Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides scoreline predictions from Serie A as the top four battle rages on...
After Sunday's nightmare against Milan, Juventus need to dust themselves off quickly ahead of a trip to a Sassuolo side with five wins from their last six.
Napoli to keep pressure on high-flyers
An ability to create chances could be vital in settling a congested top-four battle, and Napoli have averaged 2.09 xGF across their last four games and scored 12 actual goals in those fixtures to climb back into fourth spot. Rino Gattuso's side needed a last-minute Tiemoué Bakayoko goal to win at Friuli in January, and Infogol's model anticipates another victory over Udinese on home soil.
Cagliari to all but clinch safety with home win
Four games unbeaten have taken Fiorentina to the verge of mathematical safety, and Cagliari will hope the Viola's victory over Lazio isn't followed by an away win for Giuseppe Iachini's team. The hosts are rallying too, winning their six-pointer against Benevento to make it five unbeaten, and Infogol's model backs the Sardinian side to get the better of opponents who are averaging 1.72 xGA on the road.
Atalanta to dent Benevento's survival hopes
Relegation is looking like a distinct possibility for out-of-form Benevento, and a trip to Bergamo would be daunting even without an away average of 1.96 xGA. The home side have two winnable games before a crunch final day meeting with AC Milan, and a 3.33 xGF average across their last three matches (with 11 actual goals) explains why Infogol makes them heavy favourites.
Bologna to move clear of Genoa
Genoa are yet to mathematically seal their safety after successive defeats, and can't even consider themselves especially hard done by. They may see a trip to Bologna as the most winnable of their remaining games, but Siniša Mihajlović's hosts will be out for revenge after drawing a blank in the reverse fixture and are narrow favourites to take all three points at Renato Dall'Ara.
Inter to continue long victory lap
Roma's convincing victory over Crotone was a first league win in five, but they're not expected to make it back-to-back wins against the champions. Inter put five past Sampdoria over the weekend, and are within touching distance of a first 90-point season since 2006/07. Infogol can see the Giallorossi getting on the scoresheet, but is backing Antonio Conte's men to take the points.
Lazio to secure local bragging rights for the season
Three points against Parma will ensure Lazio finish level with neighbours Roma at the very worst, and Simone Inzaghi's team have plenty in their favour against their already-relegated midweek opponents. Parma's 5-2 reverse against Atalanta was a sixth-straight defeat, and Roberto D'Aversa's team are given just a 15% chance by Infogol's model after averaging 1.81 xGA per game away from home this term.
Samp to move closer to top-half finish
Spezia are now the team in immediate danger of being caught by 18th-place Benevento, and Vincenzo Italiano's side will be concerned by their away average of 1.99 xGA per match. They're up against a Sampdoria side who will be assured of a top-half finish if they win and the teams in 11th and 12th fail to do so, and back-to-back home successes can make them feel confident of emerging victorious.
Juventus to remain in top four contention
After Sunday's nightmare against Milan, Juventus need to dust themselves off quickly ahead of a trip to a Sassuolo side with five wins from their last six. Infogol makes the reigning champions favourites, and they won the reverse fixture with the help of a Pedro Obiang red card, but Andrea Pirlo's side will need to have their wits about them considering the precariousness of their top four hopes.
Milan to earn a second straight win in Turin
A 3-0 victory at the Allianz Stadium means Milan's fate is in their hands once more, and Stefano Pioli's side can make the most of that result by taking the points at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. The hosts are only narrow underdogs according to Infogol's model, as they continue to fight for their Serie A lives, and the Rossoneri may well find themselves needing to dig deep for victory.
Crotone to miss chance to climb off the bottom
Serse Cosmi hasn't been able to save Crotone from relegation, but the veteran manager has three games left to try to lift the Rossoblù off the foot of the table. Infogol's model gives them a 28% chance of victory at Ezio Scida, but the visitors - themselves attempting to stay in the top half - are favoured to come away with a first win since early April and complete a league double over the relegated side.
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