Premier League Cheat Sheet: A tip for every match this weekend

Mohamed Salah
Will Liverpool be celebrating after their match with West Brom?

Dan Fitch uses Opta Stats to bring you the weekend Premier League tips and he fancies a motivated Liverpool to get the job done against relegated West Brom.

“West Bromwich Albion have lost their last 17 top-flight home league matches against the reigning champions by an aggregate score of 44-9. Their last win at the Hawthorns over the reigning champion was in 1980-81 against Liverpool.”

With the Baggies relegated and Liverpool needing a win as they chase a top four spot, back the visitors to win half-time/full-time at 1.834/5.

City can keep another clean sheet

Newcastle 13.5 v Manchester City 1.282/7; The Draw 6.86/1
Friday 14 May, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Manchester City have kept 16 clean sheets away from home in all competitions this season and are one away from equalling the all-time record by a top-flight team in a season, after Liverpool in 1975-76, Chelsea in 2003-04 and Man Utd in 2008-09, who all kept 17 on the road."

With Callum Wilson once again injured for Newcastle, Manchester City could be value at 2.1211/10 to win to nil.

Goals have started flowing for Burnley

Burnley 3.211/5 v Leeds 2.3211/8; The Draw 3.814/5
Saturday 15 May, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Leeds haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last nine away Premier League games, with only Sheffield United on a longer current run (22 games)."

Burnley have found goals easier to come by in recent weeks and over 2.5 goals can be backed at 1.728/11.

Saints will march in with three points

Southampton 2.1211/10 v Fulham 3.814/5; The Draw 3.711/4
Saturday 15 May, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Southampton have lost just three of their last 43 home Premier League matches against sides starting the day in the relegation zone (W29 D11), winning each of their last three such games at St. Mary's."

With Fulham already relegated, Southampton look too big at odds of 2.1211/10.

Hammers have started leaking

Brighton 2.982/1 v West Ham 2.56/4; The Draw 3.711/4
Saturday 15 May, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Brighton have never failed to score in their seven Premier League meetings with West Ham. The last four between the sides have ended level, while the Seagulls won each of the first three."

West Ham have conceded in each of their last eight games and both teams to score can be backed at 1.910/11.

Hosts finding goals hard to come by

Crystal Palace 3.211/5 v Aston Villa 2.47/5; The Draw 3.711/4
Sunday 16 May, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Crystal Palace have scored just two goals in their last six home Premier League matches (W1 D2 L3), with the Eagles scoring the fewest home goals in the division since the start of last season among the 17 teams to feature in both seasons (31)."

With Villa proving to be defensively solid, this should be a low scoring game. Under 2.5 goals is 1.9420/21.

Son shining under Mason

Tottenham 1.564/7 v Wolves 7.06/1; The Draw 4.57/2
Sunday 16 May, 14:05
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Tottenham's Son Heung-Min has been directly involved in four goals in three Premier League appearances under Ryan Mason (3 goals, 1 assist), scoring in each of his last three matches. He has only netted in four consecutive Premier League appearances once previously, doing so in April 2017."

Son can be backed at 2.68/5 to find the net.

Vital win for Liverpool in Champions League chase

West Brom 14.013/1 v Liverpool 1.261/4; The Draw 7.06/1
Sunday 16 May, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"West Bromwich Albion have lost their last 17 top-flight home league matches against the reigning champions by an aggregate score of 44-9. Their last win at the Hawthorns over the reigning champion was in 1980-81 against Liverpool."

With the Baggies relegated and Liverpool needing a win as they chase a top four spot, back the visitors to win half-time/full-time at 1.834/5.

Calvert-Lewin has tunnel vision

Everton 1.444/9 v Sheffield United 8.88/1; The Draw 4.84/1
Sunday 16 May, 19:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Everton's Dominic Calvert-Lewin - who played 12 times in all competitions for Sheffield United without scoring between April 2015 and August 2016 - has scored 16 Premier League goals this season without registering an assist; only Benni McCarthy in 2006-07 for Blackburn Rovers has scored more times without assisting a goal in a season in the competition (18 goals)."

Regardless of whether he assists or not in this match, Calvert-Lewin looks decent value at 2.01/1 to find the net.

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Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 442.00 pts
Returned: 451.85 pts
P/L: +9.85 pts

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