Saturday 24 October, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Since the start of last season, Chelsea's away Premier League games have seen more goals scored than any other side's have in the competition (87), with the Blues shipping more goals on the road than any other Premier League side in that time (42)."

With Manchester United hardly defensively reliable themselves, over 3.5 goals is worth backing at 2.68/5.

Liverpool can keep clean sheet without Van Dijk

Liverpool 1.282/7 v Sheffield United 13.012/1; The Draw 6.86/1
Saturday 14 October, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Box Office

"Liverpool have won their last three Premier League games against Sheffield United without conceding a single goal, winning by an aggregate score of 3-0 last season."

Liverpool kept a clean sheet away at Ajax in their first game since Virgil van Dijk was injured and are 2.111/10 to win to nil.

Calvert-Lewin odds continue to defy reality

Southampton 3.185/40 v Everton 2.486/4; The Draw 3.711/4
Sunday 15 October, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored in all five of Everton's Premier League games this season, netting seven goals in total."

Considering these statistics, Calvert-Lewin's price of 2.47/5 to find the net looks big.

Take a chance on Wolves' scoring power

Wolves 1.814/5 v Newcastle 5.79/2; The Draw 3.613/5
Sunday 15 October, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Both teams have scored in each of the 10 Premier League meetings between Wolves and Newcastle - it's the most played fixture in the competition in which neither side has kept a clean sheet."

Newcastle are letting the opposition have a lot of shots and over 2.5 goals could prove overpriced at 2.56/4.

Gunners in good form at home

Arsenal 2.01/1 v Leicester 4.1; The Draw 3.9
Sunday 15 October, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Box Office

"Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League home games (W9 D2), after losing their final three at the Emirates in 2019."

With that record, Arsenal's price of 2.01/1 to beat Leicester looks rather generous.

Brighton will claim second win of season

Brighton 1.845/6 v West Brom 4.77/2; The Draw 4.03/1
Monday 26 October, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Box Office

"In league competition, the home side has won each of the last five meetings between Brighton and West Brom, in a run stretching back to March 1991."

Brighton have played better this season than their points haul suggests and you can back them at 1.845/6 to beat promoted West Brom.

Tottenham to win, but will concede once more

Burnley 5.85/1 v Spurs 1.674/6; The Draw 4.03/1
Monday 26 October, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Tottenham have kept just two clean sheets in their last 28 Premier League away games, both in goalless draws last season against relegated sides Bournemouth and Watford."

Spurs have won their two away games comfortably, while conceding, so go for an away win and both teams to score at 3.55/2

Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 155.00 pts
Returned: 164.72 pts
P/L: +9.72 pts

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