Opta

Opta Supercomputer vs Betfair Exchange: 22/1 Belgium hard to ignore & 17/10 England punt

Opta and Betfair

Dave Tindall compares Opta's Euro 2024 rankings to the odds on the Betfair exchange and Sportsbook to see which teams could offer value in Germany...


Betfair are offering customers a chance to earn a free bet each time the side they back to win Euro 2024 (£10 stake) scores a goal during the group stages. Do you opt for a side who is likely to go deep, like France, or, is your faith in a Portugal side who banged in 36 goals in 10 qualifying matches?

Romelu Lukaku is toward the top of the Golden Boot market after finishing the qualifying campaign as the top scorer with 14 goals - that was 64% of Belgium's 22 goals, so could he and the Red Devils be the side to back with the offer in mind?

Perhaps it is an outsider you fancy to surprise us all - like the much fancied Austria, Hungary or Ukraine, and a few goals in their opening three games could well pay you back for your faith in them before the tournament, and hope their big price takes you all the way!

Make sure you opt-in on the Betfair Sportsbook before the opening game and place a £10 bet (or £5 EW) in the Winner market to qualify!


Opta remain keen on Three Lions

Defeat to Iceland in their final warm-up was grim but England are still 4.84/1 favourites on the Exchange to win Euro 2024 in Germany.

Opta analysis agrees, with Gareth Southgate's men given a higher percentage chance of lifting the trophy than any of their 23 rivals.

Opta's Tournament Predictions give England a 20.4% chance of winning in Germany this summer which tallies almost identically with the Exchange's odds which imply a probability of 20.8%.

In short, patriotic punters will be pleased to see England rated so highly but value hunters will be looking elsewhere.

One reason England are so short is that Opta give them a 95.5% chance of clearing the first hurdle by getting out of the group to reach the knockout stages. That again marries up with the exchange's To Qualify price of 1.051/20.

That's due to England's favourable Group C which also features Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia - sides ranked 21st, 33rd and 57th in the current FIFA World Rankings compared to England's 4th.

Are Scotland worth a bet to sneak through?

Contrast that to Scotland's task with Steve Clarke's men facing three sides all 26th or higher in the FIFA rankings. The Scots, who open the tournament against hosts Germany on Friday, are the lowest ranked at 39th.

And yet, there is a window for Scotland as this year's format sees the four best third-best finishers progress to the knockout stages along with each group's top two.

With that in mind, Opta's Supercomputer gives Scotland a better than 50-50 chance of going through, rating their chances of making the last 16 at 58.4%.

That equates to odds of 1.715/7 so Scotland's Exchange odds of 2.26/5 to qualify make appeal.

Could Hungary or Turkiye follow in Greece's footsteps?

There's also a spot of value to be found in group rivals Hungary. Over on the Sportsbook, Dominik Szobozslai and co are 4/51.80 to make it through which outruns their Opta implied odds of 1.664/6.

On the outrights, if we like the idea of a shock outcome to go alongside Denmark in 1992 and Greece in 2004, Hungary at 150/1151.00 on the Sportsbook or 159/1160.00 on the Exchange are contenders given that Opta's implied odds of exactly 1% equate to 99/1100.00.

Let's not forget that Hungary beat England 4-0 at Wembley in the Nations League a couple of summers ago. And they haven't lost since Szoboszlai was appointed captain.

Perennial 'dark horses' Turkiye also stand out when looking further down the 'win' market.

Opta's 1.5% chance of the Turks winning equates to a 66/167.00 shot but the Exchange shows 109/1110.00 for Vincenzo Montella's team who have Portugal, Czech Republic and Georgia for company in Group F.

Tedesco's Belgium could be value to win

At the front end of the market, France and Germany's Exchange odds of 5.49/2 and 6.86/1 are in line with Opta's analysis while Spain and Portugal actually look short on value, the former 8.615/2 and the latter 9.08/1 when Opta's percentages work out at 9/110.00 and 10/111.00.

But there is some value beyond the front five in the betting.

The Netherlands, who won in 1988, are given a 5% chance by Opta which equates to 19/120.00. Their current Exchange odds are the other side of 20s at 2221/1.

Belgium are 2322/1 on the Exchange compared to Opta's implied odds of 21/122.00.

Note, though, the difference in how Opta see their respective chances of reaching the last 16.

Belgium are up against Ukraine, Romania and Slovakia in Group E while the Dutch must take on France, Poland and Austria in Group D.

Belgium are rated at 89.9% to make the last 16 but the Netherlands are down at 76%.

That assessment is reflected in the odds and if there's a bet to be had in Group D it would be to back Poland to sneak through. Opta give them a 45.1% chance, equating to 2.226/5, but the Exchange has the Poles at 2.6213/8 to qualify.

Swerve Modric & Co?

Two lays in the 'To Qualify' market? Croatia and Switzerland.

Both are expected to go through, with the Opta Supercomputer rating Croatia at 67.8% and Switzerland 61.5%.

But the exchange odds of 1.331/3 Croatia and 1.4840/85 Switzerland suggest the market is overestimating their chances of making the last 16 when comparing those prices to Opta's implied odds of 1.4740/85 and 1.635/8.

Finally, the Opta Supercomputer has also predicted how many points each team will collect in the group stage.

The assessment for England is 6.71 so seven points (two wins and a draw) at 23/103.30 looks a better bet than the full nine at 17/102.70.


Listen to Football...Only Bettor Euro 2024 preview with Alan Shearer


Now read Opta's Did you know? series here to find the quirkiest stats on each side heading to Germany!


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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.