Southampton v Crystal Palace: Benteke to fire Palace to victory

Southampton v Crystal Palace
Tuesday 11 May, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports

A big summer for Hasenhüttl

It was only a few months ago that Southampton were riding high at the top of the Premier League. Now, with just four games to play, they are in the bottom five, with the only saving grace being that they have accumulated enough points to be pretty much safe from relegation.

It is in the second half of matches that things have generally been going wrong, which indicates that their fitness levels might not be what they should be.

They suffered their fifth defeat in seven league outings at Anfield on Saturday, and while they only went down 2-0, the Reds hadn't beaten a team by two goals or more at home since December 6th.

Palace avoiding the beach so far

The Eagles surprised me by winning at Bramall Lane at the weekend, and while the Blades are the worst team in the league, Palace can often finish a campaign poorly.

Roy Hodgson's men played very well in their 2-0 victory, and given that they were already safe anyway, it goes against my theory that they would coast through to the end of the campaign.

The attacking players especially looked good at Bramall Lane, with Christian Benteke and Eberechi Eze getting on the scoresheet.

Eagles to fly at St Mary's

The Saints are trading as the 2.166/5 favourites on the Betfair Exchange, with Palace at 3.613/5 and the draw at 3.7511/4.

An away win is tempting me given how poorly Southampton have been playing, especially with Danny Ings remaining injured.

Ralph Hasenhüttl's side have actually only lost one of their last four at St Mary's, but then they have only won one too. Prior to those four matches though, they lost three on the bounce - Arsenal, Aston Villa and Wolves all picking up maximum points.

As already mentioned, Palace won away from Selhurst Park on Saturday, and in 2021 they have also beaten Newcastle and Brighton on their own patch. The other thing in their favour is that they have been managing to find the net on the road.

Goal trend to continue

It's a toss-up when it comes to Over/Under 2.5 Goals as, at time of writing, the prices are 2.0421/20 and 1.9420/21 respectively.

I thought that Over 2.5 would be around the 1.84/5 mark, so at 2.0421/20, I am more than happy to get involved.

There have been three goals or more in four of Southampton's last seven on this ground, and the same can be said for five of Palace's last eight on their travels.

Occasionally these end of season clashes can peter out into boring 0-0s, but they can also end up being abnormally high-scoring. The stats are on our side when it comes to Over 2.5 anyway, but not only am I going to back that, I'm going to take a chance on Over 4.5 at around the 7.87/1 mark.

Bet Builder

A good looking Bet Builder for this game has to feature Christina Benteke to score, simply because of this wonderful Opta stat -

Crystal Palace striker Christian Benteke has scored 11 goals in 18 Premier League games played on Tuesdays, with only Alan Shearer (15) and Wayne Rooney (13) netting more on this weekday in the competition.

It's 10.21921/100 for the Belgian striker to score his fourth goal in seven outings, combined with Palace to win and Over 2.5 Goals in the match.