France v England: Three Lions to suffer another indignity

Click here for France v England odds
Saturday 18 July, 22:00 kick-off
Live on BBC One
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami

Battle of the regretful on the cards

The World Cup dream died for both France and England this week, and both coaches have been lambasted for tactical decisions that backfired. Didier Deschamps' newly found sense of adventure in attack left his midfield undermanned and exposed against a Spain side that had a three-v-two advantage and that had Rodri back to his very best.

As for Thomas Tuchel, his decision to batten down the hatches against Argentina with over half an hour of play remaining rendered England toothless on the counter, and they collapsed to a 2-1 defeat having taken a second-half lead.

Tuchel has pretty much refused to accept blame or criticism for his decisions, and the FA have backed him to try to win a home-based European Championship in two years. Half the battle might be winning over players who were dismayed by the decision to retreat in the face of Argentine pressure, players who Tuchel has accused of lacking the DNA to keep the ball in pressure situations.

As for France, Deschamps is stepping down after this game, with Zinedine Zidane his replacement. Deschamps' 14-year tenure has only yielded one major trophy - the 2018 World Cup - but he has also delivered finals and semi-finals galore.

Golden Boot still in Mbappe's eyes

Neither team really wants to play this game, but one of the key subplots is France captain Kylian Mbappe's push for the Golden Boot. He is currently level with Lionel Messi on eight goals at the top of the list, but Messi has the edge because he's winning the assist battle 4-3.

Messi appears nailed on to be named as the tournament's top player, as he is trading at 1.132/15 to win the Golden Ball, with Spain's Rodri (priced at 13.012/1 currently) his only realistic competition.

Mbappe can be backed at 2.526/4 to win the Golden Boot, but he's odds-on to score against England in the Anytime Goalscorer market. On that basis I'd prefer to take the bigger price of him winning the Golden Boot rather than just backing him to score here.

Mbappe has looked razor-sharp for most of the World Cup, and against Spain his supply lines were severed by an excellent midfield display from Luis de la Fuente's team.

Alternatively you could include an Mbappe goal in a 9/52.80 treble on the Bet Builder, with France to win and Over 2.5 Goals.

A demoralised and drained England have had less time to rest and prepare, and barring the semi-final France have looked a team full of attacking intent and quality. Historical clashes bear little relevance to what will happen in Miami on Saturday, but for what it's worth France have won the nations' last two meetings, including the 2022 World Cup quarter-final.

As for the history of this play-off, there are almost always plenty of goals, as teams tend to release the handbrake. Eleven of the last 12 World Cup third place playoffs have featured three goals or more.

Take advantage of OddsBoost and back Kane and Dembele to shine

I was pleasantly surprised to see that you can get odds of evens in the OddsBoost section for both Harry Kane and Ousmane Dembele to have a shot on target each. Kane has rattled in six goals at this World Cup, but with one game to go and a two-goal deficit he is understandably 75.074/1 in the Golden Boot market. Apart from the Argentina semi-final, Kane has had at least one shot on target in every game of this World Cup.

As for Dembele, he scored a stunning hat-trick against Norway in the group stage and fired in a crucial second goal in the quarter-final win over Morocco. The PSG star and Ballon d'Or winner has had a shot on target in four of his seven games at this tournament, and he hit the target twice in the semi-final against Spain.

Now read our other World Cup previews here!