What The Stats Say: Opta shows Saints value to beat rock bottom Blades

Danny Ings
Will Danny Ings be celebrating after Southampton's match with Sheffield United?

Dan Fitch has studied the Opta Stats to make his Premier League predictions, including a great price on Southampton to beat bottom of the table Sheffield United.

"Southampton have won six of their opening 11 games in the Premier League this season - only in 2014-15 (8) have they picked up more victories in their opening 11 games of a top-flight campaign."

With Sheffield United bottom of the table with just one point, Southampton to win at 1.84/5 could be the best bet of the weekend.

West Ham can make another fast start

Leeds 2.3211/8 v West Ham 3.39/4; The Draw 3.814/5
Friday 11 December, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"West Ham have opened the scoring in each of their last six Premier League games - only once have they scored the first goal in more consecutive Premier League matches (seven between February-April 2002)."

With Leeds not showing much consistency at home, it could be worth taking a chance on West Ham to be leading at the break at 3.711/4.

Low-scoring match likely

Wolves 2.3811/8 v Aston Villa 3.412/5; The Draw 3.412/5
Saturday 12 December, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Wolves have conceded fewer home goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (5). Indeed, they've kept eight clean sheets in their last 12 Premier League games at Molineux."

Villa are a threat going forward these days, but even so, under 2.5 goals looks value at 1.865/6, given the defensive record of the hosts.

Three points for Newcastle

Newcastle 2.226/5 v West Brom 3.711/4; The Draw 3.55/2
Saturday 12 December, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"West Bromwich Albion have conceded the most goals (23), have the highest expected goals against total (22.2), faced the most shots (167) and shots on target (68) in the Premier League this season."

This is a game that Newcastle will feel that they can win and their odds of 2.226/5 are big enough to back them to do so.

Value with underdogs in derby

Manchester United 4.57/2 v Manchester City 1.824/5; The Draw 4.3100/30
Saturday 12 December, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Manchester United won both Premier League meetings with Manchester City last season - they last won three in a row in the competition against their local rivals between November 2008-April 2010 (four wins)."

United are very unpredictable, but the value is clearly with them at this price. You can play it safe by backing them in the Draw No Bet market and still get odds of 3.412/5.

Everton will lose again

Everton 4.57/2 v Chelsea 1.834/5; The Draw 4.1
Saturday 12 December, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Everton have lost their last two Premier League home games (v Man Utd and Leeds) - they've not lost three in a row at home since March 2016, while manager Carlo Ancelotti hasn't lost three consecutive home league games since November 2006 with Milan."

Current form suggests that Everton will taste a third consecutive home defeat, with Chelsea decent value at 1.834/5.

Saints will go marching in

Southampton 1.84/5 v Sheffield United 5.24/1; The Draw 4.03/1
Sunday 13 December, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Southampton have won six of their opening 11 games in the Premier League this season - only in 2014-15 (8) have they picked up more victories in their opening 11 games of a top-flight campaign."

With Sheffield United bottom of the table with just one point, Southampton to win at 1.84/5 could be the best bet of the weekend.

Spurs can spark at Palace

Crystal Palace 4.94/1 v Tottenham 1.784/5; The Draw 4.03/1
Sunday 13 December, 14:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Crystal Palace have lost 18 of their last 22 home Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the top-four of the league (W1 D3), with their only win in that run coming in Roy Hodgson's first win as Eagles boss in October 2017 against Chelsea."

For a side that are top of the Premier League, 1.784/5 is pretty generous for a Spurs victory.

Liverpool will keep pace at the top

Fulham 9.617/2 v Liverpool 1.341/3; The Draw 6.25/1
Sunday 13 December, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Liverpool have won their last 18 Premier League matches against newly-promoted teams - in top-flight history only Chelsea (27 between October 2002 and November 2006) have had a longer winning run against newly-promoted teams."

Liverpool are continuing to win games despite their injury problems and are 2.01/1 to win half-time/full-time.

Low-scoring sides meet

Arsenal 1.68/13 v Burnley 7.06/1; The Draw 4.216/5
Sunday 13 December, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Burnley have netted just five goals in 10 Premier League games this season, the second time they've scored five or fewer after 10 games in a season in the Premier League (also five in 2014/15)."

With Arsenal also struggling to score goals, under 2.5 goals should be backed at 1.9620/21.

Vardy can continue scoring

Leicester 2.111/10 v Brighton 3.953/1; The Draw 3.613/5
Sunday 13 December, 19:15
Live on Amazon Prime Video

"Since Brendan Rodgers' first Premier League match in charge of Leicester in March 2019, Jamie Vardy has scored 41 Premier League goals, eight more than any other player in the division in this time."

Against a defence as leaky as Brighton's Vardy is value at 1.9520/21 to score.

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Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 337.00 pts
Returned: 353.35 pts
P/L: +16.35 pts

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