The OPTA Premier League Golden Boot Preview: Five players to back up to 80/1

• Get Opta's five tips for Premier League top goalscorer 

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Listen to Football...Only Bettor Premier League season preview

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The Premier League is back, and with it comes a highly anticipated race for the Golden Boot.  

Mohamed Salah was the runaway winner of the award last season, firing in 29 goals to propel Liverpool to the title in Arne Slot's first season at Anfield. 

Salah was also a master creator, laying on 18 assists to equal the Premier League's single-season record for goal involvements, drawing level with Andrew Cole and Alan Shearer on 47. 

Alexander Isak and Erling Haaland ranked second and third respectively, and the former could yet end up as Salah's team-mate as he pushes to join Liverpool. 

That star trio will again hope to be near the top of the scoring charts, but with Betfair's Sportsbook paying four places for each-way bets, there are a host of other contenders who could also be worth a look at attractive prices.  

Arsenal and Manchester United hope they have finally found their frontmen, having spent big to bring in Viktor Gyökeres and Benjamin Sesko respectively, while some other top-flight attackers may have fallen under the radar based on Opta's data. 

Stick or twist with Haaland? 

It's always worth starting with Haaland when assessing the race to be named Premier League top goalscorer.  

Haaland smashed the competition record for goals in a single season during his first campaign at Manchester City in 2022/23, netting 36 times. That haul came from 28.5 expected goals (xG) - displaying the quality of Haaland's finishing, though it might also have hinted such a tally was not necessarily repeatable. 

The Norwegian followed that up by winning the Golden Boot again in 2023/24, though that time with only 27 goals. Rather than overperforming his xG, though, Haaland actually underperformed it by 2.3. His shot conversion rate also dropped from 29.3% in 2022/23 to 22.3% in 2023/24. 

However, he was still the player the majority were plumping for this time last year - indeed, he was 8/111.73 to win the 2024/25 Golden Boot.  

It was not to be, though, as City had a hugely disappointing season, and Haaland's goal output dropped by another five, down to 22 - seven shy of Salah's total. 

Haaland did, though, perform as would have been anticipated when it came to his 22.0 xG, and he missed time through injury. So, the issue wasn't necessarily Haaland's finishing. Despite the wealth of talent at Pep Guardiola's disposal, City could not generate the quantity or quality of chances for their number nine that they had previously. 

Kevin De Bruyne has moved on, but in Rayan Cherki, City have a new playmaker who will hope to form a devastating partnership with Haaland. 

Cherki led Ligue 1 for assists last season (11), while only Reims' Juanya Ito (83) created more chances than the France international's tally of 75 in the competition. The likes of Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva and new signing Tijjani Reijnders are no slouches in the creativity department either. 

Haaland should certainly have the ammunition to perform, but with his price as short as 6/42.50, there is better value elsewhere. 

Haaland averaged 0.72 goals per 90 minutes in the league last season and netted one goal per 31.6 touches on average, but he has missed seven matches in each of the last two campaigns. 

One City player who could offer more value - especially as an each-way selection - is Omar Marmoush at 50/151.00. 

Marmoush was the 11th-highest goalscorer among players in Europe's top five leagues last season, netting 28 times in all competitions. Seven of those strikes came in the Premier League for City following his January switch from Eintracht Frankfurt. 

Only Salah (11), Isak, Jarrod Bowen and Yoane Wissa (all eight) managed more Premier League goals after Marmoush's move to City. 

The Egyptian did outperform his xG across the campaign by 5.6, though that may have something to do with his potency from distance. No player from Europe's top five leagues could match his three direct free-kick goals, while four of Marmoush's league efforts for City came from outside the area.  

With Man City expected to improve significantly this season, Marmoush is an intriguing dark horse. 

Salah to shine again, or will new heroes rise? 

Salah's extraordinary 2024/25 efforts saw him break plenty of records, and he has more in his sights, including potentially being the first player to win the Golden Boot five times. 

He needs just two more goals to overtake Cole (187) to become the fourth-highest scorer in Premier League history, while he is seven goal involvements from surpassing Frank Lampard (279) to have the third-most in the competition. 

Salah averaged a league-leading 0.77 goals per 90 last season - of players to play over 600 minutes in 2024/25, only Jhon Duran (1.01) boasted a better return. 

Liverpool have lost Trent Alexander-Arnold's creativity, but they have filled the void with Jeremie Frimpong. Across the past two seasons, he ranks second for goal involvements (38 - 19 goals, 19 assists) of all defenders in Europe's top five leagues across all competitions, trailing only his former Bayer Leverkusen team-mate Alex Grimaldo (45). 

Frimpong is one possible supplier of chances for Salah, but you would expect Liverpool's primary playmaker to be Florian Wirtz, also signed from Leverkusen. 

The Reds smashed their transfer record to acquire the Germany international, who since making his Leverkusen debut in May 2020, has created 413 chances across all competitions. In that time, the only Bundesliga players to tee up more opportunities were Thomas Muller (445) and Joshua Kimmich (609). 

