Midweek Football Tips: Best bets for Premier League, La Liga and Serie A

  • Max Liu
  • 4:00 min read
Manchester United midfielder Bruno Fernandes
Will Fernandes fire for United against Leicester?

Get our experts' best bets for the big games in the battle for the Premier League top four and La Liga title race on Tuesday and Wednesday...

"A Chelsea win and under 2.5 goals can be backed at 3.814/5. Some 14 of their 17 wins under Tuchel have seen this bet land."

Manchester United v Leicester: Both sides can oblige at Old Trafford

Manchester United v Leicester
Tuesday May 11, 18:00
BT Sport

Manchester United's five matches in 15 days (they play Liverpool on Thursday) begins with this top four clash at Old Trafford. So far United have held their nerve in their bid to finish as Premier League runners up. After a couple of poor results, though, Leicester are out to 1.845/6 for a top four finish.

Key Stat: Man Utd come into this contest unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League matches against Leicester (W8-D4-L0).

Mark O'Haire says: "Both Man Utd and Leicester are delivering an average 3.03 goals per-game across their Premier League match-ups this term, a joint-high along with Southampton. The two teams have also posted around a 60% success-rate for Over 2.5 Goals 2.1011/10 selections, with positive returns also produced when dipping into the Both Teams To Score 1.834/5 column.

"With United now secured in the top-four and potentially putting more emphasis on Thursday evening's fixture, a degree of rotation is expected, whilst a more expressive effort could be in order from the hosts. Leicester's aforementioned defensive woes will encourage the Red Devils and it's difficult to dismiss the home side getting on the scoresheet.

"Nevertheless, Leicester are the league's most consistent for scoring on the road with the Foxes also bagging in 11 of their 15 duels with top-half rivals. Indeed, the reverse ended in an enjoyable 2-2 draw at the KP and a repeat could well be on the cards. Considering the circumstances, Both Teams To Score appeals at 1.834/5."

Mark's bet: Back Both Teams To Score at 1.834/5 in Manchester United v Leicester

Napoli to keep pressure on high-flyers

Napoli v Udinese
Tuesday, 19:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Inter are the champions but the race for the top four is fascinating in Italy's top flight. Napoli are odds-on to grab one of the spots and getting three more points on the board here would give them a psychological edge over their rivals who all play the following day.

Key Stat: Napoli are unbeaten in six with four wins and two draws since a 2-1 reverse against Juventus.

Tom Victor says: An ability to create chances could be vital in settling a congested top-four battle, and Napoli have averaged 2.09 xGF across their last four games and scored 12 actual goals in those fixtures to climb back into fourth spot.

"Rino Gattuso's side needed a last-minute Tiemoué Bakayoko goal to win at Friuli in January, and Infogol's model anticipates another victory over Udinese on home soil."

Tom's bet: Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1

Southampton v Crystal Palace: Benteke to fire Palace to victory

Southampton v Crystal Palace
Tuesday 11 May, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports

A few months ago Southampton were riding high in the Premier League. Now, with just four games to play, they are in the bottom five. Thirteenth-placed Palace will be happier with their season but it would still be no surprise if they were under new management next term.

Key Stat: Crystal Palace striker Christian Benteke has scored 11 goals in 18 Premier League games played on Tuesdays, with only Alan Shearer (15) and Wayne Rooney (13) netting more on the day.

Paul Robinson says: "I thought that Over 2.5 would be around the 1.84/5 mark, so at 2.0421/20, I am more than happy to get involved. There have been three goals or more in four of Southampton's last seven on this ground, and the same can be said for five of Palace's last eight on their travels.

"Occasionally these end of season clashes can peter out into boring 0-0s, but they can also end up being abnormally high-scoring. The stats are on our side when it comes to Over 2.5 anyway, but not only am I going to back that, I'm going to take a chance on Over 4.5 at around the 7.87/1 mark.

"A good looking Bet Builder for this game has to feature Christina Benteke to score his fourth goal in seven outings, combined with Palace to win and Over 2.5 Goals in the match."

Paul's bet: Back Over 4.5 Goals @ 7.87/1

Levante v Barcelona: Messi and co. to get back on track

Levante v Barcelona
Tuesday, 21:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Barcelona drifted to 4.84/1 to win the La Liga title after their draw with new favourites Atletico Madrid 1.84/5 at the weekend. Ronald Koeman's men trail Atleti by two points with three to play.

Key Stat: Levante are without a win in five games (D1 L4).

