What The Stats Say: Wolves can inflict Hammer blow

  • Dan Fitch
  • Three minutes min read
Wolves manager Nuno.
Will the Wolves manager Nuno be celebrating after his visit to West Ham?

Using Opta Stats, Dan Fitch picks out his best Premier League bets and he especially likes the price for Wolves to win away at West Ham.

“Wolves have won both of their Premier League visits to the London Stadium since their promotion in 2018 – it’s the first time they have ever won back-to-back away league games at West Ham.”

With West Ham losing both of their first two Premier League games, Wolves look a little overpriced to inflict another defeat at 2.26/5.

More defensive issues for United

Brighton 5.14/1 v Manchester United 1.834/5; The Draw 3.9
Saturday 26 September, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Neal Maupay was involved in all three of Brighton's goals in their 3-0 win against Newcastle last weekend (2 goals, 1 assist.)"

With Brighton looking so dangerous going forward against Newcastle and Manchester United so poor defensively against Crystal Palace, both teams to score should land at 1.845/6.

Positional change not reflected by odds

Crystal Palace 3.953/1 v Everton 2.1411/10; The Draw 3.55/2
Saturday 26 September, 15:00
Live on Amazon Prime

"Crystal Palace's Wilfried Zaha has scored three goals in his two league games so far this season, netting the winner in both matches. It's just one goal fewer than he scored in 38 Premier League games last season."

Zaha has been playing as a striker and considering that positional change, odds of 4.57/2 for him to continue his scoring streak are far too big.

Three points for Chelsea

West Brom 9.89/1 v Chelsea 1.42/5; The Draw 5.39/2
Saturday 26 September, 17:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"West Brom have conceded more goals than any other Premier League side so far this season (8); indeed, their eight goals against is the most they've ever shipped in their first two games of a league campaign."

Chelsea have the attacking talent to take advantage of West Brom's defensive shortcomings, with an away win and over 2.5 goals available at 2.01/1.

Burnley will breach Saints defence

Burnley 3.39/4 v Southampton 2.427/5; The Draw 3.412/5
Saturday 26 September, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Since Ralph Hasenhüttl's first game in charge in December 2018, Southampton have dropped more points from winning positions than any other Premier League side (37), letting a further three slip from a 1-0 lead in their defeat vs Spurs last weekend."

Southampton's defensive issues were badly exposed against Tottenham and you can back both teams to score at 1.875/6.

Leeds are new entertainers

Sheffield United 2.89/5 v Leeds 2.89/5; The Draw 3.55/2
Sunday 27 September, 12:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Leeds United's first two Premier League games this season have seen 14 goals scored (7 for, 7 against), more than in any other team's first two matches of a Premier League campaign. They are the first top-flight side to both score and concede seven goals in their first two matches since Liverpool in the 1932-33 season."

It looks like Leeds are going to be an extremely entertaining team to watch this season and over 2.5 goals seems big at 2.0811/10.

Kane is able

Tottenham 1.491/2 v Newcastle 8.27/1; The Draw 4.84/1
Sunday 27 September, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Harry Kane assisted all four of Son Heung-min's goals in Tottenham's 5-2 victory at Southampton last weekend. Since the start of 2015-16, the pair have combined for more Premier League goals than any other duo in the competition (24)."

Kane's fine form since returning from injury after lockdown has gone under the radar a little. The England captain is 1.834/5 to score.

Home win but Foxes can steal goal

Manchester City 1.3130/100 v Leicester 11.010/1; The Draw 6.611/2
Sunday 27 September, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Manchester City have won six of their last seven Premier League games against Leicester City, losing the other 1-2 on Boxing Day in the 2018-19 season."

The hosts should have too much for Leicester again, but it seems likely to be competitive. A home win and both teams to score is 2.56/4.

Third straight defeat for Hammers

West Ham 3.814/5 v Wolves 2.26/5; The Draw 3.55/2
Sunday 27 September, 19:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Wolves have won both of their Premier League visits to the London Stadium since their promotion in 2018 - it's the first time they have ever won back-to-back away league games at West Ham."

With West Ham losing both of their first two Premier League games, Wolves look a little overpriced to inflict another defeat at 2.26/5.

No clean sheets at Cottage

Fulham 3.185/40 v Aston Villa 2.6213/8; The Draw 3.412/5
Monday 28 September, 17:45
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Aston Villa haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last 26 away games in the top-flight, since a 0-0 draw vs West Brom in January 2016."

Fulham have conceded seven goals in two games, so both teams to score seems a safe bet at 1.845/6.

Goals will flow at Anfield

Liverpool 1.538/15 v Arsenal 6.611/2; The Draw 5.04/1
Monday 28 September, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Since Jürgen Klopp's first Premier League game in charge of Liverpool, only Manchester City (35 v Watford & 30 v Bournemouth) have scored more goals against a side than his Liverpool team has versus Arsenal (27)."

Arsenal have started the season in fine goalscoring form and over 3.5 goals is worth backing at 2.56/4.

Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 66.00 pts
Returned: 69.28 pts
P/L: +3.28 pts

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