It is in the past two seasons, though, that Wirtz has established himself as one of Europe's best. No Bundesliga player provided as many assists (33) in all competitions as the 22-year-old after the start of the 2023/24 campaign, so like Haaland, Salah will be supplied with plenty of opportunities from those around him. 

Salah's 25.4 xG led the Premier League last season, and though his overperformance may not be sustainable, and he was far from at his best in the Community Shield on Sunday, the Egyptian represents far better value than Haaland at 13/27.50. 

Whether or not Isak signs, the main risk in backing Salah could be how many other goal threats Liverpool have, even with Luis Díaz and Darwin Nunez having departed. 

Cody Gakpo will want to build on an impressive season, and with Díaz leaving for Bayern Munich, there is a slot open on the left flank. At 100/1101.00, the Dutchman is clearly a longer shot, but he did score 10 league goals last season. 

He played 35 times in the top flight but only started 23 times. Of Liverpool players to feature for at least 900 minutes in the league last term, Gakpo had the third-best goals per 90 (0.46), the third-best shot conversion rate (17.5%) and the third-most shots on target per 90 (1.07).  

A word of warning, though. Gakpo did overperform his 7.1 xG by almost three. While that displays a high calibre of finishing, it may not be sustainable for him to overperform again. 

Then, there is new boy Hugo Ekitike, who had the second-highest xG (21.6) in the Bundesliga last season, behind only Serhou Guirassy (23.0), and led the competition for shots (117) and touches in the opposition box (206). 

He converted that xG total into 15 goals - a 6.6 underperformance. In this case, though, that could be a positive, as one would anticipate that finishing could revert to the mean, while Liverpool should provide even more chances for the youngster, who announced himself with a wonderful opener against Crystal Palace in the Community Shield - a game that the Reds went on to lose on penalties after a 2-2 draw at Wembley. 

Should he continue his upward trajectory and be more precise with his finishing, then a price of 17/118.00 could make Ekitike terrific value. 

Is Isak a better bet than Gyokeres?

One factor to keep in mind if considering Ekitike would be gametime. As it stands, he is Liverpool's first-choice centre-forward, but that could change should the Reds manage to get a deal done for Isak. 

It will not be easy to do and would represent a British record fee. Newcastle United are supposedly demanding £150m for the Sweden international, and with the Magpies so far unable to secure an elite replacement - missing out on Ekitike and Sesko - their stance seems to be that Isak is not going anywhere. 

Regardless of whether Isak stays put or heads to Anfield, many will feel that he cannot be ignored at a tempting 6/17.00. The prospect of him missing up to three gameweeks before the transfer window closes could put him on the back foot, but Isak also started slowly last season. 

He still managed to plunder 23 Premier League goals, becoming the first Newcastle player to score that many times in a single top-flight campaign since Shearer in 2001/02 (also 23). 

The 25-year-old has upped his goal output season-on-season since he joined Newcastle in 2022. Isak registered 20.4 xG last term - the third-most in the division - while his 23.2% shot conversion rate was higher than both Haaland (20.4%) and Salah (22.3%).  

Also coming in at 6/17.00 is another Swede - Arsenal's big-money addition from Sporting CP, Gyökeres.  

He was the leading scorer in Europe's top 10 leagues in 2024/25, scoring 39 goals, eight more than next-best Kylian Mbappé. Only Salah (47) registered more goal involvements in Europe's top 10 leagues than Gyökeres (46). 

In fact, since the start of his first season at Sporting (2023/24), Gyökeres has netted 68 league goals - more than any player in Europe's top five leagues in that time.  

A word of warning, however. Arsenal's 61.6 xG ranked just sixth in the Premier League last term, so Gyökeres is not joining a team that creates chances on a truly elite level. 

The outsiders to back for Golden Boot

For those who don't like to back a favourite, there are a few intriguing long shots. 

Since Unai Emery joined Aston Villa in October 2022, Ollie Watkins has scored 48 Premier League goals - a tally bettered by only Isak (52), Salah (63) and Haaland (68) in that time. 

Despite not always being a guaranteed starter last season, Watkins still bagged 16 goals, performing just above his 15.4 xG. At 25/126.00, he could offer excellent each-way value. 

Watkins is one of only three players to reach 15 Premier League goals in each of the last three seasons, with Haaland and Salah the others. His consistency makes him a great bet to place in the top four. 

With Son Heung-min leaving for MLS, Tottenham will be hoping the void is filled by Dominic Solanke. He scored 19 league goals for Bournemouth in 2023/24 to earn his big move to Spurs. Solanke did only manage nine Premier League goals last term, though he did only feature in 27 matches. If the England forward can stay fit, then he seems to the ideal penalty-box poacher for Thomas Frank, and could be a great punt at 33/134.00. 