Tom Victor says: "Barcelona found themselves frustrated at the Wanda Metropolitano on Saturday, failing to get a lucky break in a broadly even clash with Atlético Madrid, meaning Ronald Koeman's men probably need maximum points from their final three games to have any chance of the title.

messi_2021.jpg

"A trip to a Levante side averaging 1.83 xGA per home game might be the easiest of the trio, though, with Barça firm favourites at Ciutat de Valencia."

Tom's bet: Back the 1-2 @ 11.0010/1

Torino v AC Milan: Rossoneri to earn second straight win in Turin

Torino v AC Milan
Wednesday, 19:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Milan produce arguably their best performance of the season to win 3-0 at Juventus on Sunday - a win which means the Rossoneri are 1.232/9 for a top four finish with the champions drifting to 2.3611/8 and in serious danger of missing out. Now they go back to Turin and another three points is vital.

Key Stat: In Milan's last three matches (W2L1) only one team managed to score.

Tom Victor says: "A 3-0 victory over Juventus last weekend means Milan's fate is in their hands once more, and Stefano Pioli's side can make the most of that result by taking the points at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.

"The hosts are only narrow underdogs according to Infogol's model, as they continue to fight for their Serie A lives, and the Rossoneri may well find themselves needing to dig deep for victory."

Tom's bet: Back the 1-2 @ 8.207/1

Sassuolo v Juventus: Abysmal Old Lady could lose again

Sassuolo v Juventus
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Premier Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video

How the mighty are fallen. Juventus came into this Serie A season chasing a 10th title in a row. Now they find themselves fifth with three matches to play and odds against for a top four finish. It's not a huge surprise to everyone as our match previewer Dave Farrar said at the outset that 2020/21 could be the season their dominance ended.

Key Stat: Sassuolo have won five of their last six Serie A matches.

Dave Farrar says: "Juventus are the favourites at 1.695/7 to win this, with Sassuolo an insulting 5.59/2. It's a bizarre market, based only on Juve's big name, and we just need to work out the best way to play it.

"I wouldn't discourage you from backing Sassuolo in the Match Odds market, nor would I argue with supporting them with a 0.5 goal start on the Asian Handicap at 2.47/5. The price, though, that I like most, as it feels like it gives us real insurance, is to back Sassuolo with a goal start on the Asian Handicap at 1.910/11.

"It may seem like a cautious play, but it makes sense, and gives us our money back if Sassuolo were to lose by a single goal. That would be the limit of what Juve might achieve, and so it makes sense to us to play it this way."

Dave's bet: Back Sassuolo +1 on Asian Handicap v Juventus @ 1.910/11

Chelsea v Arsenal: Hosts will give Gunners the Blues

Chelsea v Arsenal
Wednesday 12 May, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Chelsea's remarkable transformation under Thomas Tuchel continued with a 2-1 win away to Manchester City. The West Londoners are heavy odds-on for a top four finish. For London rivals Arsenal finishing in the top six remains mathematically possible but unlikely as odds of 50.049/1 indicate.

Key Stat: Chelsea have not conceded in any of their last three home games.

Dan Fitch says: Chelsea are the 1.715/7 favourites, with the draw at 4.1 and Arsenal out at 5.79/2. Even allowing for the fact that Tuchel could rotate, that looks like a good price for a Chelsea win. They've beaten Real Madrid and Manchester City in their last two games.

"The three goals that we saw in Chelsea's match against Manchester City, was something of a rarity. Under 2.5 goals has proven to be a reliable bet since Tuchel took charge, with 21 of their 25 games seeing less than three goals. You can back under 2.5 goals to land again at odds of 1.865/6.

"A Chelsea win and under 2.5 goals can be backed at 3.814/5. Some 14 of their 17 wins under Tuchel have seen this bet land."

Dan's bet: Back Chelsea to beat Arsenal at 1.715/7

Atletico Madrid v Real Sociedad: Visitors' record does not inspire confidence

Atletico Madrid v Real Sociedad
Wednesday 12 May, 21:00
Live on LaLigaTV and Betfair Live Video

It's Atletico who perhaps have the toughest fixture of the title contenders in this round, as they host a Real Sociedad side that still need points to secure European qualification.

Key Stat: Atletico have kept clean sheets in four of their last five matches.

Dan Fitch says: "Atletico's form has been patchy over recent months, which has seen a seemingly unassailable lead dwindle to a slight one, but they have proved reliable at home of late. Simeone's side are unbeaten in their last five home games (W4 D1), winning each of the last four, with the draw coming against Real Madrid.

"Sociedad beat Elche 2-0 at the weekend, but their record against the top four is not inspiring (P7 D2 L5, losing the reverse fixture 2-0. Back Atletico to pick up a vital win at 1.774/5."

Dan's bet: Back Atletico Madrid to beat Real Sociedad at 1.774/5

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