After a tough week, Kev's hoping to finish with a flourish in Serbia, as the hosts look to qualify for EURO 2020.
"Serbia have struggled against the top two in this group, and if Portugal take an early lead in Luxembourg, this could quickly become a dour affair."
Hosts to fall short
Serbia v Ukraine
Sunday 17 November, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports
We've been close many times, but have ended up distinctly short of cigars this week. We gave Belarus a three-goal start against Germany last night, and after a goalless 40 minutes, the visitors collapsed to lose 4-0. At 3-0 down, Belarus had a penalty saved by Manuel Neuer. I would unveil the list of German curses I've learned down the years, but this isn't the place.
We finish our stint in Serbia, because Ukraine are visiting, having already nailed down a place at EURO 2020. Serbia could still qualify as group runners-up, but with rivals Portugal finishing off their schedule in Luxembourg at the same time, it's fair to say hopes aren't high. A Portuguese win will see the Selecao qualify regardless.
Serbia have been outclassed by the big guns in this group. They were hammered 5-0 in Ukraine, and lost 4-2 at home to Portugal. My assumption is that Serbia are trading at 2.1211/10 to win this game based on motivation - they have to win, while Ukraine have nothing to play for. However, Andriy Shevchenko's side perhaps deserve more respect that that.
Ukraine have been outstanding in this campaign. They drew 0-0 in Portugal, and have since won all six of their qualifiers, including a superb 2-1 victory over the Portuguese last month. They also won three of their four matches in the Nations League.
If Portugal race into an early lead in Luxembourg, that could prove to be a serious body blow to Serbia, and this game could get very dull very quickly. I'll back Draw and Away in the Double Chance market at 1.8910/11.
Points Staked: 158
Points Returned: 144.5
P/L: -13.5 points
Back Draw and Away in the Double Chance market at 1.8910/11