Jean-Philippe Mateta got going with a fine penalty in the Community Shield on Sunday. Since Oliver Glasner's first game in charge of Palace (24 February 2024), the only Premier League players that have scored more goals than Mateta (31) in all competitions are Haaland (50), Salah (40) and Isak (38). The French forward is 50/151.00 on Betfair's sportsbook. 

Nicolas Jackson is a much longer shot at 90/191.00. He seems surplus to requirements at Chelsea and is a reported Newcastle target. The Senegal forward showed last year that he knows where the back of the net is, even if he does miss some big chances.  

He netted 10 times in the league and underperformed his 12.3 xG, so there's room for improvement. The Magpies ranked fourth for xG last season (65.4), so the creativity is there, and Jackson could flourish if he were to move to St James' Park or even another top-half team. 

Back Chelsea's Palmer but consider Pedro and Delap too 

At one stage last season, Chelsea looked set to challenge Liverpool for the title. Their form ultimately dropped off, and it is no surprise that their downturn coincided with the goals drying up for Cole Palmer. 

The England international failed to find the net in the league between January 14 and April 1, when he scored against Crystal Palace. He netted against Bournemouth two weeks later, and then again against Liverpool in May, to finish on 15 goals for the season from 17.3 xG.  

But Palmer's quality cannot be doubted, and the fact he was on 12 goals by mid-January shows just how good he was in the first half of last season. Had he kept that form up, he would have been right up there with Salah.  

The 23-year-old, who scored 22 goals in 2023/24 to finish second in the Golden Boot race, approaches the season on the back of a stellar two-goal showing in Chelsea's Club World Cup triumph over Paris Saint-Germain last month. 

In 71 Premier League games for Chelsea, Palmer has scored 37 times and at 14/115.00, he is the joint-fifth favourite in the Golden Boot betting.  

There is definitely value to be had here, though one cautionary statistic is Palmer's tally of penalties. Across the past two seasons, Palmer has put away 13 of 14 Premier League spot-kicks, trailing only Salah for penalty goals (14) in that time.  

Over a third of Palmer's goals, then, have come from the spot, so a punt on him may be reliant on Chelsea continuing to win as many penalties as they have in the last two years - they have won 17 since the start of 2023/24, behind only Liverpool (18). 

At the same 14/115.00 price is João Pedro. A £60m signing from Brighton, the Brazilian marked his Chelsea arrival in style at the Club World Cup, scoring three times in just 163 minutes. 

Liam Delap is likely to battle it out with João Pedro to lead Chelsea's line. A £30m acquisition from Ipswich Town, Delap netted 12 times for the Tractor Boys last season.  

Delap scored 11 goals from inside the box, which is highly impressive considering he had only 106 touches inside the opposition area. That means he averaged a goal every 9.6 touches inside the box - to put that into context, Salah's average was 13.5, Isak's 10.6 and Haaland's 10.7.  

If Delap gets the gametime and service in the danger zone, he will do damage, so don't necessarily be put off by a price of 75/176.00. 

Back Mbeumo to make his mark at 80/1 

Much of the focus at Manchester United will now be on Sesko, with a new out-and-out number nine now in place for Ruben Amorim (a penny for Rasmus Højlund's thoughts). 

Among players in Europe's top five leagues, Sesko was the youngest to net at least 20 goals across all competitions last term, so he will hope to hit the ground running at Old Trafford. 

Sesko also overperformed his 9.9 xG with 13 Bundesliga goals last season, and he starts the campaign with odds of 25/126.00.  

Punters may have reasons to overlook the Slovenian, particularly given he will not be on penalty duty and United have other proven forwards to share the load. 

The players likely to play either side of Sesko, both of whom boast impressive Premier League records, might be worth a glance for those expecting United to improve. Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo are 60/161.00 and 80/181.00 respectively. 

Cunha scored 15 goals in a Wolves team that struggled for large parts of last season and will look to take a talismanic role for his new club, too. The Brazilian is a threat from anywhere, with only new team-mate Bruno Fernandes matching his five goals from outside the area last term. 

Mbeumo, meanwhile, was in the form of his career for Brentford, and is seen as an ideal fit for Amorim's style of play. He started all the Bees' league matches and finished on 20 goals, which was the joint-fourth most along with Chris Wood, who might be on some radars at 100/1101.00.  

Cameroon international Mbeumo was involved in 166 open-play shot-ending sequences, 35 more than any of his team-mates, with Wissa next at 131.  

So, the quality is undoubtedly there for this United duo to be right among the Golden Boot contenders.  

A look at last term's xG data shows that both Cunha and Mbeumo overperformed. In fact, Mbeumo had the largest xG-goals differential in the league (7.7), while Cunha's was the third greatest at 6.4, just trailing Wood's 6.7. 

It would be a big ask for either of the pair to replicate that level of overperformance again, but each-way punters may feel they are worth a look at such prices, particularly with United's lack of European football meaning a settled starting XI and an improved league performance is likely in 2025/26. 

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Now read Premier League Tips 2025/26: Read our season preview including 1-20 prediction for every team

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