This season's Score Predictor tips comes from Infogol, a free downloadable app that uses expected goals to generate the best betting tips and advice. Get your helping of correct score predictions here...
Easy home win for Reds
Liverpool vs Newcastle - SAT 12:30
Liverpool entered the international break top of the Premier League and the only team with a 100% winning record this season after their best defensive display of the campaign so far in a 3-0 win over Burnley (xG: BUR 0.65 - 1.23 LIV). Newcastle were rightly held to a draw by Watford in their last outing, but continue to impress defensively, conceding an average of just 1.38 xGA per game, and they have faced Arsenal and Tottenham. They will likely keep the score down a little bit, but are unlikely to score, with a 38% chance of BTTS and a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals, a comfortable 3-0 home win.
Back the 3-0 @ 7.613/2
All square at Amex
Brighton vs Burnley - SAT 15:00
Brighton were thumped 4-0 by Manchester City last time out, but were unfortunate to lose so heavily in what was a decent performance against the best team in the land (xG: MCI 1.88 - 1.06 BHA). Burnley also suffered a heavy defeat, and that loss to Liverpool was the first game in which they struggled to create good chances. A 53% chance of BTTS in this one, with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals, a competitive 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ 7.06/1
Leicester to remain unbeaten
Manchester United vs Leicester - SAT 15:00
Manchester United haven't been as bad as results suggest so far this season, as according to expected goals they have deserved to win all four of their matches. However, when you look at non-penalty expected goals, United have struggled in attack, averaging just 1.27 non-pen xGF per game. Leicester haven't disappointed so far this season, and put in their best display of the campaign against Bournemouth last time out (xG: LEI 2.38 - 0.56 BOU). Defensively the Foxes have been the best team in the league according to xG (0.74 xGA per game), and Infogol fancies them to get something from their trip to Old Trafford, with a 55% chance Leicester avoid defeat, and a 53% chance of BTTS, another frustrating 1-1 for United.
Back the 1-1 @ 7.613/2
Saints to go marching on
Sheffield United vs Southampton - SAT 15:00
Sheffield United put on a spirited comeback at Chelsea before the break, coming from 2-0 down to salvage a point, but their first half display was a bit worrying (1st Half xG: CHE 1.72 - 0.48 SHU). Southampton got a good but fortunate point against Manchester United, but prior to that game had been creating chances for fun, and that should continue here. Infogol makes Southampton 43% favourites to win this game, with a 56% chance of BTTS and a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals, a 1-2 Saints win.
Back the 1-2 @ 12.5
More problems for Spurs
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace - SAT 15:00
What is going on at Tottenham? On the face of it a 2-2 draw with Arsenal was a good result, but they were second best for most of the match, and again showcased a severe defensive vulnerability, with Spurs now averaging 1.80 xGA per game. Palace built on their fortunate win over Manchester United with a deserved one against Aston Villa, and they pose a serious threat to Tottenham on the counter attack. Infogol suggests opposing Spurs is the way to go here, giving Mauricio Pochettino's side a 55% chance of winning compared to Betfair's 71%, with a 52% chance of BTTS and 50% chance of under 2.5 goals, another disappointing result for Spurs, 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ 10.519/2
Wolves to get first win
Wolves vs Chelsea - SAT 15:00
Wolves were beaten for the first time this season against Everton last time out, but were very unfortunate to lose in what was their best performance of the season to date (xG: EVE 1.54 - 2.14 WOL). Chelsea were held 2-2 by Sheffield United in their most recent outing, as their defensive issues rumble on. They are now conceding an average of 1.42 xGA per game, a worry as they come up against a very capable Wolves attack. Infogol makes Wolves 39% favourites to win this game, in contrast to the market, with a 51% chance of BTTS, so the same scoreline as in the fixture last season is put forward, 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 12.011/1
Another comfortable win for City
Norwich vs Manchester City - SAT 17:30
Norwich were comfortably beaten by West Ham, yet another game in which they conceded good scoring chances, with their season average now up to 1.85 xGA per game. Manchester City were flattered by their 4-0 win over Brighton, but continue to be the best attacking team in the league. This should be a stroll for City against a wide-open Norwich side, and it really is a question of how many, with Infogol again taking the view that we will see under 3.5 goals (62%), so 0-3.
Back the 0-3 @ 9.617/2
Bournemouth defence exposed again
Bournemouth vs Everton - SUN 14:00
Bournemouth were beaten 3-1 by Leicester last time out, and continue to look shaky at the back (2.27 xGA per game), but do create good chances (1.47 xGF per game). Everton were fortunate to beat Wolves according to xG, in what was by far their worst defensive display of the season to date. They looked much more threatening in attack though, and can cause Bournemouth's backline all sorts of problems here, with Infogol giving them a 40% chance of winning, a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of BTTS, another win for the Toffees, 1-3.
Back the 1-3 @ 19.5
Flores to start with a point
Watford vs Arsenal - SUN 16:30
Watford have had an interesting international break, parting company with Javi Gracia and bringing back Quique Sánchez Flores for a second act. They have been unfortunate with results so far this season, with performances not being bad, with the main issue being that they haven't been taking their chances (2 goals, 5.2 xGF). Arsenal have been uninspiring so far this season, and rightly drew with Tottenham in the North London derby last time out, as they continue to concede good opportunities (1.75 xGA per game). In fact, according to xG, Watford have allowed on average only 0.05 more xGA than Arsenal, and that defensive process got Gracia sacked. BTTS has a 62% chance of happening here, with a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals, and Infogol suggests that Watford have a 55% chance of getting something from the game, an entertaining 2-2.
Back the 2-2 @ 13.5
Three in a row for West Ham
Aston Villa vs West Ham - MON 20:00
Villa may have been hard done by with a refereeing decision against Crystal Palace before the international break, but their overall performance was extremely poor yet again, especially defensively. They have so far averaged 1.99 xGA per game this season, while struggling in attack also (0.98 xGF). West Ham look to have hit their stride after a very slow start, beating Watford and Norwich thanks to two excellent attacking displays (3.90 and 2.28 xG). Manuel Pellegrini looks to have settled on a starting eleven that works, and one that incorporates all of his best attacking assets, and the Hammers will be looking forward to facing this Villa defence. West Ham look to be slightly underestimated by Betfair in this one (IG - 41%, BF - 36%), with a 51% chance of BTTS 'no' and 53% chance of under 2.5 goals, a cosy away win, 0-2.
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